印日铁路项目打水漂了？ [日本媒体]

The construction of a new high-speed railway line in India is scheduled to officially get underway this year, connecting the commercial capital of Mumbai and the industrial city of Ahmedabad in the western part of the country. The project to build the line fashioned after Japan’s shinkansen system is a product of an agreement between Prime Minister Shinzo Abe and his Indian counterpart, Narendra Modi, in their December 2015 summit.

印度连接经济首都孟买和西部工业城市艾哈迈达巴德的高速铁路官方计划今年开始动工。
这个计划建造日本新干线模式的高铁项目是日本首相安倍晋三和印度伙伴纳伦德拉 莫迪 在2015年12月的峰会上的产品。

Yet anxiety is already rising due to soaring costs brought about by haphazard policies of the Indian government, leading both the Japanese government and Japanese firms to start getting bogged down.

然而由于印度政府混乱的管理产生的飙升的成本让人们感觉到焦虑。这让日本政府和企业都陷入了泥沼。

On Sept. 14 last year, less than two years after the summit, a groundbreaking ceremony was held in Ahmedabad, attended by both Abe and Modi. The total cost of the project is set at 1.08 trillion rupees (about ￥1.8 trillion). Of that total, 880 billion rupees (about ￥1.46 trillion) earmarked for the actual construction work is to be funded by yen-denominated loans from the Japanese government with an annual interest rate of 0.1 percent and repayable in 50 years.

在去年的9月14日，峰会后不到两年，在艾哈迈达巴德举行了盛大的启动仪式，安倍和莫迪都参加了仪式。工程总成本计划为1.08万亿卢比（1.8万亿日元）。全部成本中，用于实际建设工作的8800亿卢比(1.46万亿日元)由日本政府提供日元贷款，年利率为0.1%，期限为50年。

The terms of the loans, which a Japanese Foreign Ministry official said are “exceptionally generous,” show how infatuated Tokyo is with the project. Indeed, Modi said at the groundbreaking ceremony that Japan was providing India with funds at a near zero interest rate.

贷款的条款，用日本首相的官方发言来说,是“极度的慷慨”，展现了东京对这个项目的执迷。确实，莫迪也在启动仪式上说日本几乎提供了零利率的的资金。

Maybe India feels that the railway line will be constructed by Japan virtually for free. An Indian official confided that the yen-denominated loans come close to a “gift” if inflation is taken into consideration.

大概是因为印度认为这条铁路线将要由日本人几乎免费建造。一个印度官员私下吐露日元贷款如果考虑到贬值的话，几乎就是个“礼物”。

In mid-March, meanwhile, more than 60,000 farmers took to the streets in Mumbai, which is in the state of Maharashtra, demanding full implementation of the promise made by the Maharashtra state government to forgive their debts and also seeking higher purchase prices for agricultural products.

然而，在3月中旬，超过6万名马哈拉施特拉邦的孟买的农民走上街头，要求马哈拉施特拉邦政府履行其承诺，免除其债务并且寻求农产品更高的售价。

The state government of Maharashtra gave into the farmers’ demands and promised full cancelation of all of their debts. Why was the state government so generous to the farmers even at the risk of creating a moral hazard? The answer is simple. There will be general elections next year and the Modi regime cannot afford to antagonize farmers, who account for 60 percent of the nation’s eligible voters. And the farmers know that the government cannot ignore their demands.

马哈拉施特拉邦政府允诺了农民的要求，承诺完全免除他们所有的债务。为什么马哈拉施特拉邦政府对农民如此慷慨即使会因此产生道德风险?答案很简单。下一年会有选举，莫迪政权无法承受惹怒农民，这些农民组成了全国60%的有效选举者。而且农民们知道政府无法忽略他们的要求。

Noteworthy is the fact that the agreement reached between the state government and the farmers included a provision on the “Bullet Train,” which stipulates that the wishes of landowners will be fully taken into account in connection with the construction of the high-speed railway. This vaguely worded provision could lead to an unrestrained escalation of the farmers’ demands when it comes to the purchase of their land for the project.

值得注意的是，事实上邦政府和农民达成的协议中包含了一个关于“高速列车”的条款。这个条款激起了土地所有者参与到高速铁路项目中去的愿望。当项目征收土地时，这个用词含糊不清的条款可能会导致农民的要求不受约束的增加。

Indeed, land acquisition for the project is progressing at an extremely slow pace. Because India is a democratic country, the government cannot forcibly take property away from its citizens as China is doing. When the high-speed railway project plan was started, earthen embankments were to be built along 322 km, or 64 percent, of the total 505 km of tracks between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.

事实上，项目征地进展的极度缓慢。因为印度是个民主国家，政府不能像中国那样强制夺取公民的财产。当高速铁路项目开始的时候，孟买到艾哈迈达巴德之间的322公里（505公里中的64%）铁路的路堤将要被修建。

Although elevated railroads were originally planned to cover 144 km, or 28 percent of the total, the elevated portions have been made much longer and the embankments much shorter. India made the changes on the grounds that it is too time-consuming to purchase land for embankments and that embankments will carry an inherent danger of trains colliding with people and cattle. But the real reason for the changes was that since purchase of land is not covered by the yen-denominated loans from Japan and is supposed to be carried out by the Indian side, India wanted to reduce its costs.

尽管原计划高架桥要覆盖144公里（总长的28%），但实际高架桥部分比之前长很多，路堤部分相应也短了很多。印度做出这样的变动是基于路堤征地太费时间，路堤先天具有易与列车，人和牲畜相撞的危险等理由。但变动真实的原因是征地没有被日本提供的日元贷款所覆盖，而应该由印度方面负责完成，印度想节约成本。

Ultimately about 90 percent of the entire railway line will be elevated. But this change has not been reported by the media. Strangely, the total cost of the project remains unchanged from 2015 at ￥1.8 trillion even though a railway journalist points out that changing from an embankment to an elevated railroad will more than triple the construction cost. A staff member of a Japanese trading firm stationed in India says that the change will fatten the total cost by hundreds of billions of yen. Yet no such figures have been made public.

最终90%的铁路线路将会采用高架桥形式。但是这个改变并没有被媒体报道。但奇怪的是，项目总成本仍然保持不变，维持在2015年的1.8万亿，尽管一个记者曾指出从路堤变成高架桥建设成本会是之前的3倍。一个日本驻印度贸易公司的员工说这个变化会导致成本增加几千亿日元。然而这样的数字公众并不知道。

Arbitrary changes by India are not limited to this. New Delhi has now told Tokyo that the date for starting the operation of the high-speed train services will be moved up by one year from the original target date of 2023 as agreed on at the groundbreaking event. This came as a total surprise to Japan even though local media quoted a high-ranking Indian government official as saying that the train services will start in 2022 to mark the 75th anniversary of India’s independence.

印度这种随心所欲的变更并不仅限于此。新德里现在已经告诉东京高速铁路项目提供服务的日期由之前在启动仪式上一致同意的2023提前一年。这对日本来说完全是个突袭，尽管当地媒体引用了一个高阶印度政府官员的话称高速列车将要在2022年开始提供服务用于纪念印度独立75周年。

When Keiichi Ishii, the minister of land, infrastructure, transport and tourism, visited India last December, the Indian side is said to have hinted at a partial opening of the projected railway line.

当日本国土交通大臣石井启一在去年12月访问印度的时候，据称印度方面在部分开放的规划中的铁路线路对此变化进行了暗示。

Since the high-speed train project is a showpiece project for the Modi administration, India arbitrarily changes plans, unmindful of the situation faced by Japan.

因为高速铁路项目是莫迪执政的一个展示工程，所以印度随意更改计划，不顾日本所面临的状况。

Accelerating the speed of construction will naturally entail additional costs. It appears all but certain that India will ask Japan to shoulder the increased costs as a matter of course. If the aforementioned agreement with the farmers is implemented arbitrarily, there will be a chance that India will ask for changes in the railway route as well as for changes in the specifications of the railway system. The construction costs will most likely rise, and there is no chance that they will go down.

加速修建计划将自然会增加额外的成本。显然印度会要求日本共同承担增加的成本。如果之前提到的与农民的协议被强行执行的话，可能印度会要求改变铁路路线以及铁路系统的规格。建设成本极可能会升高，不可能下降。

One of the reasons Japan was able to grab the contract for the Indian project despite stiff competition with other countries was the safety proven by its shinkansen system, which is said to be the “world’s best.” But a major crack found last December on a bogie frame of a shinkansen car could shake the system’s reputation for safety.

日本能够在同其他国家激烈的竞争中得到这个印度项目的一个原因是新干线系统的据称有“世界最高”的安全性。但去年12月在新干线车厢的转向架发现的裂痕可能会动摇这个系统安全性的名声。

An official of the Japanese transport ministry has expressed fear that this incident might lead India to sound out other countries about manufacturing the rolling stock or demand more use of Indian products for the project.

日本交通省的一名官员表达了这个事件可能会导致印度向其他国家寻求制造列车或者要求更多使用印度产品的担忧。

Japan offered extraordinarily favorable loan terms to India for constructing the Mumbai-Ahmedabad railway line because it expected that Japanese companies would be able to win similar deals for speed-train railway projects covering all of the subcontinent. But the aforementioned railway journalist says that India has not made any decision on other projects and that there is a high possibility those projects will be awarded to Europe or China.

日本为孟买到艾哈迈达巴德的高铁提供了优厚的贷款条件因为它期望日本公司能够赢下南亚大陆类似的其他高铁项目。但之前提到的铁路记者说印度还没有对其他项目做出任何决定，而且有很高的可能性这些项目会给欧洲或者中国。

Earlier this year it was reported that a joint venture including Obayashi Corp., a major Japanese general contractor, will likely win an order to build a high-speed railway section near Ahmedabad. That means that Japan has already gone beyond the point of no return as far as the Mumbai-Ahmedabad project is concerned.

今年年初，一个包括大林组株式会社（一个日本主要的建筑商）的合资公司很有可能会获得一个建造艾哈迈达巴德周边段的高铁订单。这意味着日本在孟买到艾哈迈达巴德的高铁项目上已经没有回头之路。

At the groundbreaking ceremony last September, Abe said both the private and public sectors of Japan will work hard together for the good of India. But Japan now faces the possibility of wastefully pouring large sums of Japanese taxpayers’ money into the project. That would be the price that the Japanese people would be paying for their government committing itself to a project without fully considering the possible consequences.

在去年9月的启动仪式上，安倍说日本政府和私营企业将会为亚洲的利益共同努力。但日本面临着将日本纳税者的钱大量的浪费到这个项目上的可能性。这将是日本人民为他们的政府没有全盘考虑可能的后果而买单。


Mesquite Ice • a day ago 
The author does not understand business or economics. Every trial project is a potential waste, but companies that believe in their products are confident enough to offer it free for the first time. Japanese banks anyway led at sub zero rates to japanese industry and therefore this deal is a good way for them to hedge their risks while also globalising the SHINKANSEN brand. Today the mantra is Build Operate Transfer. The author is assuming that farm loan waivers would mean that lands cannot be acquired. The author should see that actually so much highways are being laid out daily in India by acquiring lands from farmers. Every opportunity will come with a risk and therefore the Author cannot get one without the other

这个作者不懂商业或者经济。每一个实验项目都有可能是个浪费，但是对相信自己产品的公司由足够的信心为第一个项目提供免费服务。不管怎样，日本银行为日本企业采取负利率，因此这个项目对于他们来说是规避风险的好机会，同时还提升新干线品牌的国际化。现在奉行的准则是“建造”，“运营”，“移交”。作者假设农民的贷款波动会意味着无法征收到土地。作者应该看看现在每天印度实际通过从农民征地建造的高速公路。每个机会都会伴随着风险，因此作者你不能因噎废食。

rohit  @Mesquite Ice  • a day ago 
totally agree. i also said there is no free lunch, but the author just cannot see our point that comparatively this is actually a great deal for both countries. In my opinion there is definitely a quid pro quo for both countries, like you said with much scope for HSR development, shinkansen branding, and institutional collaboration between india and japan in the future. Also like you said on the ground the lands are being acquired. in fact it just came out today that 51% of acquisition work for mumbai and 58% for gujarat is already completed. hope one day the author can open his eyes from the cattle picture in bad taste that he has posted, and see the ground reality that this project is nearer to completion day-by-day, and in all likelihood will be finished by 2022.

完全同意。我也说过没有免费的午餐，但是作者就是没有看到事实上这对两个国家都相当重要。在我看来，这对两个国家是对等的。就像你说的，高速铁路建设的巨大影响，新干线品牌的提升，日本-印度之间未来紧密的合作等。也正如你说的，地面上土地被征用，事实上到今天孟买51%的土地征用工作和古吉拉特邦58%的工作已经完成。希望有一天作者能从他糟糕品味描绘的牲口照片中睁开眼睛看看基本现实是这个项目正在每天正在朝完工靠近，并很有可能在2022年完工。

Mohammad John Lim • 2 days ago 
china has the final laugh for not getting this project.....

中国因为没拿下这个项目而笑到最后….

Amit • 2 days ago
Election year would mean many of these plans would be thrown to the wind - the government is obviously more focused on keeping itself in power than Mumbai-Ahmedabad HSR, which will not fetch any votes. And most of the "free press" in India anyway bat for the government these days, so these will not be in the news.

选举年意味着很多这样的计划会被丢在风中 - 比起孟买艾哈迈达巴德高铁这个不会增加选票的项目政府明显更在意维持自己的政权。印度大多数的“自由媒体”当前总归会为政府辩护，所以这些不会出现在新闻中。

However the calculation based on 0.1% JPY loan is flawed, because this doesn't account for FX rate forecast over next 20-30 years as well as the long term yields of the two currencies. When we take all these into account (which are all based on a lot of assumptions, anyway) the loan doesn't look "extremely generous" at all, because the FX risk is borne out by the Indian govt. and not the Japanese govt. And anyway, JPY has close to zero interest rate for decades and on top of that we have quantitative easing going on for years.

然而基于0.1%日元贷款的计算是错误的，因为这个计算没有包含货币外汇汇率今后20-30年的预计以及两种货币的长期收益率。当我们把所有这些纳入考虑时（当然，都是基于很多的假设），这个贷款根本就不“极度慷慨”，因为外汇风险被印度政府证实，而不是日本政府。不管怎样，日元几十年来都是几乎零利率，除此之外我们几年来一直在量化宽松。

In geopolitical dynamics, all "free press" end up as the cheerleaders for their own country and so called "generosities" are extremely rare (Germany's refugee policy is one such example).

在地缘政治中，所有的“自由媒体”最终都会维护自己的国家利益，所谓的“慷慨”极度的罕见（德国的难民制度就是这样一个例子）。

rohit  @Amit • 2 days ago 
in the context of country to country loans given out, this is amongst the most generous loans given out by japan to other countries for sure. if not, please provide evidence, fx exchange forecasts can also go in indias favor as the yen weakens, so that means absolutely zero. of course at the end of the day there is no free lunch, but lokking at the gamut of deals in the international ambit india definitely came out ahead in this one. as an indian i heavily disagree with you, as mr. prabhu and the bjp government have been steadfast in their commitment to this project. you cannot just say they will leave it for vote pandering, this is NOT congress. mind your words. it is definitely a boon to india, and WILL spark a boom of hsr in the years to come, despite naysayers like you, mark my words.

在国与国之间的国家贷款中，这肯定是相对日本给与其他国家的贷款中最慷慨其中的一个了。如果不是，请给出证据。外汇汇率的预测当日元变弱的时候也有可能对印度有利，所以这没有任何意义。当然没有免费的午餐，但是看看全世界的大量的合同，印度的这一个绝对是领先了。作为一个印度人，我严重的不同意你，尤其当普拉布先生和印度人民党政府坚定不移的投入到这个项目中时。你不能说他们为了迎合选票而对它置之不理，他们不是国大党。注意你的语言。这对印度绝对是个恩惠，也将会在接下来的几年让印度的高速铁路蓬勃发展，尽管有你这样的反对者。记住我的话。

GBR48 • 2 days ago
The small print. It's there for a reason.

小号字印刷的附加条款，它在那是有原因的

If the Japanese side have control over materials, tell them to stick to the original costs or you will deliver a Shinkansen made out of cardboard and old bicycle parts. It'll be fine if everyone pedals when they are told to and they keep it out of the rain.

如果日本方面控制原材料，告诉印度人严格遵守最初成本否则你们会得到纸板和旧自行车零件组装的新干线。如果人们被告知只能踩脚踏车不会有什么问题的，他们还会不让雨淋了他的脚踏车。

Next time, don't leave your taxpayers contractually exposed to such third world shenanighans. 

下次，别让你的纳税者面对这样的第三世界鬼把戏。

rohit • 2 days ago +3
third world shenanigans? oh shove it. give me a break. this is absolutely just the author hating on india. most of the allegations put forth are false, and the author is trying to paint a backwards image of india by putting a picture of a man with a turban next to cattle. construction on the line has already begun. we wear suits and ties with hard hats now, not turbans. he has negated to mention that there will be no cattle zones, and there is simply no such stipulation ambiguously worded for the bullet train that would have japanese taxpayers bearing the cost. stop spreading misinformation, and hate in the india japan relationship. we will succeed despite your best efforts.

第三世界的鬼把戏？算了，饶了我吧。这绝对因为是作者恨印度。大部分提到的指控都是错误的。作者试图通过描绘一个站立在牛旁边带着头巾的人的画面来传达落后的印度的印象。工程的建设已经开始。我们现在穿着西装，打着领带，戴上了安全帽而不是头巾。他没有提到将不会有牲口区域。同样也没有什么会让日本纳税者承担成本的关于高速列车用词含糊不清的条款。停止散播虚假消息和对印日关系的仇恨。尽管你很努力的诋毁但我们还是会成功。

jack  rohit • 6 hours ago
that picture in particular -- quite offensive.

特别是那个图片-非常冒犯。

ack • 6 hours ago
This is a huge misconception about land acquisition, and the take away is habitual underrating of China's ability. Taking land away has nothing to do with democratic systems or not. Lets not blindly repeat this mantra. US has eminent domain laws that allow the government to take land as well. (Sanity check wikipedia) Its about legal systems and their implementation. News has a bad habit to promote misconceptions and to dumb everything down, please study more the wide variety of land acquisition laws around the globe.

这是对征地的巨大误解，剥夺是对中国能力的习惯性诋毁。征地跟民主与否没有一点关系。让我们别再盲目的重复这个教条。美国有民地徵用法允许政府强制获取土地（合理性检查- wikipedia）。这关乎于法律系统和它们的实施。新闻有个推广错误认知的坏习惯，并且让人们变傻。请更多的了解世界各国的土地征用的多样性。

John von Shepard • 14 hours ago
Never fund anything in India! I remember watching this documentary about big American Wall street company building high tech power station in India and they lose all they their money because Indian don't have the money to pay for electricity bill.

永远不要资助印度的任何东西。我记得看一个纪录片关于一个大型美国华尔街公司在印度建造高科技电站，然后他们赔光了所有钱因为印度人没有钱付他们的电费。