2016年世界会再次面临经济危机吗？ [英国媒体]

-------------译者：煮酒-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



arely have financial markets had a more traumatic start to the year. Shares plunged, the price of oil clattered to its lowest level in 11 years, trading on the Chinese stock market was halted twice, and the World Bank warned that a “perfect storm” might be brewing.

资本市场很少像今年一样在年初就受到这么大的冲击.股票下跌,原油价格跌到了11年来的最低点,中国股票交易市场两度熔断,世界银行警告世界经济"劫数"将会来临.

George Osborne chose his moment well to go public with his concern that the UKfaces a “cocktail of threats”. In addition to the $2tn wiped off global stock markets, the North Koreans claimed they had exploded a hydrogen bomb and relations between Saudi Arabia and Iran worsened markedly.

George Osborne(英国财政大臣)明智选择了这个全球都不安宁的时候向公众表示他对英国正在面临"危机舞会"的担心.全球股票市场蒸发掉2万亿美元,北朝鲜宣布进行了氢弹试爆,沙特和伊朗的关系显着的在恶化.

On the face of it, there seems no reason why the global markets should remain depressed. Rising oil prices have traditionally been associated with recessions, so a drop of more than two-thirds in the cost of a barrel of crude should, logically, be good for growth. Cheaper energy means lower costs for businesses and additional spending power for consumers. There are winners and losers from a falling oil price but on balance the impact should be positive.

在面对这些问题的时候,似乎无法解释全球市场为什么会这么受创.原油的价格上涨按传统的观点是会导致经济倒退,逻辑上来讲,现在原油已跌掉2/3的价格应该会对经济是有促进作用的.廉价的能源意味着低成本,消费者可将省下的钱花在其他的地方.原油的下跌,有些人受益有些人蒙受损失,总的来说对经济是有积极作用的.

-------------译者：煮酒-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

What’s more, it could be that the gloom about China is overdone. The slowdown in the rate of growth is not just intentional but desirable. Should the economy cool more quickly than planned, Beijing has plenty of power to ensure there is no hard landing: it can boost public spending; it can push the currency lower to boost exports; it can cut interest rates.

还有就是,中国的经济发展可能有些过头了.GDP减速是被预期的也是要主动去调控的。如果经济放缓速度超过计划，北京拥有足够手段来阻止硬着陆的发生：提供公共开支；贬值货币促进出口；削减利率。

Trading on the Chinese stock market was a farce. “Circuit breakers” were introduced at the start of the year to prevent turbulence, used twice to stop investors selling shares, and then abruptly dumped at the end of last week. But the chaos needs to be put into perspective. Only the rich play on the Chinese stock market and their activities have little bearing on corporate investment. Share prices rose by 150% between June 2014 and May 2015: events since have seen the froth blown off the market, but the wider implications for China, let alone the rest of the world, are negligible.

中国的股票市场就是一个闹剧,为了市场的稳定,引进了熔断机制,在成功实现两次阻止交易的熔断之后,上周末又突然的暂停了这个机制.我们需要看到混乱后面的原因.中国的股票市场是有钱人的游戏,投机的动机比投资企业活动要强.从2014年6月到2015年5月,大盘涨了150%.市场泡沫破灭,对中国的影响是微不足道的,更不用说对世界的影响了.




-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

ID3354927 9h ago
Bugger the world: what about the UK?

 干掉这世界：英国呢？

JacKlam 11h ago
Well, I still cannot see any cosensus whether it is the lack of supply, or the lack of demand. Some say there is too much supply. Others say, we are creating bubbles with the extra cash sloshing around. Then it seems to suggest that the cash is in the wrong hands, doesn't it? It seems to be a structural issue. What would happen if we gave the normal, low and middle-class people the money they have been robbed off for the past 40 years? Family incomes adjusted for inflation are the same in 2015 as they were in 1975. If done gradually maybe instead of the scary hyper-inflation we would get some badly needed growth. The 1% of population blows the asset bubbles while the 99% will soon have to go to the foodbanks. Has anybody thought that such model would work well in the long run? Maybe it's time to try something different?
 
好了，我简直不能搞清楚到底选择是供应乏力还是需求乏力。有的说货物过剩了。其他的又说，因为现金游资过多造成了泡沫.所以看起来像是这些现金掌控在那些不怀好意的人的手里,是吗?这看起来像是个结构性的议题.如果我们让一切回归正常会发生什么,底层阶层和中产阶级的钱在过去40年被洗劫了?在考虑到通货膨胀后,2015年的家庭收入和这些家庭在1975年的一样。如果这是逐渐发生而不是发生恐怖的恶性通货膨胀，让那些有钱投资的人去担忧，我可不担心，因为我的钱只够生活用。1%的人挥霍着资产泡沫的同时99%其他百姓很快就要去食物赈济处报到。 `有人考虑到那样的模式可能在长期运营下成真吗？现在可能是我们作其他尝试努力的时候？

whiskyeyes 13h ago
let those that had the money to invest worry, as I only have enough money to live on from week to week, so no worries here then.

让那些人胡乱花钱乱投资，因为我的钱只够用几周，所以不用担心。

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

alien01  whiskyeyes 9h ago
no need to be complacent, if you should lose your job and the benefits were cut, you would feel the pinch. if retired, pensions could be cut. Things can get worse. if there is pain, trust me, it is going to be people like you and me who will suffer before the rich do
 
没有必要飘飘然，如果你将会失业或者发现收入下降，你就会感觉到痛了。如果你是退休人员，养老金会被削减。事情越变越糟。相信我，如果有痛苦发生，在那些有钱人感受到以前会先来临到像你我这样的普通人身上。
 
whiskyeyes 13h ago
I am not really that worried now that I have one foot in the grave.
 
 我现在完全一点也不用担心因为我都一只脚踏进坟墓了。
 
sanmartinian 13h ago
When mankind doesn't know enough about a given subject, we first complicate it, then we politicize it.
Please simplify: what the world is going through now is a bout of severe deflation. Most prices fall from oil to gold to wheat to steel to Chinese shares. A few exceptions (London houses, for instance) are just that: exceptions.
Run away inflation is a serious economic disease: it takes one or two years to stop and leaves the economy in a shambles.
Deflation is a far worse beast: it takes decades to tackle (just look at Japan since the 90's) and normally needs a serious war with its inflationary externality to fully recover. Look at WW2.
It will need very competent and cooperative world management to stop this deflation short of a serious war.
Whether it'll come in 2016 or later I have no idea. Predicting events depends on logic; predicting dates depends on guess work.

当人们对既定前提了解不够深入的时候，我们首先把它复杂化，然后把它政治化。
请简化之：这个世界现在所经历的正是一轮严重的通货紧缩。从石油到黄金到小麦到钢铁到中国的股票，大部分东西的价格都在回落。少部分东西除外（比如，伦敦房产），这仅是个例。
摆脱通货膨胀是一种严重的经济症状：需要花上一两年来阻止并且让经济处于一团混乱中。
通货紧缩是一头更糟糕的猛兽：要花上数十年止住颓势（仅参考日本90年代至今）并且正常情况需要一场强烈度的战争，靠战争所带来的外部通货膨胀来完全拉动经济恢复。以二战为例。
没有深度战争就需要非常有效和全方位合作的世界管理运营可以停止通货紧缩。
至于它的到来使2016年还是更晚我也不知道。预测事件走向靠逻辑，预测发生时间只能靠猜。

 -------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Succe55 13h ago
Apparently China's plunge protection team are considering an IPO.
 
 显然，中国的暴跌保护小组正考虑进行IPO。
 
Veracity99 14h ago
And the Saudis will drop production when they want to twist the knife on the infidels' necks.
Inflation shoots up.

当沙特想对异教徒下手时，就会降低产量。
此时通胀暴涨。

deeegeee  Veracity99 5h ago
"Inflation shoots up"as in..the future.Have you checked the prices of basics lately.I have.personally in the US,UK & Canada.I know we have been given manipulated figures regarding inflation.. but this is blatant lying !

 未来的“通胀暴涨”。最近你查看了基本要素的价格了吗。我查看了英美加拿大的价格。我知道我们所获得通胀数据是人为操纵的。。。但是这个数据完全是假的。

AntonZ 14h ago
Crashes seem to have a periodicity of roughly 7 - 9 years so we're due for another. Unfortunately because the underlying causes are never addressed each crash will get worse. Capitalism is dead.

貌似每7-9年就会发生一次崩溃，所以再一次的崩溃即将发生。由于根本性的问题无法得到解决，所以每一次的崩溃都会变得更加严重。资本主义已经死亡。

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Veracity99  AntonZ 14h ago
Do u really believe that?
Incredible.

你真的相信吗？我也是醉了！

alien01  AntonZ 9h ago
capitalism died the day free markets died

自由市场的末日就是资本主义的末日

Phantasmagorical 14h ago
Capitalism encapsulated: Currency War: Trade War: World War:
 
 资本主义概述：货币大战，贸易大战，世界大战
 
CliveMarsh666 14h ago
In the long run inflation will destroy debt but the long run can take longer than imaginable to happen. Oh, and in the long run we'll all be dead.

 长远来看通货膨胀将摧毁债务但是这个这个长远时间比我们想象的要长远。奥，长远来看我们终有一死。

zapo 15h ago
In summary: 2016 is going to all be about China, and we don't know where the economy is today and where it will go tomorrow.
 
 总结：2016年将全取决于中国的表现，但是我们不知道现在的经济情况几何，也不知道未来会怎样。
 
David Arthur 15h ago
Although Greenspan did not see the crash coming, he was not responsible for the Sub-Prime housing bubble. That was Clinton encouraging (forcing) the Banks to lend to appropriate borrowers
 
虽然格林斯潘没有看到崩溃的来临，但是他不必对房产次级债泡沫负责。那是因为克林顿鼓励（强制）那些银行贷款给适合贷款者。
 
Jonny21 15h ago
Would anyone be surprised if China dued again and again?
 
 如果中国一次又一次的进行货币贬值的话有人会觉得惊讶吗？
 
zapo  Jonny21 15h ago
Policy seems to be falling between two stools at the moment.
 
 此时，政策看起来两头落空般失败了。
 
bonkthebonk  Jonny21 15h ago
Only if there's some sort of ongoing, undeclared currency war.....

（回复jonny21) 只有在发生某种持续性的未经宣布的货币战争时。

-------------译者：煮酒-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Voltaire21 16h ago
Beijing has plenty of power to ensure there is no hard landing...

北京有能力实现软着陆

The phrase that betrays the absolute delusions of economists. If one looks carefully at all economic bubbles in history there is not a single example of a soft landing.

可以看出这是经济学家的幻想.你如果仔细研究了历史上经济泡沫的破灭,你一个软着陆的例子都找不到.

This is all so reminiscent of articles I read about Ireland in the months when property prices started to taper off before the eventual nosedive. There was also talk there that Ireland had the tools to avoid the hard landing. Then the whole housing bubble came crashing down.

这就像在回忆我读的关于爱尔兰的书.在房地产价格开始下降,还没断崖式下跌之前.也有人说爱尔兰政府有手段来避免硬着陆.紧接着就是房地产泡沫的破裂.

Now ironically Ireland has made a miraculous comeback due to some strong cards in its deck(low corporation tax, highly skilled workforce, low corruption, small population, good geographical location etc)...

讽刺的是,现在爱尔兰由于政府打出的王牌,比如低企业税率,高素质人才,低腐败,较少的人口,好的地理位置,正是这些导致了爱尔兰奇迹般的衰退.

But China with its one billion people, overheated housing market, overcapacity in industry and superinflated stock market is 100% unable to avoid a ginormous hard landing.

中国有十多亿的人口,房地产的狂热,工业的产能过剩和股市的疯狂炒作,这些是中国政府肯定无法控制的,必将导致硬着陆.

First there was tons of liquidity injected in the market to stave off the collapse of the stockmarket, then there was the duation of the yuan to stave off the absolutely unavoidable collapse in manufacturing due to overcapacity.

大量的流动资金注入股市延缓了股市的崩溃,人民币的贬值也延缓了由产能过剩引起的制造业的衰退.

There was a telling stat that supposedly a ton of cabbage was more expensive than a ton of steel.

一吨白菜比一吨钢铁要贵,这似乎是一个衰退故事的开始.

As for the housing market...the lemmings always jump off the cliff at the same time. It's all a case of who blinks first. You know how over heated the property market is when middle class Chinese with decent jobs in big Cities house share old properties when brand new tower blocks stand empty next to them with 'middle class' flats. China is a busted flush which will drag the whole SE region into a tailspin. The sooner the better for everyone.

对于房地产,历史总是这么的相似.这是一个谁先眨眼的问题.在你知道中国在大城市上班的中产阶级挤在老旧的出租屋里,而就在他们的出租屋旁边一幢幢楼房拔地而起,却被空置着,你就知道中国的房地产行业炒作的有多热.中国经济的衰退必将让整个SE地区陷入困境.这些人们明白的越早越好.

-------------译者：围观已一年-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Veracity99  Voltaire21 14h ago
You seem to know a lot about China. Are you sure you're correct?
China is a better bet than the uk, old Europe with public sector super pensions and a rapidly aging non-productive population.
 
你看起来对中国很了解。你确信你是正确的吗？
在公共统筹养老保险和快速长的无劳动能力老龄化人口方面，比起英国和老欧洲，中国是更好的选择。

Claudia Davidson 16h ago
I had to smile at the title of this piece. I didn't realize we had come out of economic crisis. For most people things have been getting steadily worse for several years now. To imagine being worse than this is surely the stuff nightmares are made of.

我必须对着文章标题笑一会儿。说得好像我们已经走出经济危机似的。这几年来，大部分人的境况都每况愈下。比这更糟糕的情况，想想都让人觉得是个噩梦。