摩苏尔大坝可能随时坍塌杀死150万人 [英国媒体]

An employee works on strengthening the Mosul Dam on the Tigris River, north of the Iraqi city of Mosul, on February 1, 2016 AFP/Getty Images

2016年2月1日，一位工人在伊拉克城市摩苏尔以北，底格里斯河上的摩苏尔大坝进行加固工作

Engineers and other experts have warned that the collapse of an eight mile (13 kilometre) long dam on the Tigris River in northern Iraq is just a “matter of time”, triggering an environmental disaster which could leave 1.5 million people dead and millions more as far away as Baghdad without food or electricity.

工程师和其他专家们已经对位于伊拉克北部底格里斯河上一座8英里长（13公里）的大坝可能坍塌发出了警告，称这只是“时间问题”。这可能引发一场环境灾难 ，导致150万人丧生并且使在巴格达的数百万人面临食物短缺和电力匮乏。

The Mosul Dam, 40 miles (60 kilometres) away from the Isis-controlled city of the same name, holds 11.1 billion cubic metres of water, and has been plagued by problems since its construction in the 1980s thanks to the fact it was built on soluble ground.

摩苏尔大坝和40英里（60公里）外伊斯兰国所控制的城市同名，存有110亿立方米的水，建立于20世纪80年代。由于建立于可溶性地面之上，建成以来一直被各种问题所困扰。

It has required constant maintenance to fill the cavities that form underneath the concrete to stop it collapsing ever since.

从那时到现在，这个大坝需要不断的进行灌浆填补以防止坍塌。

A 2006 US Army Corps engineering report found the “Mosul Dam is the most dangerous dam in the world” - but the situation has become more precarious since Isis took control of the area in 2014, including, briefly, the dam itself. Many of the 1,500 workers stationed there fled, and the extremists damaged much of their equipment. 

美国陆军工程兵团在一份2006年的报告里表示“摩苏尔大坝是世界上最危险的大坝”，但是在2014年伊斯兰国控制了包括大坝的这片区域以后，情况变得更加危险。配置在这里的1500名工人的大部分已经逃走，激进分子们破坏了大部分的设备。

“It is just a matter of time. It will be worse than throwing a nuclear bomb on Iraq,” Professor Nadhir al-Ansari of the Environmental Engineering Department at Lulea University in Sweden, who inspected the initial construction, told Al-Jazeera. 

监督过大坝最初建设的瑞典吕勒奥大学环境工程系教授Nadhir al-Ansari表示：“这只是时间问题，这比用原子弹轰炸伊拉克还糟糕。”

A 2015 study from the European Commission's Science Centre found that even a partial breach of 26 per cent would unleash a flood of catastrophic proportions. 

欧盟委员会下属的科学中心所发布的一份2015年的研究表明，即使只有26%左右的不分被破坏，这一样会引发一场大面积的洪灾。

A wave of water up to 100 feet (30 metres) high would engulf Mosul in two hours, taking with it people, unexploded bombs, buildings and cars, as well as toxic substances from oil refineries and human waste.

高达100英尺（30米）的巨浪将在两小时内吞没摩苏尔，带走那里的人们、还没爆炸的炸弹、建筑物和车辆，同时还有炼油厂的有毒物质和人类的排泄物。

The surrounding flood plains are already home to more than one million people living in tents after being displaced by fighting who would struggle to find protection from the water.

在经历了一番躲避水灾影响的争斗以后，上百万人被赶到了周围的洪泛区，他们居住在帐篷里并以此地为家。

Within four days, both the EU and US experts predict, a wave between six - 36 feet (two - eight metres) high would reach Baghdad, 250 miles (400 kilometres) away.

欧洲和美国的专家们预测，一波6-36英尺（2-8米）高的巨浪将在四日内抵达250英里（400公里）外的巴格达。

The UN predicted last year that in any flooding scenario, up to four million people will be left homeless, and aid will take up to two weeks to reach those in need if airports, electricity grids and roads are knocked out. Iraq’s oil refineries and up to two thirds of its wheat fields would also be affected. 

联合国去年预测，如果出现了洪灾的情况，多达400万人将无家可归，而在机场、电网和道路不能正常使用的情况下，援助将花费两周时间才能到达。伊拉克的炼油厂和2/3的麦田也将会受到影响。

New ￡234 million ($300 million) World Bank funded repairs are being carried out by an Italian engineering company, but the fragile security situation in the area is making completion of the work difficult.

一家意大利工程公司获得了一份由世界银行出资的的2.34亿英镑（3亿美元）的维修合同，但是该地区险恶的安全局势令这项工作开展起来非常困难。



Millions in need of aid as Iraqi forces advance on Mosul

数百万人需要援助，伊拉克军队向摩苏尔推进

Kurdish and Italian soldiers remain on constant guard for extremist attacks. In October, an Isis convoy armed with explosives tried to approach the dam but were killed by Kurdish missiles before they reached it.

库尔德和意大利士兵在此警戒以防备激进分子的攻击。在10月，一个伊斯兰国携带爆炸物的车队试图冲进大坝，但是在抵达目标前就被库尔德人的导弹所消灭。

A better and more permanent solution would be to build a second dam - but the political and military instability and lack of funds mean this option is highly unlikely.

一个更好的永久性解决方案是再修一个坝，但是政治层面和经济层面的不稳定，以及资金的匮乏意味着这基本不可能成行。

Iraqi officials have tried to downplay scientists’ and the international community's fears of an imminent disaster, but Professor Ansari remains sceptical the problem will be solved in time.

伊拉克官员试图将科学家以及国际社会对于这个即将到来的灾难的恐惧轻描淡写，但是Ansari教授仍然对问题将得到及时解决表示怀疑。

“I am convinced the dam could fail tomorrow,” he said.

他表示：“我相信这大坝明天就可能坍塌。”



negan
i seem to have been reading of this imminent collapse for at least 2 years.

我好像至少两年前就看到过这个大坝要坍塌的消息了。

I Love Brexit!
If Trump was in charge he'd build a f**ing brilliant damn. It would probably be made of gold and have a 5-star hotel and a bowling alley. 

要是特朗普是掌权的人，他就会造一个无比华丽的大坝。可能会是金子做的，而且上面有五星级酒店和保龄球馆。

scarbo
We have enough human stupidity to deal with in our own country without worrying about the idiocy of those thousands of miles away. 

我们国家有很多人为的蠢事需要处理，不要去管那些几千英里外的白痴事情。

Billythedog
Build an Ark?
and they went in two by two,
an Iraqi a Kurd and a wandering Jew.

造个诺亚方舟怎么样？
让他们一对对的登船，一个伊拉克人，一个库尔德人和一个流浪的犹太人。

Layla93
"Within four days, both the EU and US experts predict, a wave between six - 36 feet (two - eight metres) high would reach Baghdad, 250 miles (400 kilometres) away."
So lets presume it hits in 2 days. that's 48 hours.
250 miles divided by 48 hours = 5.21miles per hour average.
but surely the wave would be traveling very quickly when its 30M high, so when it reaches Bagdad 250 miles away and done an average of 5.21mph - the 6ft wave would be going alot slower than 5.21mph.... I don't get it... am I missing something?

“欧洲和美国的专家们预测，一波6-36英尺（2-8米）高的巨浪将在四日内抵达250英里（400公里）外的巴格达。”
我们假设两天内能到达，那就是48小时。
250英里除以48小时等于5.21英里每小时。
但是看看前面说的，30米高的洪水跑得飞快，2小时就能到达40英里外的摩苏尔；但是同时这个6英尺（2米）高的洪水，抵达巴格达的时速却只有5.21英里每小时。我不明白这是怎么回事，我漏了什么信息吗？

foolisholdman
I think you have to be right.  These figure do not make sense at all.  It is the usual problem with figures in the Big Media.

（回复上贴）我觉得你是对的。这些数据一点都不靠谱，大媒体的数据总是出这种问题。

trisul
I just don't think it works like that, the water level would rise and keep rising, but there is no real wave.

（回复上上贴）我觉得不是这样的，水位保持持续上涨，并不存在真正的一波。

heliphobe
I bet if the dam did fail, it will all be "ISIS" fault and not the fault of the Western governments that let ISIS rapid growth (or alleged backing) go unheeded

我打赌如果大坝真塌了，一定是伊斯兰国的责任，而不是让伊斯兰国不知不觉的快速壮大（或者宣布支持）的西方政府的责任。