中国利率下调，引起对经济疲软的担忧 [英国媒体]

China interest rate cut fuels fears over ailing economy

中国利率下调，引起对经济疲软的担忧



China fuelled fears that its ailing economy is about to slow further after Beijing cut its main interest rate by 0.25 percentage points.

北京下调主要利率0.25个百分点后，引发了对于疲软的中国经济将会进一步放缓的担忧。

The unexpected rate cut, the sixth since November last year, reduced the main bank base rate to 4.35%. The one-year deposit rate will fall to 1.5% from 1.75%.

去年11月以来的第六次意外降息，主要银行的基准利率下调至4.36%，一年期存款利率从1.75% 降至1.5%。

The move follows official data earlier this week showing that economic growth in the latest quarter fell to a six-year low of 6.9%. A decline in exports was one of the biggest factors, blamed partly by analysts on the high value of China’s currency, the yuan.

在此之前，这周的官方数据显示最近一个季度的经济增长达到6年新低6.9%。主要原因是出口减少，部分归咎于分析师对于人民币估价太高。

The rate cut sent European stock markets higher as investors welcomed the boost from cheaper credit in China, together with the hint of further monetary easing by the European Central Bank president, Mario Draghi, on Thursday.

这次降息使欧洲股市走高，投资者十分欢迎增加来自中国的廉价信贷，而且欧洲央行行长Mario Draghi在周四还暗示要放宽货币政策。

Investors were also buoyed by the likelihood that the US Federal Reserve would be forced to signal another delay to the first US rate rise since the financial crash of 2008-2009 until later next year.

美联储将会在明年晚些时候被迫发出再次推迟自2008年金融危机后第一次加息的信号，投资者被这个不确定消息鼓舞着。

The FTSE 100 was up just over 90 points, or 1.4%, at 6466, while the German Dax and French CAC were up almost 3%.

金融时报100指数仅仅上涨了90个点左右，或者说1.4%，位于6466点。而德国达克斯指数和法国CAC指数上涨了近3%。

The People’s Bank of China’s last rate cut in August triggered turmoil in world markets after Beijing combined the decision with a 2% reduction in the yuan’s value. Shocked at the prospect of a slide in the Chinese currency, investors panicked and sent markets plunging.

继北京联合决定人民币贬值2%之后，中国人民银行上一次在8月份的降息引发全球市场动荡。震惊于中国货币下滑的前景，投资者感到恐慌，市场暴跌。

Some economists have warned that the world economy is about to experience a third leg of post-crash instability after the initial banking collapse and eurozone crisis. The slowdown in China, as it reduces debts and a dependence for growth on investment in heavy industry and property, will be the third leg.

一些经济学家提出了警告，世界经济将会经历初期银行崩溃和欧元区危机后不稳定的第三站。中国经济放缓，因为它减少了债务，重工业和房地产对投资增长的依赖将会是第三站

World trade has already contracted this year with analysts forecasting weaker trade next year. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) in July trimmed its forecast for global economic growth for this year to 3.1% from 3.3% previously, mainly as a result of China’s slowing growth. The Washington-based fund also warned that the weak recovery in the west risks turning into near stagnation.

世界贸易今年已经萎缩，分析师预言明年的贸易将会更不景气。中国经济的放缓，导致国际货币基金组织7月份下调了今年对全球经济的预期，从3.3%降到了3.1%。总部设在华盛顿的基金组织还警告称西方的复苏乏力会演变成几近停滞。

At its October annual meeting, it said growth in the advanced countries of the west is forecast to pick up slightly, from 1.8% in 2014 to 2% in 2015 while growth in the rest of the world is expected to fall from 4.6% 

在10月的年度会议上,西方发达国家的增长预计略有起色,从2014年的1.8%到2015年的2%，而在世界其他地区，增长预计从4.6%降至4%。

Sanjiv Shah, chief investment Officer of Sun Global Investments, said: “The Chinese decision indicates that the authorities are clearly worried about the slowdown in the pace of economic growth and have decide to engage in more pre-emptive action. The [People’s Bank of China] has cut benchmark rates and reduced banks’ reserve requirements as well as scrapping deposit controls.”

太阳全球投资公司的首席投资官Sanjiv Shah说道：中国的决定表面当局明显担心中国经济增长的步伐放缓，决定采用预先措施。中国人民银行下调了存款准备金，减少了银行的存款要求以及取消存款的限制。

But Mark Williams, chief Asia economist at Capital Economics, remained upbeat about the prospects for China’s sustained growth, arguing that the cut in interest rates was part of a longer-term strategy and not a reaction to deteriorating growth.

但是资本市场的首席亚洲经济学家Mark Williams对中国的持续增长保持乐观，指出利率下调是长期策略中的一部分，而不是反应恶化的经济增长。

“The key point is that we shouldn’t take today’s announcement as evidence that policymakers have grown more concerned about the economy. Instead, this is a controlled easing cycle that underlines how China’s policymakers, unlike many of their peers elsewhere, still have room for policy manoeuvre,” he said.

关键是我们不应该将目前的公告作为政策制定者对经济的关注提高的证据。相反，这是一个可控的降息周期，突出了中国政策制定者不像其他地区的同龄人一样，政策依然有回旋的余地，他说道。

“Admittedly, we’re still waiting for clear evidence of an economic turnaround – September’s activity data still don’t show any great improvement. Nonetheless, with more stimulus in the pipeline, we still believe the economy will look stronger soon.”

“诚然，我们依然等待着经济回转的明显证据，9月份的活动数据依然没有显示巨大的提升。然而，随着更多的管道刺激，我们依然相信经济将会更加强劲”

Corporations considered bellwethers of the global economy have also warned of a sharp slowdown. Caterpillar, the industrial equipment manufacturer, has seen profits slide over the last year. AP Moller-Maersk, the shipping firm cut its 2015 profit forecast by 15% on Friday, blaming a slowdown in the container shipping market. 

企业认为全球经济的领头羊也警告了一次大幅的放缓，卡特彼勒，工业设备制造商，已经看见了利润比去年同期下滑。莫勒集团，船运公司在周五将2015年的利润预期下调了15%，抱怨集装箱市场的不景气。

The Danish conglomerate operates Maersk Line, the world’s largest container shipping company which transports roughly 20% of all goods on the busiest routes between Asia and Europe.

丹麦集团经营世界上最大的集装箱运输公司：马士基航运公司，运送了所有商品的20%左右，行驶在亚洲与欧洲最繁忙的航线上。



soundofthesuburbs  soundofthesuburbs 
1d ago 
This explains the Greek situation.
They keep lending them more money when they can’t meet the current repayments.
Nonsensical until you realise this is happening all over the place and it the only way to keep the failing monetary system on the road.

这就解释了希腊的情况，当不能偿还目前的债务是不惜借更多的钱。这没有意义，直达呢意识到这种情况在全世界都在发生，而且这是唯一途径保持来失败的货币体系。

pigswiggle 
1d ago
Watching the neoliberals flounder at running an economy would be amusing were it not hurting so many people's lives.

如果不是伤害了这么多人的生命，看着新自由主义者折腾着运行一个经济体将会很有趣

vulcansoul 
1d ago
Meanwile, the EURO has lost a whopping 3% within the last 24 hours of Draghi announcing further intentional weakening of the European currency (we remember: the Yuan devaluation by an equal 3% this summer led to major market upheavals and the world questioning Chinese growth). Unsurprisingly, NO report on that in Western MSM whatsoever!

同时，欧元在Draghi宣布进一步刻意削弱欧洲货币后的24个小时内已经贬值高达3%，（我们记住：这个夏天人民币贬值3%引起了主要市场动荡及中国增长的质疑）意料之中的事，在西方的msm上没有任何报道。

The underlying problem is that the global monetary system has failed with too much debt in existence.
The current monetary system has the following characteristics:
1) It is debt based, new money can only be created from new debt
2) It uses compound interest
Compound interest is an exponential function that, without prudent lending, will run away to infinity at some point.
When money creation lies with banks, there is always the over-whelming desire to increase profits by lending out more than would be prudent (their profit comes from the interest received).
The temptation of jam today, makes borrowers forget about the penury tomorrow.
The system relies on prudent lending by bankers who are purveyors of the debt products, e.g. loans, mortgages, etc ...
The temptation to increase profits though increasing interest payments and debt was too much and they developed ways to take no responsibility for repayment of loans through things like securitisation and complex financial instruments. In the sub-prime fiasco we saw NINA (no income, no asset) loans as no one cared if the money got paid back.
Individual players can post profits and collect bonuses by issuing bad debt but their actions together will bring down the debt based monetary system as the compound interest repayments overwhelm the system.
For the last seven years we have seen rock bottom interest rates, the last ditch attempt to keep the compound interest mounting up under control.
For all intents and purposes the global monetary system has failed already.

根本的问题是，全球货币体系已经失败，太多的债务存在。
目前的货币制度具有以下特点：
1）它是基于债务，新的资金只能来自新的债务产生
2）采用复利
复利是一个指数函数，如果没有审慎的贷款，就跑到正无穷。
当货币创造在于银行，总有过空前的愿望被借出更多的来增加利润比将是审慎（他们的利润来源于收取的利息）。
今天的诱惑果酱,让借款人明天忘记贫穷。
系统依赖于银行债务产品的供应商审慎的贷款，如贷款、抵押贷款等……增加利润的诱惑虽然增加利息和债务太多,他们开发的方式将不负责偿还的贷款通过证券化和复杂的金融工具。在次级惨败我们看到尼娜(没有收入,没有资产)贷款没有人关心如果钱偿还。
个别玩家可以利润和奖金收集后通过发行坏账,但他们的行动一起将降低债务偿还基础货币体系作为复利淹没系统。
过去七年来,我们所看到的最低利率,最后放弃试图控制复利越来越多了。
无论对于意图还是目的，全球货币体系已经失败了。