中国的崛起将在西方建立新的政治裂缝 [英国媒体]

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：重定向------------



Whether he wins or loses the US presidency next November Donald Trump has already come up with one of the defining slogans of 2016 – “Make America great again”.

无论唐纳德·特朗普是否在十一月赢得美国总统大选，他都已经提出了2016年的经典口号之一----“让美国再次伟大”。

Trump’s vision of an America in precipitous decline is all-encompassing. At home he points to falling living standards for many Americans and the disappearance of well-paid manufacturing jobs. Overseas he claims the world is laughing at the US and laments that “we don’t win any more”.

特朗普对一个急剧下滑的美国的愿景包罗万象。对国内，他指出很多美国人的生活水平下降，高薪酬的制造岗位流失。对国外，他声称全世界在笑话美国，并且哀叹：“我们已经什么都赢不了了。”

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：整天喵喵喵------------

Many in Europe are tempted to see Trump as an “only in America” aberration. Yet the fear of economic and geopolitical decline that Trump is capitalising upon is widely visible across the west. The coalition of frustrated working-class voters and nostalgic nationalists that the Republican has put together is uncomfortably reminiscent of the alliance that voted for Brexit in the UK. Trump’s “make America great again” mantra has an echo of the Brexit campaign’s winning slogan – “Take back control”. Nor is this is just an Anglo-American phenomenon. Across the EU including in France the Netherlands Italy and Poland protectionists and nationalists are gaining ground.

许多在欧洲的人都误以为特朗普是一个“只在美国”的现象。然而，整个西方都可以普遍看到令特朗普获利的对经济和地缘政治衰落的恐惧。共和党拼凑起来的受挫的工人阶级选民和怀旧的民族主义者联盟令人不安地联想起投票退欧的英国的联盟。特朗普的“让美国再次伟大“的咒语，得到了赢得英国退欧投票运动的口号回应：“收回控制权”。这也不是仅仅存在于盎格鲁萨克森中的现象。整个欧盟包括法国、荷兰、意大利和波兰的保护主义者和民族主义者都开始抬头。

-------------译者：magicqueen99-审核者：重定向------------



As Trump might put it: “Something’s going on.” That something is a historic shift in economic and geopolitical power that is bringing to an end a 500-year period in which western nations have dominated global affairs. This erosion of the west’s privileged position in world affairs is creating new economic geopolitical and even psychological pressures in both the US and the EU.

正如特朗普可能会说的：“有些事情正在发生”。这正在发生的事就是经济力量和地缘政治力量的历史性转变，它宣告了为期500年的西方国家主导全球事务的时代的终结。这种西方在国际事务中特权地位的逐渐丧失，正在创造新的经济地缘政治，甚至给美国和欧盟带来了心理压力。

The driving force of this change is the extraordinary economic development of Asia over the past 50 years. In 2014 the IMF reported that measured in purchasing power China is now the world’s largest economy. The US had held this title since 1871 when it displaced the UK; now China is number one. The rise of China is just part of a broader shift of economic power towards Asia. The IMF reports that three of the world’s four largest economies are now in Asia. China is first the US is second India third and Japan fourth.

这种变化的驱动力是亚洲过去50年来非凡的经济发展。2014年的国际货币基金组织报告说，以购买力衡量，中国现在是世界上最大的经济体。自1871以来，美国取代英国，一直是头号经济体；现在中国排第一。中国的崛起只是更广泛的经济力量向亚洲转移的一部分。国际货币基金组织报告说，世界四大经济体中的三个都在亚洲。中国第一，美国第二，印度第三，日本第四。


-------------译者：重定向-审核者：重定向------------

Tony Dean 17h ago
Let the Asians worry about China and let the Europeans worry about Putin. We in the US have put our neck out for too long to benefit these peoples. If the Germans who are practically right next door don't want to help the Baltics repulse Russia why should the US?

让亚洲人担忧中国让欧洲人担心普京。为了帮助这些人我们美国人已经把脖子伸得太长了。实际上做为隔壁的德国人都不想帮助波罗的海诸国对抗俄罗斯那么为什么美国要去做？

brianboru1014  Tony Dean 13h ago
As the world pie has shrunk and as the US owns or controls less and less of it It is indeed time for the US to retreat everywhere. We simply can't afford what the Europeans handed us on a plate 70 years ago

随着世界蛋糕的缩水和美国对其拥有或控制的越来越少，的确到了美国从各处撤退收缩的时候了。我们根本无法轻易地承担70年前欧洲人交给我们的一切。

GeorgeButterworth 19h ago
So you reckon that the US will go to war with China over American control of the South China Sea ? 
I'd be very surprised.

所以你认为美国会为了控制南海而和中国开战？
我会感到很惊讶的。

GorCro  GeorgeButterworth 17h ago
There will be confrontations. China cannot just claim waters where shipping lanes pass through and neighboring countries have claims also. The US will help act as a peacekeeper.

那会有对抗。中国不能对有航道途径并有其他相邻国家也在声索的水域提出声索，美国将会以一个和平卫士的形象帮助他们。

 -------------译者：半开天窗-审核者：整天喵喵喵------------

GeorgeButterworth  GorCro 15h ago
The problem is that the Americans have total control of the South China Sea and are not prepared to relinquish that control. 
Why ? 
Because they can pressure China by threatening Chinese trade.
The US 7th Fleet makes regular patrols from its base in Japan. An Aircraft Carrier Strike Group often accompanied by submarines. 
Yes the Americans call it a Strike Group.
The Americans are the belligerents here.

问题是美国完全控制着南中国海并且不打算放弃这种控制权。为什么？因为美国可以威胁通过南海的中国贸易来向中国施压。美国第七舰队以日本为基地进行定期的巡航。一个航母战斗群经常伴随着核潜艇。没错，美国人叫做一个战斗群。美国人才是这里的交战方。

-------------译者：半开天窗-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Kirkaiya  GeorgeButterworth 13h ago
It's completely untrue to claim that America has "total control of the South China sea". In fact the U.S. Navy along with navies from Japan the Philippines Vietnam Indonesia Australia and even Taiwan all operate in the South China sea and four of those countries (notably NOT the U.S.) have claims on land and sea there. The point is that no country can legitimately claim the entirety of the sea as China has done. And given China's childish and aggressive behavior they've managed to accomplish only pushing countries like Vietnam closer to their former opponent (the U.S.)
Ultimately the decision will be China's over whether to act on threats to strike Australia or to attack and invade Taiwan in order to force "re-unification" (eg subjugation) on it's currently free people. And in some cases yes the United States may risk war especially if China were to attack Australia or Japan or probably Taiwan.

说美国对南中国海有完全的控制权是完全不对的。事实上美国海军是伴随着日本海军。菲律宾，越南，印度尼西亚，澳大利亚甚至台湾都在南海活动，并且这四个国家（显然没有美国）都对南海的陆地与海洋提出声索。关键是没有国家像中国做的一样对整个南中国海提出声索。中国现在做的这些幼稚并具有侵略性的行为只会把像越南这样的国家推到他们以前的敌人那一边（美国）。 
最终，决定将在于中国是否会威胁打击澳大利亚，或者武力入侵台湾强迫那里自由的人民统一。在一些情况下，是的，如果中国攻击澳大利亚或日本或是台湾，美国可能会冒着战争的危险。

-------------译者：ljlovermb-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

frankieboy 20h ago
"It is now giving way to an epoch that looks altogether darker and more dangerous."
You mean like before the First World War?

"这里将进入一个更加黑暗和危险的时代."
你的意思是像一战之前的景象？

simaqingshan 20h ago
I like trump very muchhope him to win the hillary in the campaign

我很希望特朗普能在竞选中赢得对希拉里的胜利

GorCro  simaqingshan 17h ago
Trump has no chance. He has support from a very limited demographic. And the man is an imbecile; a loutish cretinous boor. He is a bully and a coward. In short he is a Big League Loser.

特朗普没有机会。支持他的人数有限。他是个傻瓜和粗野的白痴。他是一个恶棍和一个懦夫。总之，他是个loser。

-------------译者：重定向-审核者：重定向------------

Azzathemerciful 21h ago
Sorry to say but I think it will be dictatorships and regimes like those found in China and Russia that will have an increasing influence on the world stage over the course of this century.
Democracy in the West is in crisis because its leaders are little more than vassals for multinationals that have no regard for the populations where they are supposed to serve. US aligned democracies are being manipulated by the likes of Goldman Sachs and the IMF at every turn (Brazil a most recent example) leading to more inequality at a time when the increasing abundance that technology engineering and science can provide should see this reverse drastically.
China on the other hand does not need to kotow to banks or energy companies and can plan 50 years ahead with ease. The way they operate isn't pretty but if we don't pull our fingers out these places will be heavenly in comparison to what we've devolved into.

遗憾的是，我认为在本世纪像中俄这样的独裁和政权国家将在世界舞台上拥有越来越多的影响力。
因为西方的领导人为跨国公司奴役而没有为他们理应服务的人们考虑，西方的民主正因此遭遇危机。同美国结盟的民主国家正被诸如高盛和国际货币基金组织这样的机构所操纵（巴西就是一个最近的例子）从而导致更多的不公平，而不断发展的技术和科学成果本应该彻底的逆转这一结果。
另一方面中国不必向跨国公司和能源公司磕头并且他们能轻松的做长达50年的计划。他们的操作方式不漂亮，但是如果我们还不努力的话，这些国家和我们相比简直就是天堂。

 -------------译者：zaze-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

GeorgeButterworth  Azzathemerciful 19h ago
Yes it's the self serving multi national corporations and authoritarian nations and empires which are currently prospering and are well set up to achieve further success.

是的，现在只有利我型的跨国企业、集权国家和帝国主义国家取得发展，也只有它们为未来取得成功做好了准备。

paoburen  Azzathemerciful 15h ago
China can plan 50 years ahead with ease? You clearly have little understanding of how banking works. The Chinese since 2008 have used massive fiscal monetary and loan injections to spur domestic growth which has only hampered them for the foreseeable future. The Chinese borrowed against themselves to create growth when 20%+ of their GDP -- i.e. exports -- dried up -- and now they need to pay for it. All of the empty apartments malls and excess inventory need to be paid for because it was borrowed to produce but they cannot sell it at the prices asked because locals do not have sufficient income.

中国能轻松为未来50年做好计划吗？你对银行学显然一无所知。中国人自从2008年用了大量财政货币和贷款注入，以刺激国内增长，但这样只会在可预见的未来阻碍他们自己。中国人向他们自己（的未来）借钱来创造增长，当他们GDP的20%——出口业务——枯竭了，他们现在就需要（为他们借的钱）还账了。所有那些空空如也的公寓、商场和挤压的库存得有人来偿还，因为这些东西都靠借来的钱制造的，但是以他们的价格根本卖不出去，因为以中国当地人的收入根本买不起。

One issue with Chinese GDP is they calculate it based on production or finished production instead of sales. For example if I produce apartments I only need to build it and get an inspection to say it is finished in order to calculate my apartment as GDP growth I don't need to have a buyer purchase it. Or if I produce widgets I only need to produce the widget I don't need to sell it to any store/re-seller to calculate it as GDP.

一个和中国GDP有关的问题是，他们是基于生产而不是基于销售来计算GDP的。举个例子，如果我造了一栋公寓，我只需要建造它然后找人来检验它，我就可以说我建的公寓可以计算入GDP中了，而不需要找任何买家。或者如果我造小饰品，我只需要把它们造出来而不需要把它们卖给任何商店或者分销者就可以把它们算入GDP.

China does not have the sort of leeway you think because in the end math accounting and finance rule. You can play and tweak and manipulate for only so long before it all comes back to the average.

中国不具有你所认为的那种回旋余地，因为最终发号施令的是数学，会计和金融。你只能玩弄和操纵那么一小段时间，最终还是得回归正常状态。

-------------译者：重定向-审核者：zaze------------

whitewolfe 21h ago
I am not very convinced about the growth of China.
There is no doubt that the country has gone through an economic miracle since the early 80s but current growth (since 2008 crash) has been fuelled by vast amounts of debt. And no one really knows that the numbers are since the Chinese have a habit of lying about the real numbers.
China remains a poor country its population is rapidly aging and the workforce has been shrinking (1 child policy) for the last 3/4 years (depending on the numbers).
For the communist party to keep things quiet it will require even more spending on social welfare programs but unlike EU/USA China is not that rich.
The industrial economy has a Huge Overcapacity that will require consolidation and millions of well paid jobs to be lost. And as the costs of manufacturing go up (we have seen it in the textile industry) companies will move their factories to cheaper places such as Vietnam Bangladesh etc.
And there is no real visibility about political reforms it is easy to buy social peace during rapid economic growth. Time will tell if China can manage social peace if the debt bubble bursts.

我并不太确信中国的增长。
毫无疑问中国自80年代初期以来创造了一个经济奇迹，但是目前的发展（自200年金融危机以来）都是靠巨大的债务在支撑着。基于中国人对真实数字有撒谎的习惯没有人真正知道确切的数字。
中国依旧是一个贫穷的国家，它的人口正快速老龄化并且最近3、4年（依数字而定）劳动力开始萎缩。
共产党为了维持稳定需要实行更多社会福利政策但不像欧盟和美国中国没有那么多钱。
产能过剩的工业经济需要整合，将会有数百万的高薪工作消失。随着制造成本的上升（如我们在纺织行业所见到的）公司开始将他们的工厂转移到更便宜的地方比如越南和孟加拉等。、
没有真正可见的政治改革，它通过快速的经济增长买来社会稳定。时间会证明当债务泡沫破灭时中国还能否保持社会稳定。

 -------------译者：mifantasy-审核者：zaze------------

GeorgeButterworth  whitewolfe 19h ago
Growth of nations and businesses is always fueled by debt. 
Just as 
The family advances by taking on massive debts starting with the mortgage so they can own their own home.

国家和商业的增长通常都是用债务为动力的，就像一个家庭通常是由按揭贷款开始承担巨额的债务，最后才能拥有自己的房子。

paoburen  whitewolfe 15h ago
Currently in China there are many illegal immigrants for example from Vietnam that work for lower wages than locals will accept.

目前在中国有很多的非法移民，比如越南人会为了得到工作而拿比当地人愿意接受的更低的工资

paoburen  GeorgeButterworth 15h ago
But I would not get a mortgage of 1 million on a house only worth half a million...
I know a guy who just bought three parking spots (his family has two cars) because hey all his friends were doing it! Debt doesn't matter everything increases in value forever!
This logic of debt without proper research is faulty. A good business needs to find a market find a demand and supply that demand. In order to supply that demand debt will likely be used. To simply use debt to buy buy buy is like playing the boardgame Monopoly.

但是一座只值50万的房子是无法贷得100万的。
我认识一个伙计家里买了3个车位（他家只有2辆车）只是因为他的朋友都这么干。所以欠债多少并不重要，因为事物的价值总在上涨。
这个关于债务的逻辑没有经过合适的调查是错误的。一个好的商业需要去找到一个市场，找到市场需求并且满足这个需求。为了满足这个市场需求债务将会派上用处。如果仅仅只是简单的借贷来买买买就犹如自己玩棋盘游戏，这是不会有进步的。

-------------译者：mifantasy-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Sullaa 21h ago
Trading with China does not seem to benefit anyone in the west apart from CEOs who can get their goods made on the cheap. I think we'll regret giving so much money and technology to a country with such a terrible system of government soon enough and for what benefit to the average consumer here how much of the savings these company's are making do we see? https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/c5700.html

和中国做交易似乎对任何人都没有益处，当然除了公司高管们，因为他们的商品可以低成本生产。我认为我们总有一天我们会后悔因为给了这么多钱和技术给这个拥有糟糕系统的政府。普通消费者获得了什么好处，这些公司省了多少成本，我们知道吗？

KeithMC 22h ago
Nuke em! That's the only answer. Show em whose boss still. Palmerston was right!

核平他们！这是唯一的答案。告诉他们谁才是老大。Palmerston 是对的

-------------译者：zaze-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

canbeanybody  Coops73 21h ago
Where is "China threat" from?

“中国威胁论”从何而来？

OverPopulationCrisis  Coops73 21h ago
They're doing tremendously better than the European unx. 
And the EU is failing in large part due to the calamitous Eurozone. 
It's pulling them down like a fouled anchor 
And they refuse to cut it away.
Davy Jones' Locker awaits.

他们比欧盟做的好太多了。
多灾多难的欧元区正在让欧盟分裂为几个大的部分。
欧元像一只被缠住的锚一样把欧盟拖下水越陷越深。
但是欧盟却不愿意将欧元斩断。
大卫·琼斯的储藏柜正等着（欧盟）。

Shenmejoe  OverPopulationCrisis 13h ago
Ah yes the Eurozone ! 
Bad news for every member except Germany. 
And yes 
The political European unx may well fail as a consequence of the EZ.

啊，对，欧元区！
它对于任何除德国以外的其他成员来说都是个坏消息。
而政治上的欧盟也将因为欧元区而失败。

blutgraetsche 23h ago
The biggest problem for the West is not China but how the concept of a united 'West' has been eroding for years. China's best bet for 'world domination' is not confrontation but adapting the 'divide and conquer' strategy that the West so successfully used for centuries.

最大的问题不是中国，而是“统一的西方”这个理念在这些年受到越来越多的侵蚀。中国想取得“世界霸权”，最好的选择不是对抗，而是学会“分而治之”这个西方成功运用了好几个世纪的战略。

 -------------译者：zaze-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Coops73  blutgraetsche 23h ago
Luckily (or not depending on your position) China is dealing with its neighbours so clumsily that they are coming together (and getting closer to the US); quite the opposite of divide and conquer.

幸运地（或者不幸地，取决于你的位置）中国和它的邻居打交道的方式如此笨拙，以至于中国的邻居们都一起（向美国靠拢）；和“分而治之”完全相反。

OverPopulationCrisis  Coops73 21h ago
China's neighbours are so weak as to be irrelevant.
Several of them are American vassals which again puts the focus on the US orchestrating opposition to China's existence.

中国的邻居都太弱了造不成什么影响力。他们中的一些完全就是美国的奴仆，只想着在美国扼杀中国存在的精心策划的棋局中占有一席。

OverPopulationCrisis  blutgraetsche 21h ago
World domination is exercised by the US. 
God 
They even obxt to the Chinese navy leaving their own coastal waters. 
Seems that when they do it upsets the US 7th Fleet which regards all the China Seas and the Indian Ocean as being their exclusive domain.

实施世界霸权的是美国。
天哪，他们甚至想将中国海军驱离他们自己的沿岸水域。
中国海军在自己家门口巡逻似乎惹恼了美国第七舰队。在第七舰队眼里所以的中国海域和印度洋海域都是他们的专属领地。