印度会让英国希望签订贸易协议的愿望落空吗？ [英国媒体]

Will India dash UK trade deal hopes?

印度会让英国希望签订贸易协议的愿望落空吗？

文 / Justin Rowlatt（BBC驻南亚记者） 



On Sunday Theresa May will land in smoggy Delhi with a large entourage of diplomats, advisers, business people and press in tow.

这个星期天特蕾莎•梅将会带着大批的外交官，政策顾问，商业代表团和记者团，抵达雾霾中的新德里。

This is an important visit. It is the new British prime minister's first bilateral meeting outside Europe, the first step in her mission to "forge a new global role for the UK".

这是一次非常重要的访问。此次访问是英国新首相首次与非欧盟国家进行双边会谈，同时这也是她“为英国塑造新的全球角色”任务中的第一步。

It is obvious why she has chosen India. Where better to demonstrate the world of opportunity that awaits a post-Brexit Britain?

她选择印度作为非欧盟首访国家的目的很明显，就是为了更好地证明英国在退欧之后会在世界上有更多机会。

India is now the world's fastest growing large economy, with GDP growth of more than 7% a year and a 1.25 billion-strong market of increasingly wealthy consumers.

印度现在是世界几大经济体中增速最快的，GDP每年增长7%以上，是一个拥有12.5亿人的消费需求不断增长的强劲市场。

There should be a lot of warm words about the two countries' long-standing ties, their special relationship and their shared values.

有很多温暖的词汇可以用来描述两国悠久的历史纽带，他们的特殊关系，和共同的价值理念。

The Indian Finance Minister, Arun Jaitley, was already talking of co-operation and future partnerships when I interviewed him on Thursday.

印度财政部长，Arun Jaitley，在我星期三采访他时，已经谈到了两国的互相合作和未来的伙伴关系。

But do not be deceived by the diplomatic dance.

但是，千万不要被这些外交辞令欺骗了。

Diwali, the festival of lights - India's great seasonal celebration of optimism and hope - has just finished.

排灯节，灯光的节日 -- 印度最重要的象征乐观和希望的季节性节日 -- 刚刚结束。

It is a time of extraordinary generosity. People throw lavish parties with delicious food, plenty of drink and raucous rounds of Teen Patti - India's answer to poker.

这是一段无比慷慨的时光。人们大量地举办聚会，慷慨地提供美味的食物，丰富的饮品，和一轮轮热闹的Teen Patti游戏 -- 一种印度的扑克牌。



India's Finance Minister Arun Jaitley presides over a booming economy.

印度财政部长Arun Jaitley掌管着迅速发展的印度经济。

I attended a string of these in New Delhi's gracious diplomatic district. Each brought more evidence that India's Diwali generosity does not extend to trade deals with the UK or anyone else.

我这段时间参加了一系列在新德里使馆区举办的华美的排灯节活动，每一场都给人一种迹象，那就是印度排灯节的慷慨，不会延伸到与英国或其它国家的贸易协议中去。

There was the top Indian diplomat who dismissed Mrs May's visit as "an afterthought".

有很多高层的印度外交官不太重视这次特蕾莎•梅首相的访问，并称这次访问为“马后炮”。

He had arrived in a sleek, black BMW. The white Hindustan Ambassadors that used to be the badge of status in India's rigid governmental hierarchy are not so prized any more.

财政部长Arun Jaitley是坐着闪闪发光的黑色宝马抵达的。而那个曾经是印度严格政府等级制度中地位的象征的白色Hindustan Ambassadors汽车，如今已经不再有人以此为豪了。

（译注：Hindustan Ambassadors汽车，是由印度斯坦汽车公司(Hindustan Motors)生产的大使牌(Ambassador)轿车，大使牌轿车的原型来自上世纪50年代初英国设计的Morris Oxford轿车，该车一度是印度政界人物和政府官员的专用轿车，已于2014年停产。）

The British asked for Mrs May's visit to be brought forward from December and he told me: "This is about politics in the UK, not about what we want."

英国方面请求将原计划在12月进行的特蕾莎•梅的访问提前，他告诉我：“这是与英国的国内政治有关，并不是我们要求的。”

Informal trade talks have already started, again at Britain's behest.

非正式的贸易会谈已经开始了，同样也是应英国方面的请求。

Under EU rules,the UK cannot do any actual deals until it leaves Europe, but with a "hard Brexit" - where it leaves the single market - looking a real possibility, it wants to get the ball rolling as soon as possible.

根据欧盟的规则，英国不可以签订任何实质性的协议直到它正式离开欧盟，但是由于“艰难的脱欧谈判”  -- 让英国将变成一个单一市场 -- 英国正在寻求一种现实可能性，让英国尽快完成脱欧进程。

"Good luck with that," laughed the ambassador of a major economic power as he sipped from a flute of champagne at another Diwali do. "We've been trying to get a deal for years now, but there's not much in it for India."

“祝英国这次访问好运，”另一个主要经济体的驻印度大使在一场排灯节的活动上，抿了一口香槟笑着说道，“我们多年以来一直想尝试着和印度签订贸易协议，但是印度对此不是很关注。”

India was a closed economy until the early 1990s, he explained and still has comparatively high barriers to foreign imports. Meanwhile most of the developed world has been cutting back restrictions on trade.

那个大使解释说，印度在1990年以前一直是一个封闭的经济， 如今也还一直对从国外进口设置相当高的贸易壁垒。与此同时，大部分发达国家一直在放宽贸易限制。

"What's more," continued my new friend, "it's doing well behind those barriers. It means they want really big concessions before they'll sign up to anything."

“此外，” 我的朋友继续说，“印度这些年来在这些贸易壁垒保护之下一直发展得很好。这意味着，印度在得到相当大的让步之前，他们是不会与任何国家签订任何贸易协议的。”



India has been celebrating Diwali - the festival of lights.

印度在庆祝排灯节 – 灯光的节日

The European Union had the same problem.

欧盟同样面临着这个问题。

Peter Mandelson began free trade talks between the EU and India when he was European trade commissioner back in 2007. There have been 16 separate formal rounds of negotiations in the nine years since then, but very little progress.

Peter Mandelson早在2007年就得到欧盟授权开始开展与印度的自由贸易谈判。从那之后长达9年的时间里，已经举行了16轮正式谈判，但是鲜有进展。

You only need to look at the sticking points to see why the UK is unlikely to fare any better, says Sir Thomas Harris, a former ambassador to Korea who ran the UK India Business Council for many years.

你只要看到这个症结就知道为什么英国也不可能比欧盟取得更多的收获，前英国驻韩国大使Thomas Harris爵士说道， 他曾经负责印度 - 英国商会多年。

India consistently refused to lift restrictions on professional services including accounting, insurance, banking and legal services, he points out. These are some of Britain's strongest sectors and exactly the kind of businesses to which Britain wants India to open up.

他指出，印度一直拒绝取消在包括会计行业，保险业，银行业和法律顾问等专业性服务行业上的限制，而这些恰好都是英国实力最强的行业，也是英国一直想要印度对其开放的行业类型。

"For the life of me, I cannot see why the Indians would be prepared to offer concessions on services in bilateral talks with the UK which they were not prepared to offer in return for access to the EU as a whole," he says.

“我估计在我的有生之年，也不会看到，印度会准备在和英国的双边会谈中，对这些行业上给出，那些英国和欧盟作为一个整体的时候，印度都不曾给出的让步。”

And then there is the even more vexed question of immigration.

而且，这儿还有一个更加棘手的移民问题。

During the trade talks, Europe refused India's requests for more temporary visas for professional workers.

在那次贸易会谈期间，欧盟拒绝了印度提出的关于增加专业技术人员去欧盟的临时签证的要求。

On the face of it, Mrs May's government is unlikely to be any more forthcoming. Its policy is that the number of immigrants needs to be cut dramatically.

从目前看来，特蕾莎•梅的政府不可能比欧盟还前进一步。因为根据目前特蕾莎•梅的政府的移民政策，移民的数目需要大幅削减。

At the Conservative Party conference last month, the Home Secretary, Amber Rudd, talked about the possibility of new curbs on foreign workers and students.

在上个月举行的保守党会议中，内政大臣Amber Rudd还在讨论关于控制外国工人和留学生的新一轮政策的可能性。


 
Immigration is a bone of contention between the British and Indian governmnets.

移民问题是英国和印度政府争论的一个焦点

The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Philip Hammond, has since hinted he is minded to be a little more flexible on professional workers. But it is hard to overstate how badly the government's rhetoric on immigration goes down in India.

财政大臣Philip Hammond，已经暗示他打算在专业技术人员临时签证问题上处理得更灵活一些。但是很难期望到了印度，英国政府会在移民问题上做出大幅让步的承诺。

"The impression Britain is giving to countries such as India is 'we want your business but we don't want your people'," is how a former advisor to the Indian Prime Minister, Narendra Modi, put it in an Indian newspaper.

“英国给其他国家比如印度的印象就是 ‘我们想要你的商业利益，但是不想要你的人’ ”，印度总理莫迪的一位前政府顾问在印度的报纸上写道。

When I quoted that to a top British diplomat he squirmed in discomfort.

当我把这句话引用给一位英国高层的外交官时，他不安地扭动了一下身子。

"The government is going to have to find a way to articulate its policy more clearly," was his "diplomatic" suggestion.

“政府将不得不找到一个方法，更加清晰地阐明这方面的政策，” 这是他在 “外交上” 的建议。

Mrs May's visit to India is the first big test of whether it can do that.

特蕾莎•梅的此次印度访问就是关于这个方法是否可行第一次大的尝试。

If Britain is to prosper, Mrs May needs to be able to show that forging strong non-EU alliances can be reconciled with her hard-line stance on immigration.

如果英国想要继续繁荣，那特蕾莎•梅就必须展示出她能够调和好，关于塑造一个强大的欧盟之外的联盟，和关于她强硬的移民政策立场，这两者之间的关系。

She also needs to demonstrate that it is possible to do trade deals that deliver real benefits to Britain.

她还必须要证明签订贸易协议可以为英国带来现实的利益。

My Diwali party circuit suggests both ambitions are going to be hard to fulfil.

照我在排灯节宴会上的观察来看，这两个雄心都要得以实现将会很难。