咖啡vs气候变化：情况不妙 [英国媒体]

Coffee vs. climate change: The news is not good

咖啡vs气候变化：情况不妙



Warming will push coffee uphill and could limit pollinators.

气候变暖将使咖啡豆向山上迁移，并可能限制传粉者。

This is serious: climate change could put your caffeine supply at risk. Coffee is notorious for being picky about its climate conditions, with the most popular varieties only growing at specific altitudes in the tropics. That alone makes coffee susceptible to climate change, but the plants are also fussy about their pollinators, which will also be affected by the changing climate.

问题很严重：气候变化可能会使你的咖啡因来源处于危险之中。咖啡树对气候条件的挑剔臭名昭着，最受欢迎的品种只生长在热带地区特定海拔之上。单单这一点就令咖啡树对气候变化十分敏感，但这些植物对传粉者也很挑剔，而传粉者也会受到气候变化的影响。

A new analysis suggests that climate change on its own could cause coffee producing areas in the Americas to drop production by roughly 80 percent. But the remaining productivity might drop even further unless we ensure the crops have access to pollinators.

一项新的研究表明，气候变化可能导致美洲咖啡生产区域减产约80%。但除非我们确保农作物有传粉者可用，否则剩下的生产力也可能进一步下降。

Coffee and climate

咖啡和气候

Only two varieties of coffee are cultivated. One is called "robusta;" as its name implies, it's more tolerant of heat and holds up better to insect pests, so it can be grown across a lot of the tropics. Unfortunately, robusta is uniformly acknowledged to not taste that great. Complicating matters further, its caffeine content is high enough to set off heart palpitations at nearly double the levels found in the other major coffee variety.

现在种植的只有两种咖啡树。一个叫做“robusta”(强健的)，正如它的名字所暗示的那样，它更耐热、耐虫害，因此它可以生长在许多热带地区。不幸的是，robusta被公认口感不佳。更复杂的是，它的咖啡因含量高到足以引发心悸，几乎是另一个咖啡品种的两倍。

That variety is "arabica," which provides the rich, complicated flavor most of us associate with coffee. But arabica is extremely fussy about its conditions. At the equator, it only grows at altitudes above a kilometer, and it can tolerate a variety of rainfall patterns. Farther from the equator, it grows at altitudes between 500 meters and a kilometer, and it relies on specific rainfall patterns.

另一种就是“arabica”，它的口味儿更加丰富、复杂，是我们大部分人真正接触到的咖啡。但是arabica对生长环境极为挑剔。在赤道地区，它只生长在海拔一公里以上地区，可承受多种降雨模式。而在远离赤道的地方，它生长在海拔500米到1公里之间，而且依赖特定降雨模式。

A few robusta-arabica hybrid strains have been developed, but plants take roughly four years to start producing beans, so improving the crop through breeding is a long-term endeavor.

现在已经培育出了一些杂交品种，但是咖啡树从种植到结果要花将近4年时间，因此育种改良是一项长期努力。

Obviously, for a crop this sensitive to climate variations, climate change poses a challenge. In most of the existing growing regions, rising temperatures would push the crop uphill. Obviously, there's less land as you go up a mountain, so this means less land available for the crop. That problem would be partly offset by areas farther from the equator that warm up enough to allow the arabica to grow there. But, overall, global analyses have suggested the area where arabica could be cultivated would be cut in half by the middle of the century.

显然，气候变化给这种对气候高度敏感的作物带来了挑战。在大多数现有生长地区，气温升高会使作物向高海拔地区转移。很明显，越往山上土地就越少，这意味着可种植面积越少。但气温升高也会使得原本不适宜生长的非赤道地区变得适宜生长，这会抵消一部分负面影响。但总体而言，全球分析表明，到本世纪中叶，arabica的可种植面积将减少一半。

High resolution + bees

高分辨率+蜜蜂

The new analysis extends the earlier work by focusing on the Americas and massively increasing the resolution. The team used two different emissions scenarios (RCP 4.5 and 8.5 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change). The future climate, averaged between the years 2040 and 2060, was analyzed using a total of 36 different climate models. Nineteen different climate variables—things like temperature and precipitation—that influence coffee production were extracted from the models. And, critically, the analysis was performed at a very high spatial resolution, with the landscape broken up into squares one kilometer on a side.

新的分析拓展了早期研究，聚焦于美洲并大大提高了分辨率。研究小组使用了两种排放情景(RCP 4.5和8.5，RCP指代表浓度路径，RCP8.5指到2100年时，空气中的二氧化碳浓度要比工业革命前的浓度高3—4倍；RCP4.5指自2080年以后，人类的碳排放就降低，但依然超过允许数值)。并使用36种不同的气候模型分析2040年到2060年之间的平均气候情况。并从模型中提取出19种影响咖啡生产的环境因子——例如温度和降水。而且最关键的是，分析的空间分辨率相当高，地形被分成了1平方公里的小块儿。

This higher resolution makes a big difference. Rougher estimates suggested that the amount of coffee-producing land would drop by about 30 percent. But the new work suggests that the numbers are much higher, with suitable land going down by more than 70 percent and perhaps as much as 88 percent at higher levels of warming.

更高的分辨率意义重大。之前低分辨率情况下的估计认为咖啡生产地面积将减少30%左右。但新研究表明这一数字要高得多，宜耕土地将减少70%以上，如果变暖程度更高，这一数字可能高达88%。

Coffee is also dependent upon pollinators. While domesticated bees are important contributors to coffee pollination, past studies have shown that having access to more pollinator species increases the yield. Many of the local bee species are sensitive to climate change, so the researchers included them in the analysis.

咖啡同时还依赖于传粉者。虽然家养蜜蜂是咖啡重要的传粉者，但有研究显示，更多种类的传粉者将带来更高产量。许多当地蜂种对气候变化很敏感，因此研究还包括了蜜蜂。

Here, the news was a bit better. Across South America, the species diversity of bees goes down considerably due to the changing climate. Only about five percent of the continent sees an increase in species diversity; it drops in 65 percent of the terrain. But coffee-growing regions happen to start with very high diversity, with an average of 13 different species. While climate change causes that number to drop slightly, crops will still have plenty of pollination options; even the worst-hit regions will still have at least five bee species that like the climate.

传粉者的情况稍微乐观一些。在南美洲，只有约5%的地区物种多样性增加了，而65%的地形下降。但是，咖啡生长地区多样性基础很高——平均有13种。因此即便气候变化导致这一数字下降，依然有不少传粉者可供作物利用。即使是情况最严重的地区，也至少会有5个适应气候的蜂种

What the authors suggest is that pollinators could become critical in areas that haven't previously supported coffee production. As farmers expand into these areas, they could engage in practices that create good habitats for wild bees.

研究者想指出的是，对于温度升高带来的新生产地区来说，传粉者可能至关重要的，因为即便温度适宜也需要传粉者。农民在开发这些地区的同时，可以尝试为野蜂创造良好的栖息地。

Aside from the obvious worries about the global coffee supply, the analysis indicates that there may be some specific national issues. Countries like Honduras and Nicaragua, for example, already grow coffee on the highest parts of their terrain. As the planet warms and optimal growing areas move uphill, there will be almost no place for them to go here. And as coffee is a major source of income for small farmers in these countries, it'll be important to adjust policy well in advance of crop failures.

除了对全球咖啡供应忧心忡忡，分析还指出了可能出现的一些具体的国家性问题。例如，像洪都拉斯和尼加拉瓜这样的国家已经在其最高地形区域种植咖啡了。随着全球变暖，最适宜的生长区域将继续向高海拔移动，这样他们就无处可种了。由于咖啡是这些国家小农户的主要收入来源，因此在作物歉收前调整政策是非常有必要的。


LaeMing Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
And suddenly the world takes climate change seriously :-/

一讲到咖啡，大家突然开始严肃对待气候变化了。

solomonrex Ars Tribunus Angusticlavius et Subscriptor
That's right! No more Mr Nice USA! It's a War On Climate Change! We're going to bomb the shit out of those hurricanes!

你说得对，不要再当“好好先生”了，我们要对气候变化宣战！我们要把这些飓风炸得稀巴烂！

ubercurmudgeon Ars Scholae Palatinae
"It's not happening."
...ten years later...
"It might be happening, but not because of us."
...another ten years...
"It is happening, but won't affect us much."
...five years further on...
"We can mitigate against it."
...one month later...
"No coffee? This outrageous, why didn't anyone warn us?"
...the following morning...
"Who can we bomb?"

“这不会发生的。”
……十年后……
“这有可能发生，但不是我们引起的。”
……又十年后……
“好吧，它正在发生，但对我们影响不大。”
……又五年过去了……
“我们可以缓解它。”
……一个月后……
“什么？没咖啡喝了？搞什么啊？为什么没人警告我们？”
……第二天早上……
“今天我们要轰炸谁？”

foulmudmamas Smack-Fu Master, in training
This is happening with chocolate now as well.

巧克力也面临着同样危机。

postadelmaga
We finally have chance !!!
Don't touch coffee or the second amendment to USA folks or thing get serious.

我们终于等到机会了！
咖啡和第二修正案(持枪法案)是美国乡民不可触犯的神圣权力。
要是没咖啡喝，那问题会严重的。

Acin
Dunno. I know you're probably joking, but people already negating the evidence of climate change will not probably change their mind because of a study predicting less coffee production that is substantiated in those climate change predictions they already deny.

老兄，我知道你可能是在开玩笑，但是那些否定气候变化证据的人，可不会因为一份预测咖啡产量减少的研究就改变他们的态度。

deus01
Wouldn't the changing climate allow coffee to grow in new areas? It doesn't seem clear from the article if it's just existing coffee growing regions that will have issues or if there is something preventing coffee from growing in new areas as climate changes.

Of course it's early and I haven't had coffee yet so maybe I'm just not reading properly.

不过气候变化不是会带来新的宜耕区吗？文章好像没说清楚，是现有种植区会出问题，还是气候变化会阻止新种植区出现。
当然了，大早上迷迷糊糊的，我还没喝咖啡，可能没看清楚文章。

BwanaYesu Smack-Fu Master, in training
I assume there will be some new areas suitable for coffee, but it's not as simple as just planting new areas.
For one thing, seed in the ground to partial production is at least 5 years, and full production is around 10 years, so establishing new regions isn't quick.
Then you have to consider that it isn't only temperature that's going to be a factor. Coffee isn't super sensitive to day length, but it is affected somewhat, so latitude changes can be problematic. Total rainfall is important for growth of the tree, but rainfall pattern is much more important for fruit production--if I remember correctly several months of no rain followed by a wet season is needed for good flowering. Coffee is also very sensitive to day-night temperature changes--too much diurnal variation, and you can get significant dieback. And as the article says, there's the question of pollinators--if the new areas suitable for coffee growth aren't good for coffee pollinators, you've just got a bunch of short trees with nice-smelling flowers.

我认为会有一些新的适合咖啡种植的地方的，但问题不是你种些咖啡树就行了。
一方面，从播种到开始产出咖啡豆，至少要5年时间，而达到产量顶峰差不多要10年，所以建立新种植区不是一朝一夕的事儿。
然后你必须考虑影响因素不仅仅是温度，咖啡树对日照时间不算特别敏感，但还是会有影响，所以改变海拔会带来一些问题。总降水量对咖啡树生长很重要，但对于结果实来说，降水模式更加重要——如果我没记错的话，在雨季之后，必须要有几个月的无雨期，才能保证正常开花。咖啡树还对昼夜温差十分敏感——如果温差太大，就会大量顶梢枯死。另外，正如文章所说的，还要面对传粉者问题——假如新种植区只适合咖啡树生长，却不适合传粉者生活，那么你得到的将只是一丛丛花香迷人的灌木。

Frosty Grin wrote:
If it's mostly about the "wake-up juice" aspect, we can start injecting synthetic caffeine. Or formulate a coffee-like drink with caffeine.

这只不过是和“醒神饮料”有关，我们可以不喝咖啡，改成注射人工咖啡因，或者准备一种含咖啡因的类咖啡饮料。

slymenstra hymen Ars Tribunus Militum
What, like tea? I think even suggesting that is treasons in the US

什么类咖啡饮料？你是说茶吗？在美国，光提出这个建议就够判你叛国罪了。

TheNinja Wise, Aged Ars Veteran
As someone who loves coffee (and other stuff that are already being affected by climate change and bad agricultural practices) I'm sad to read that. It's a shame that those who are in power and are denying science won't be alive to endure the rotten gift they are leaving to future generations.

作为一个咖啡爱好者，读到这篇文章我很伤心，那些无耻的掌权者、反科学者根本不为后代考虑。

Katana314 Ars Scholae Palatinae
As a reminder...the most recent excuse from deniers is "The Earth goes through normal warming cycles", NOT "The earth is not warming".
So, if you're a denialist, feel free to lament that coffee is not going to be present anymore and there's nothing you can do about it - OR question whether fighting pollution could prevent this. But don't claim that none of it is going to happen. Even the most insane politicians you support don't actually believe that.

允许我提醒一下，最近那些否定者换说法了，他们不再说“地球没有在变暖”，而是说“地球正经历正常的温暖时期”。
所以，如果你是个否定论者，那就尽情哀悼咖啡即将消失、我们无能为力吧——要么就想想如何对抗污染和全球变暖。但是千万别骗自己这些不会发生，即便是你支持的最疯狂的政客也没法否认。

justin150 Ars Centurion
Most of the US drinks Starbucks coffee, so they will barely notice. Under new EU legislation (inspired by Italians) Starbucks coffee in EU will be renamed "brown sludge" - which it is.
On a more serious note, I am sure I read a while back that they were wild varieties of coffee in the Ethiopian highlands which had never been cultivated which might be an alternative to the 2 varieties cultivated currently.

绝大多数美国人都喝星巴克，所以对他们没啥影响。而在新的欧盟法律下，欧洲的星巴克将被改名为“棕色烂泥”——恰如其名。(欧洲人嘲讽美国人没品味)
不开玩笑了，我肯定我曾读到过，在埃塞俄比亚高原，有一种野生咖啡，从未被培育成作物，它也许能成为现有两种咖啡树的替代品。