【外交家】中国是时候起来面对朝鲜危机了 [英国媒体]

By Kerry Brown （作者） 原文发表于《外交家》，同发英国智库chathamhouse。



With the series of events over the last three weeks in North Korea, from firing of ballistic missiles over Japan to the testing of what looked to be a hydrogen bomb on 3 September, Pyongyang’s direction seems clear enough. Despite immense effort over two decades, from sanctions to increasing isolation and international , the impoverished country with a population of just 23 million and one of the lowest per capita GDPs in the world has, far more effectively and quickly than anyone had predicted, created something close to a viable, projectible, nuclear weapon capability.

过去三周在朝鲜出演的一出出大戏来看-发射从日本头上飞过的弹道导弹、9月3日疑似的氢弹测试，平壤的前进方向似乎已经明朗。尽管二十年间的巨大努力-包括国际孤立制裁一系列手段在内，这个赤贫的仅有2300万人口、拥有全世界几乎最低人均GDP的国家，比所有人预测的更加效率和快速的有了接近拥有可行的、可部署能力的核武装置。

This was not the way things were meant to be. A large part of the blame needs to be placed on the leaderships in power in China over this era. Despite having immense leverage over its neighbour, through trade, aid and energy, every time Beijing’s leaders were offered a moment to decisively deal with their truculent, troublesome neighbour, they backed down. China is faced today with the final consequences of this passivity. To the Indians, Russians and Pakistanis, can now be added the North Koreans as nuclear powers bordering China. There cannot be a more unhappy geography for a country to occupy than this.

事情本不该是这样子。很大一部分责任要归咎于于这个时期的中国领导阶层。尽管通过对朝援助、贸易和能源援助使得中国对朝拥有巨大影响力，但中国提出的关键性应对方案毫无例外的被她好斗、讨厌的邻居打了脸。中国今天正为过去的不作为付出代价。有印度、俄罗斯、巴基斯坦，现在又加上朝鲜作为有核邻国，你想不到到比这更恶劣的地缘环境了。

Despite the complexities of the current situation, we need to be clear about one thing: nothing about a North Korea with a ballistic nuclear weapon capability is good for China. It creates significantly more potential for instability in the region. It impacts dramatically on China’s grand plans to be a dominant regional and global player. It directly poses risks to its relations with neighbouring countries at a time when the People’s Republic has the fulfilment of its great dream of modernity within reach — restoration of its status as a major international power.

不谈当下情况的复杂性，我们需要明确一个问题。北朝鲜拥有核弹投送能力对中国而言没有任何好处。这只加剧了地区形势的动荡。这戏剧性的影响了中国成为地区统治力量和全球性大国的宏伟计划。这也直接让中国和邻国关系处于风雨飘摇之中，恰当中国重新崛起为世界主要力量的现代梦想正触手可及之时。

North Korea has played brinkmanship, moral blackmail and the most ruthless zero-sum Machiavellian politics with China as much as with any other country. It is a diplomacy utterly without principle, based on having no alternative for the Kim regime than to cling to power no matter what. In their minds, nuclear capacity is the final guarantee that they cannot be touched. This plan has worked out well for them.

朝鲜正和中国玩着自我孤立、勒索和最为冷酷的马基雅维利式（不择手段）零和游戏，就像对其他任何国家一样。它的外交政策毫无原则可言，充斥着金氏统治高于一切的实质。在他们的想法里，核能力是保证他们可以免受惩戒的最后保证，这个算盘对他们而言确实打的不错。

The Kims have been ably assisted by a paternalistic mindset in China where elite leaders throughout the last two decades have regarded them as 'little brothers'; united by a common political system, but too poor, ignorant and isolated to ever cause Beijing problems. Even in the recent past, the Chinese patiently batted away any attempts to influence them to place pressure on their neighbour by stating that North Koreans were stubborn, that pushing them into a corner would be counterproductive, and that more even-tempered methods needed to be used. The outcomes of this are now clear.

金家在过去的二十年得益于中国家长式的把朝鲜当成小兄弟的思维定式，团结在相同政治体系下，但过去贫穷、无知和孤立的朝鲜没能给北京添上什么麻烦，就算是在最近，北京也拒绝了（国际社会）要求对朝施压的尝试，辩解称朝鲜本质顽固，任何将他逼进墙角的做法会适得其反，应该采取更加稳重的方法。现在结果显而易见。

Chinese leaders will be too proud to acknowledge they have been gamed in this endless series of provocations and brinkmanship. But they are among the closest to the problem. If, and when, things get out of hand, the Chinese will be among the ones who will suffer the greatest consequences. They also know that they are faced by a wholly unscrupulous neighbour who has a mindset of being a perpetual victim, and who feels that they are owed everything by China and therefore can get away with whatever they want. North Koreans have been a thorn in China’s side for decades. They have now managed to become something akin to an open wound. It is hard to see how this can be easily healed.
China has to now engage with a kind of diplomacy and intervention and in a manner which it has never been happy with before. It is hard to see how its highly conservative current leadership will be able to manage this shift. Figures in the current Politburo like Zhang Dejiang actually studied in Pyongyang in the late 1970s. But they have been consistent in taking a soft stance, and telling everyone to back off and not push the North Koreans. Now they need to be much more defensive and think of their own interests before those of their neighbour.

中国的领导人恐怕羞于承认自己已经被玩死在朝鲜无尽的“挑衅-我是受害者”的游戏中。但他们距离问题最近。如果，有一天，事情玩大了，中国人也是承受痛中之痛的那个。他们也知道自己毫无底线的、拥有永恒的受害者脑回路的邻居认为中国所做的任何事情都是祖上十八辈欠的，所以朝鲜想干嘛干嘛。北朝鲜人作为中国身边“那根刺”已经存在了几十年了。现在他们正试图成为一个流血的伤口，这如何被治愈可不是轻而易举的事情。中国的外交和对外调解现在处于一个从来都没这么糟心的境地。也很难看出目前中国极度保守的领导风格如何进行调整。如张DJ这样的常委在70年代也曾在朝鲜学习.他们所做的就是让所有人往后退，别逼朝鲜。现在他们需要好好想想把他们自身的利益放在邻居前面了。

China still has the leverage to deal with North Korea decisively. The road to Pyongyang, as everyone knows, always ran through Beijing. That hasn’t changed. Never before has China had a more important role to play on such a decisive, urgent, international issue. It has everything to gain from reining its immoral, ungrateful and unsustainable neighbour in, once and for all, and nothing to gain from seeing North Korea march towards even greater truculence and bellicosity. Nor does Beijing have the luxury of a predictable, remote United States this time. Donald Trump is perfectly capable of petulant, disproportionate responses.

中国仍对朝鲜有决定性影响。通向平壤的路经过北京，这没有变。中国在国际事务中从来没有担当过如此重要、紧急、决定性的角色，中国会获益于勒紧他不道德、忘恩负义、精神断片的邻居的缰绳，给事情画上句号，中国将失去一切如果他看着朝鲜在野蛮、好斗的路上一路狂奔。这回即使是北京也没有预测美国应对形势的奢侈了，唐纳德 特朗普的个性的暴躁、不走寻常路的做法绝对会完美回应（朝鲜）。

China has been fond of talking about win-win outcomes over the last few years. In this case, it has never been clearer. A strong response by China to North Korea now means China wins, and so does the rest of the world. It needs to do this to show it is truly a major power, and not simply one capable of talking big about issues that don’t matter to it, and being silent on something so fundamental to its own destiny and future prosperity.

近些年，中国最喜欢谈论双赢结局。在这事情上，却总是含糊不清。一个对朝强硬的中国意味着中国赢，也是世界赢。中国需要以此证明自己的世界强权，而不是嘴炮强国，不会在关乎自身命运和繁荣昌盛的原则性的问题上装聋作哑。