大西洋月刊：西非一场危险的打击移民活动 [英国媒体]

A Dangerous Immigration Crackdown in West Africa

西非一场危险的打击移民活动



Europe wants to slow migration from Niger, but could wind up destabilizing an entire region in the process.

欧洲希望放缓来自尼日尔的移民，但可能会在这个过程中破坏整个地区的稳定局势。

AGADEZ, Niger—For centuries, the city of Agadez served as a gateway between sub-Saharan and North Africa. While the camel caravans have been replaced by trucks and Toyota 4x4s, the city’s local communities still rely on the transport of merchandise and contraband to get by. Agadez is also the largest city in Niger’s restive north, the birthplace of ethnic-Tuareg rebellions against the Nigerien state, and a place where jihadist gunmen use the lawless, open desert to move between hotspots in this part of Africa.

尼日尔，阿加德兹：几个世纪以来，阿加德兹城一直是连接撒哈拉以南非洲和北非地区的门户。虽然骆驼商队现在已经被卡车和丰田四驱车取代，但这座城市的本地社区仍然依靠货物运输和违禁品运输为生。阿加德兹也是尼日尔动荡的北部地区规模最大的城市，这里是当地的图阿雷格人反抗尼日尔政府的策源地，这里同时也是圣战武装分子使用作为法外之地的空旷沙漠在非洲这一部分的热点地区之间移动的场所。

Beginning in late 2013, thousands of people from throughout West Africa began arriving in Agadez every week, seeking an escape from poverty and a lack of opportunity back home. From there, it was onto Libya, where many hoped to find work or continue onward to Europe. At the height of the migrant-smuggling boom from 2014 to 2016, dozens of pick-up trucks, packed with anywhere from 22 to 30 people, would set off from the city into the desert every week. Nigerien authorities had little reason to intervene: Migrants headed out of Agadez paid an “exit tax” to government officials that went directly into the municipal treasury. (Many of the migrant convoys were even accompanied by a military escort.)

从2013年底开始，每周都有来自西非的成千上万的人抵达阿加德兹寻求摆脱贫困和故乡机会贫乏的状态。从那里出发，他们会继续前往利比亚，许多人希望在那里找到工作，或者继续前往欧洲。从2014年到2016年期间，在人口偷渡的高潮时期，每周都有数十辆满载着22至30人的皮卡从这座城市出发，进入沙漠地带。尼日尔当局几乎没有任何理由进行干预：从阿加德兹出发的移民要向政府官员支付“出口税”，这笔钱会直接进入市政财政收入当中。（许多移民车队甚至有军人陪同。）

What did all this add up to? In 2016, the United Nations Migration Agency detected over 333,000 migrants, including Nigeriens themselves, passing through northern Niger and onto Libya and Algeria. With each migrant paying smugglers between $100 and $500 and purchasing food and lodging on their journey through the Sahara, even the most conservative estimates suggested a smuggling economy in the tens of millions of dollars.

这一切叠加起来的后果是什么？2016年，联合国移民机构发现了33.3万的移民——其中包括了尼日尔人——穿过尼日尔北部地区，进入利比亚和阿尔及利亚。每个移民都要付给走私者100美元到500美元，并在穿越撒哈拉的旅途中购买食物和住宿，即使是最保守的估计也表明这一走私活动的经济规模达到了数千万美元。

All that started to change in August 2016, when Nigerien officials began implementing a controversial anti-smuggling law that effectively criminalized the transport of migrants. The law was passed in 2015, under heavy pressure from the European Union, which offered Niger aid and development assistance in exchange for more robust cooperation on immigration enforcement. In the ensuing crackdown, government officials told me they confiscated over 200 vehicles and detained dozens of drivers, guides, and so-called “ghetto owners,” or people who provided migrants with lodging.

这一切都在2016年8月发生了改变，当时尼日尔官员开始实施一项有争议的反走私法，有效地将移民输送活动定为非法。这项法律是于2015年在欧盟的巨大压力下获得通过的。欧盟向尼日尔提供了援助和发展援助，以换取它在移民执法方面更有力的合作。在随后的打击行动中，政府官员告诉我，他们没收了200多辆车，并拘留了数十名司机、导游和所谓的“贫民区所有者”——也就是那些为移民提供住宿的人。

By the end of 2017, the flow of detected migrants had fallen by 80 percent from the previous year. It was impossible to know exactly how many people were passing through: Most of the people-smuggling networks had moved underground. As a result, at least 6,000 people—smugglers, along with shop-owners, landlords, restaurateurs, vehicle repairman, and merchants who benefitted from the migrant economy—lost their livelihoods, local authorities in Agadez told me. The EU has pledged to help the newly unemployed find other types of work. So far, the support has yet to arrive.

到2017年底，被抓住的移民人数比前一年下降了80%。我们不可能确切地知道到底有多少人顺利通过：大多数人口偷渡网络已经转入地下。阿加德兹当地政府告诉我，这么做的结果是至少有6000名人口贩子以及店主、地主、餐馆老板、汽车修理工和从移民经济中受益的商人失去了他们的生计。欧盟已经承诺帮助新失业者找到其他类型的工作。到目前为止，这项支持还没有兑现。

Adou Ama, a slender, 40-year-old man in Agadez, once earned several thousand dollars a month arranging the transport of West African migrants from Agadez to Libya. Now he spends his days loitering under a hangar nestled within the mud-brick labyrinth of the city center, drinking tea and smoking cigarettes with a dozen other former smugglers. He and the other ex-smugglers said that the Nigerien government and its European patrons had failed to bring the jobs and economic development they’d promised. “Our families—what are they going to eat?” Ama asked.

Adou Ama是一个身体瘦弱的40岁男子，他曾凭借安排从阿加德到利比亚的西非移民的运输工作在一个月里挣到了几千美元。现在，他每天都在城市中心泥砖迷宫中的一个飞机库里游荡，和其他十几名前走私贩一起喝茶，抽烟。他和其他前走私者表示，尼日尔政府及其欧洲赞助人未能带来他们所承诺的工作和经济发展。Ama问道：“我们的家人——他们要吃什么？”

Northern Niger’s economic crisis could destabilize a region that has already suffered through two civil wars over the past 30 years. While the European Union promotes development aid and security assistance as a recipe for stability in Niger, and individual countries like France, Italy, and the United States do the same, locals here insist that EU efforts to curb migration, combined with an increased foreign military presence, threatens to break an already fragile state. “We don’t want a rebellion,” Ama said. “But suffering creates one.”

尼日尔北部的经济危机可能会使这个在过去30年里经历了两次内战的地区再度变得不稳定。尽管欧盟则将发展援助和安全援助视为尼日尔稳定的秘方，如法国、意大利和美国等国家都是这么做的，但是这里的当地居民坚持认为欧盟控制移民的努力，加上外国与日俱增的军事存在，都在威胁着本已脆弱的国家。“我们不想要一场叛乱，”Ama说道，“但苦难正在酝酿叛乱。”

Agadez emerged as the principal gateway for West African migrants and asylum-seekers bound for Europe after the fall of Muammar al-Qaddafi, the former ruler of Libya. Prior to his demise in 2011, Qaddafi blocked those trying to reach Europe, as part of a $5-billion aid package from Italy. Unable to find reliable partners among the competing armed factions in Libya after Qaddafi, Europe turned to Niger to control the movement of migrants, even those who didn’t necessarily want to go to Europe. Last year, the European Commission pledged to contribute 1 billion euros in development assistance to Niger by 2020.

在前利比亚统治者卡扎菲倒台之后，阿加德兹成为了西非移民和寻求庇护者前往欧洲的主要门户。2011年卡扎菲下台之前，他曾经阻挡住了那些试图前往欧洲的人，这是意大利50亿美元援助计划的一部分。在卡扎菲之后，由于无法在利比亚的武装派别中找到可靠的合作伙伴，欧洲转而求助于尼日尔来控制移民的流动，甚至是控制那些并不一定想去欧洲的人。去年，欧盟委员会承诺将在2020年之前为尼日尔提供10亿欧元的发展援助。

On the military front, France has several hundred troops in Niger, including special forces stationed at a revamped colonial fort in Madama, near the border with Libya. In December, Italy announced plans to send up to 470 troops to Madama in order to curb people-smuggling and fight jihadists. The exact amount of military spending by the EU and individual European nations in recent years is unclear, but is likely in the hundreds of millions of euros.

在军事方面，法国在尼日尔驻扎有几百名士兵，其中包括了一支驻扎在靠近利比亚边境的马达马的一个经过改造的殖民地要塞的特种部队。去年12月，意大利宣布了向马达马派遣多达470名士兵的计划，以遏制人口走私和打击圣战分子。欧盟和个别欧洲国家近年来在这一地区的军费开支尚不明确，但很可能高达数亿欧元。

Such a strong emphasis on security, however, seems to misdiagnose the problem. Development economists argue that rates of migration from poor countries increase as their economies grow, and only levels off once they reach a certain level of economic development. Heavy-handed measures, like those called for by Niger’s 2015 anti-smuggling law, can exact an economic cost, for both migrants and those who move them.

然而，对于安全的如此强调似乎只是错误地诊断了症结所在。发展经济学家认为，随着经济的增长，贫穷国家的移民率会所有上升，只有在达到一定程度的经济发展水平之后才会开始下降。像尼日尔2015年的反走私法所要求的那样，严厉的措施可以会给移民和移民服务者带来经济成本。

The 2015 law also crippled the economy of northern Niger at a time when jihadist groups were expanding their presence throughout the region. Fears of impending collapse prompted the EU to allocate 687,500 euros in June 2017 for a program to help smugglers find new employment. A spokesperson for the EU delegation in Niger, reached by email, referred to the project as a “reconversion plan” for “former recognized smugglers and other actors of migration,” including drivers, recruiters, guides, and local merchants.

2015年的法律还削弱了尼日尔北部的经济，而当时圣战组织正在该地区扩大其势力范围。对于即将发生的局势崩溃的担忧促使欧盟在2017年6月拨出68.75万欧元用于帮助走私者找到新的工作。通过电子邮件联系到的驻尼日尔的欧盟代表团的一名发言人将该项目称为“重新改造计划”，其对象是“之前的走私者和其他移民服务者”，包括司机、招募人员、导游和当地商人。

As part of the program, former smugglers are required to register with the Nigerien government, and prepare a dossier outlining new business proposals and start-up costs. But smugglers in Agadez who have sent in their plans, including those who said their dossiers have been approved, told me that they have yet to receive any assistance. According to government officials and the EU delegation in Niger, of the 6,500 people that have registered as part of the program, around 287 have been approved to receive any assistance.

作为该计划的一部分，此前的走私者必须向尼日尔政府登记，并准备一份档案，阐述其新的商业提议和启动成本。但是，在阿加德兹的走私者——包括那些声称他们的档案已经被批准的人——告诉我他们还没有得到任何帮助。根据政府官员和驻尼日尔的欧盟代表团的说法，在这个项目中进行登记的6500人中大约有287人获得了援助。

Over time, complaints of bureaucratic red tape and accusations that funds have been misappropriated by local authorities have piled up. Government officials are urging patience. “The program was launched with EU funds and we have to follow the EU process. We cannot just dispense funds,” Sadou Soloké, the governor of Agadez region, told me. According to Soloké, part of the frustration stemmed from a misunderstanding: Those who registered expected to receive monetary compensation; instead, he said, the program was only ever intended to furnish them with material and supplies purchased and procured by the EU in partnership with the Nigerien government. “We never said we would give them money. They have to start a legal activity and we will provide support. We will deliver what they need.”

随着时间的推移，官僚主义的繁文缛节和对地方政府挪用资金的指责已经堆积如山。政府官员正在敦促人们保持耐心。“这个项目是由欧盟基金启动的，我们必须遵循欧盟的流程。我们不能只分配资金，”阿加德兹地区的州长Sadou Soloké告诉我。根据Soloké的说法，部分原因是存在着误解：登记注册的人原本想着会获得货币补偿；但是与此相反，他说，该计划只是打算向他们提供欧盟在尼日尔政府协助下采购和获得的物料。“我们从来没有说过我们会给他们钱。他们必须开始合法的营生，我们会提供支持。我们将提供他们需要的东西。”

A spokesperson for the EU delegation to Niger confirmed that assistance to former smugglers has not yet started, in part because of the EU’s stringent procurement and compliance procedures. “We might be able to provide the first beneficiaries in one and a half to two months,” the spokesperson wrote in an email.

欧盟代表团的一名发言人证实，对此前的走私犯的援助还没有开始，部分原因是欧盟严格的采购和合规程序。该发言人在一封电子邮件中写道：“我们可能会在一个半月至两个月内为第一批受益人提供援助”。

The longer the EU takes, the greater the likelihood that the simmering frustration will boil over. In Mali, Libya, and Nigeria, which share long, porous borders with Niger, jihadist groups, some with ties to al-Qaeda and the Islamic State, have translated abundant disillusionment with ineffectual governments into varying levels of local support.

欧盟行动的时间越长，酝酿中的挫败感就越有可能爆发。在马里、利比亚和尼日利亚——这些地区与尼日尔有着漫长的边境线，圣战组织——其中一些与基地组织以及伊斯兰国保持着联系——正在煽动对无效率的政府的幻灭情绪，将它转化成为当地不同层级对该组织的支持。

Until recently, Niger had largely been spared from Islamist violence. This changed in 2013, when Saharan jihadist Mokhtar Belmokhtar rocked Agadez and Arlit, another city in northern Niger, with a pair of coordinated suicide attacks. Since then, militants in both Niger and Mali have launched multiple attacks against Nigerien security forces.

直到最近，尼日尔在很大程度上还未曾受到伊斯兰暴力的侵害。但是到了2013年，这一情况发生了变化，当时撒哈拉沙漠圣战组织Mokhtar Belmokhtar袭击了阿加德兹和尼日尔北部的另一个城市阿尔利特，在当地发动了两起协同自杀式袭击事件。从那以后，尼日尔和马里的武装分子对尼日尔的安全部队发动了多次袭击。

As jihadist groups make inroads with economically disenfranchised communities south of Agadez, local leaders warn that young people will prove susceptible to jihadist recruitment. “The migrant-smuggling, at least, allowed people to make money. At a minimum it kept people occupied,” Issouf Ag Maha, a former rebel who is now mayor of Tchirozerine, a town just north of Agadez, told me. “If there isn’t an alternative, people aren’t just going to cross their arms,” he said. “The jihadists are smart, and they will insert themselves into this situation.”

随着圣战组织在阿加德兹南部地区被剥夺经济权利的社区中取得取得发展，当地政府领导人警告说，年轻人将更容易被圣战分子所招募。“移民走私至少是允许人们赚钱的。至少它让人们有活可干，”一位现在是位于阿加德兹以北的小镇Tchirozerine的镇长的前反政府武装分子Issouf Ag Maha这么告诉我。他说：“如果没有其他选择，人们就不想只是袖手旁观。圣战分子很聪明，他们会主动加入到这种局势当中”。

Traditionally, jihadists rally local support by exploiting the presence of foreign military forces, and capitalizing when an operation goes awry. With the expanding U.S. military presence in the region, the odds of such a thing occurring may be rising. Since the early 2000s, the United States has stationed special-forces operatives in Niger, and began flying drones out of the capital city of Niamey in 2013, long before Islamist gunmen killed four American Special Forces servicemen in an ambush in October 2017. The United States is also currently building a new drone base in Agadez. In addition, Washington recently received approval from Nigerien officials to begin flying armed drones to strike jihadist groups in the region—a decision that did not involve Niger’s legislature or public debate.

根据传统，圣战分子通过利用外国军事力量来获得当地的支持，并在行动出现问题时进行资本化。随着美国在该地区军事存在的日益扩大，这种事情发生的几率可能正在上升。自本世纪初以来，美国一直在尼日尔部署特种部队，并在2013年从首都尼亚美开始进行无人机飞行。早在伊斯兰武装分子在2017年10月的一次伏击中杀死4名美国特种部队士兵之前，美国就已经开始使用无人机了。美国目前还在阿加德兹建立一个新的无人机基地。此外，华盛顿最近还得到了尼日尔官员的批准，开始在该地区使用武装无人机打击圣战组织——这一决定既没有在尼日尔的立法机构进行讨论，也未经过公众辩论。

Retired U.S. Air Force Lieutenant Colonel Rudy Atallah, who served as the Africa counterterrorism director for the secretary of defense from 2003 to 2009, told me that part of the challenge for U.S. special forces in the region is that they are limited to working directly with their Nigerien counterparts. The Nigerien military is “not seen favorably in many pockets of the country, and so it taints our guys,” Atallah told me. As a result, “our human intelligence is very, very weak in that area,” he said, posing a major challenge to executing drone strikes accurately.

退役的美国空军中校鲁迪·阿塔拉曾在2003年至2009年担任美国国防部长的非洲反恐主管。他告诉我，美国特种部队在该地区面临的挑战之一是，他们只能与尼日尔的同行直接合作。阿塔拉对我说，尼日尔军队“在这个国家的许多地方都不受欢迎，所以这也波及到了我们的人。”结果是，“我们在这一地区的情报收集非常非常薄弱，”他指出，这对无人机空袭行动的执行提出了一个重大挑战。

Calls for more robust intelligence gathering by U.S. troops on the ground, however, may soon meet resistance in Washington. The New York Times recently reported that a draft military investigation into the ambush in October calls for the Pentagon to scale back its ground operations in the region, rather than expand them.

然而，要求美军在地面上加强情报收集工作的呼声可能很快就会在华盛顿遭遇阻力。纽约时报最近报道称，一份针对10月伏击事件的军事调查草案要求五角大楼缩减其在该地区的地面行动，而不是扩大它们的规模。

Mahamane Elhadj Souleymane, who represents over 90 tribes throughout the region as chief of the Kel Eweye Tuareg confederation, said he has yet to receive a straightforward explanation from either his own government or from U.S. officials for why the Americans are building a drone base on the edge of Agadez. “We just have no idea what they are actually doing,” he said. “What happens the first time the Americans make a mistake and kill civilians?”

作为Kel Eweye Tuareg联盟的首领，代表该地区超过90个部落的Mahamane Elhadj Souleymane表示他尚未从本国政府或美国官员那里得到为什么美国人要在阿加德兹市的边缘地带建设一个无人机基地的言简意赅的解释。“我们不知道他们在做什么，”他说，“如果美国人犯了错误，杀死了平民，那怎么办？”

It’s a hypothetical question for which he already has an answer. “With the economic crisis and this government, people here are already so fed up,” he said. “One mistake and the jihadists will have no problem recruiting 200 people the next day.”

这是一个假设的问题，但是他已经有了答案。他说：“在经济危机和政府的影响下，这里的人们已经受够了。只要发生一次错误，圣战分子就完全可以在第二天招募到200个人。”