长期贸易战会给全世界人一种自己积蓄在被抢劫的感觉 [英国媒体]

A long trade war will leave the world feeling its piggy bank was robbed

长期贸易战会给全世界人一种自己积蓄在被抢劫的感觉



Don’t be fooled by China’s as-yet muted response: a decades-long battle with the US over tariffs is a real, and scary, possibility

不要被中国迄今沉默的回应所愚弄：与美国在关税问题上长达数十年的斗争确实有这种真实可怕的概率。

trade war between China and the US that lasts 20 years or more is a barely believable idea. It offers an Orwellian vision of ceaseless and debilitating battles between trading blocs – battles that give politicians a convenient enemy and the leverage to impose themselves domestically.

中国和美国之间贸易战会持续20年甚至更久，这是一个难以置信的想法。这展示了一种奥威尔式的愿景，即在贸易集团之间无休止的、令人衰弱的战斗目的在于给政客们一个敌人，还能在国内强加自己的影响力。



Ma says Beijing should now understand that its 40-year project of improving China’s living standards by exporting huge amounts of stuff to the US is over. The next 40 years will be about exporting to the fast-expanding economies of the Middle East and Africa and even to Europe, which lies at the end of the Silk Road.

马云说，北京现在应该明白通过向美国出口大量商品来改善中国生活水平的40年旧式发展方法该结束了。接下来40年里中国该向快速扩张的中东和非洲市场扩张，甚至向通往丝绸之路尽头的欧洲扩张。

It is a situation that China’s communist leaders have been considering since the 2008 financial crash, when it became obvious that the inherent instability of the US economy was a long-term problem.

这种情况是自2008年金融危机以来中国领导人一直在考虑的状况。当很明显美国经济存在一个固有不稳定周期问题时就有了这种想法。



So the US remains an important destination for Chinese goods, and will do for some time. Maybe that is why Beijing followed the softly, softly approach adopted by Mexico and Canada in response to Trump’s belligerence.

因此美国仍是中国商品的重要出口目的地，且将会持续很长一段时间。也许这就是为什么北京追随墨西哥和加拿大采取的温和、温和的方式来回应特朗普的挑衅行为。

Last week, China increased trade tariffs on only $60bn of US goods, in response to the US’s slapping duties on $200bn of Chinese imports. Beijing knows that with the US midterm elections looming in November, the US president was primed to go further if provoked.

上周中国仅对600亿美元美国商品提高了贸易关税，以回应美国对中国2000亿美元商品的关税。北京方面也知道随着11月美国中期选举临近。如果被激怒，美国总统会采取进一步行动。

Sure enough Trump tweeted: “There will be great and fast economic retaliation against China if our farmers, ranchers and/or industrial workers are targeted!”

果然，特朗普在推特上写道：“如果我们的农民、农场主和/或工业工人成为袭击目标，将对中国进行迅速有力的报复！”

The outcome of these skirmishes matters. Yet there is an inevitability about a long-drawn-out war, given that both countries are – almost at the same time – entering an arc of decline brought on by ageing populations. This makes the battle for technological advances and intellectual property even more intense.

这些小冲突的结果很重要。然而一场旷日持久的战争不可避免，因为这两个国家几乎同时处于人口老龄化带来的衰落边缘。这使得技术进步和知识产权的斗争更加激烈。



That, however, could just be wishful thinking.

然而，这只是一厢情愿。