中国对津巴布韦的影响有多大？ [英国媒体]

What is the extent of China's influence in Zimbabwe?

中国对津巴布韦的影响有多大？



A trip to Beijing by Zimbabwe's military chief was a "normal military exchange", China's foreign ministry said after the army seized power in Harare. How deep are relations between China and Zimbabwe really?

中国外交部在哈拉雷夺取政权后表示，津巴布韦军事领导人访问北京是“正常的军事交流”。中国与津巴布韦的关系到底有多深?

The news that General Constantino Chiwenga had visited China only a few days before the military takeover in Zimbabwe was a coincidence that did not go unnoticed.

在津巴布韦军方接管津巴布韦之前的几天，康斯坦蒂诺•奇温加将军访问了中国，这一消息纯属巧合，并没有引起人们的注意。

There was also speculation after China said it was closely watching developments, but stopped short of condemning President Mugabe's apparent removal from power.

中国表示正在密切关注事态的发展，但没有明显谴责穆加贝总统的下台。

China has investments worth many billions of pounds in Zimbabwe, in everything from agriculture to construction.

中国在津巴布韦有价值数十亿英镑的投资，从农业到建筑业无所不有。

But the reality is that it is Zimbabwe which is the dependent partner - with China providing the largest market for its exports and much needed support to its fragile economy.

但现实是，津巴布韦视中国为一个依赖的伙伴——中国为其出口提供了最大的市场，并为其脆弱的经济提供了急需的支持。

China's relations with Zimbabwe are deep, starting during the Rhodesian Bush War.

中国与津巴布韦的关系是很深的，从罗德西亚布什战争开始。

Robert Mugabe failed in 1979 to get Soviet backing, so turned to China, which provided his guerrilla fighters with weapons and training.

1979年，罗伯特•穆加贝(Robert Mugabe)未能获得苏联的支持，因此转向中国，后者为他的游击战士提供武器和训练。

Both countries formally established diplomatic relations at Zimbabwean independence in 1980 and Robert Mugabe visited Beijing as prime minister the following year.

两国于1980年正式建立外交关系，罗伯特•穆加贝于次年访问北京。

He has been a regular visitor since.

从那以后，他一直是常客。
  
For years, Zimbabwe's officials have tried to play off China against the West, advocating the country's "Look East" strategy, particularly following the introduction of EU sanctions in 2002.

多年来，津巴布韦官员一直在试图利用中国与西方国家的关系，鼓吹中国的“向东看”战略，特别是在2002年欧盟实施制裁之后。

Indeed, a decade ago, Mr Mugabe told a packed rally at the Chinese-built national sports stadium in Harare: 'We have turned east, where the sun rises, and given our back to the west, where the sun sets."

事实上，10年前，穆加贝在位于哈拉雷的中国建造的国家体育场举行的集会上说:“我们已经转向东方，那是太阳升起的地方，不再回到西方，那是太阳落下的地方。”

China's military engagement also deepened during Zimbabwe's "Look East" era.

在津巴布韦“向东看”的时代，中国的军事介入也加深了。

Significant purchases were made, including Hongdu JL-8 jet aircraft, JF-17 Thunder fighter aircraft, vehicles, radar and weapons.

大量采购，包括基教- 8喷气式飞机，jf - 17“雷电”战斗机（枭龙），车辆，雷达和武器。

However, following a controversy about a shipment of arms in 2008, Beijing decided to list Zimbabwe for "limited level" military trading.

然而，在2008年有关武器运输的争议之后，北京决定将津巴布韦列为“有限级别”的军事贸易。

Despite Zimbabwe's efforts, the "Look East" strategy did not bring the investment flood hoped for and a decade later, in August 2015, Mr Mugabe openly asked for Western re-engagement in his "state of the nation" address.

尽管在津巴布韦的努力下，“向东看”战略并没有带来希望中的投资大潮，十年之后，在2015年8月，穆加贝公开要求西方重新参与他的“国情”演说。

Now, the reality is that increasingly Chinese and Western interests - particularly those of the UK - have become aligned.

现在，现实情况是，越来越多的中西方国家(尤其是英国)的利益已经趋于一致。

Not far from each other in the outer suburbs of Harare, two of the biggest embassies in Zimbabwe are the British and the Chinese.

在哈拉雷的远郊，相距不远的地方，津巴布韦最大的两个大使馆是英国和中国的。

As other embassies scaled down or closed, Beijing's expanded.

当其他大使馆缩减或关闭时，北京的大使馆在扩张。

Whereas British diplomats were well connected with business, civil society and opposition figures, the Chinese invested in "technical support" of the party of government Zanu-PF, including state security and the presidency.

鉴于英国外交官与商界、民间社会和反对派人士关系密切，国投资了“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线党”(zanu - pf) “技术性的支持”，包括国家安全和总统。

When it came to Zanu-PF politics and factionalism, Chinese diplomats were well connected and insightful and, like their Western colleagues, concerned about stability, a better investment climate and adherence to the rule of law.

在“非洲民族联盟-爱国阵线”(zanu - pf)的政治和派系斗争中，中国外交官们的联系和洞察力都很好，就像他们的西方同事一样，关心稳定性、更好的投资环境并坚持法治。

President Xi Jinping visited Zimbabwe in 2015 and President Mugabe visited Beijing in January 2017.

2015年，中国主席访问津巴布韦，穆加贝总统于2017年1月访问北京。

In public, the Chinese leader said his country is willing to encourage capable companies to invest in Zimbabwe.

在公开场合，这位中国领导人说，他的国家愿意鼓励有能力的公司在津巴布韦投资。

But in private, the message was that there would be no more loans until Zimbabwe stabilised its economy.

但私下里，他们传达的信息是，在津巴布韦稳定经济之前，不会再有任何贷款。

Chinese diplomats and businesses are waiting for better days in Zimbabwe.

中国外交官和企业正在津巴布韦等待更好的一天。

China is the biggest buyer of Zimbabwean tobacco, but many other Chinese companies have found the investment climate challenging and have looked for alternative markets.

中国是津巴布韦烟草的最大买家，但许多其他中国公司已经认为投资环境具有挑战性，并寻找替代市场。

Some Chinese investors have been badly burned - on diamonds for example.

一些中国投资者已经严重受损，比如钻石的投资。

A couple of weeks ago I was in China, attending a meeting on China-Africa relations and Zimbabwe was not mentioned once.

几周前，我在中国参加了中非关系会议，没有提到津巴布韦。

Unlike Ethiopia, Sudan, or Angola that are strategic partners, or big markets like Nigeria, Kenya and South Africa, Zimbabwe is far from being Beijing's new priority.


不像埃塞俄比亚、苏丹或安哥拉是作为战略合作伙伴，或者像尼日利亚、肯尼亚和南非这样的大市场，津巴布韦远不是北京的新优先项。

So, Beijing's interest is in a better investment climate in Zimbabwe.
因此，北京的兴趣在于津巴布韦更好的投资环境。

A clear transitional arrangement resulting in elections for a legitimate government in Harare is as much in Beijing's interest as London's.

在哈拉雷举行的合法政府的选举中，一个明确的过渡政府与伦敦的利益一致，也符合北京的利益。

The "Look East" and the "Re-engagement with the West" strategies have not brought about the confidence and investment that Zimbabwe needs.

“向东看”和“重新接触西方”战略并没有给津巴布韦带来所需的信任和投资。

What Zimbabwe requires is stable and accountable government - then investors from Asia, America and Europe will seriously consider that Zimbabwe has an investment future.

津巴布韦需要的是稳定和负责任的政府，然后来自亚洲、美国和欧洲的投资者将认真考虑津巴布韦有一个投资的未来。

This was the message that Mr Mugabe received in Beijing in January.

这是穆加贝今年1月在北京得到的信息。

And the one which Zimbabwe's military chief also was given last week.

而津巴布韦的军事首领也在上周被告知。