进口中国商品让美国男人更难结婚？研究显示制造业就业丢失降低结婚率 [英国媒体]

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A new study contends that cheap Chinese imports and the loss of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. has contributed to a decline in marriage rates that other kinds of employment may not fully make up for.

一个新的研究主张，在美国廉价的中国进口商品和制造业岗位流失导致了结婚率降低，这是其他类型就业无法完全弥补的。

The intriguing new study published this month by the National Bureau of Economic Research examines how trade shocks to manufacturing jobs in the U.S. affect marriage rates fertility and childhood poverty.

美国国家经济研究局上个月发布了这个有趣的研究，调查贸易对制造业岗位的冲击如何影响结婚率、生育和儿童贫困。

The results are at times surprising and may bolster the case that the offshoring of manufacturing jobs has damaged the traditional social fabric of American life.

研究结果有时是令人意外的，也许会支持制造业岗位外包损害了美国生活的传统社会结构这一情况。

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The study asserts that for every one percent increase in Chinese imports the share of women who are married decreases by about 1.3 percent. As well birth rates drop about four percent and child poverty rates increase by a whopping 12 percent.

这项研究断言，对中国的进口每增加百分之一，已婚妇女的比例就减少了约百分之1.3。以及出生率下降约百分之四，儿童贫困率增长高达百分之12。

First the study's authors use data from across the U.S. to show that the more people in the workforce are employed in manufacturing the generally higher the marriage rate.

首先这项研究的作者用来自美国各地的数据表明，从事制造业的劳动力人口越多，通常结婚率就越高。

Conversely the more people who are employed in non-manufacturing jobs the generally lower the marriage rate authors David Autor David Dorn and Gordon Hanson write in their study titled 'When Work Disappears.'

相反的，越多的劳动力人口从事非制造业，结婚率就越低。作者David Autor、David Dorn 和Gordon Hanson在他们的研究“当工作消失时”里写道。

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The economists put forward a potentially uncomfortable but fascinating explanation for this phenomenon: trade shocks to manufacturing jobs have reduced the wage gap between men and women.

经济学家们对这种现象提出一个可能令人不安但十分吸引人的解释：制造业岗位遭受的贸易冲击降低了男女之间的工资差距。

'Shocks that compress the gender earnings differential in a local market reduce the attractiveness of men as potential spouses thus reducing fertility and especially marriage rates' they write. And 'male manufacturing jobs earn higher industry wage premia than female manufacturing jobs.'

“在本地市场中，性别收入差距缩小的冲击降低了男性对潜在配偶的吸引力，从而降低了生育力，特别是结婚率。“他们写道。并且，男性制造业岗位比女性制造业岗位能赚取更高的工业工资奖金。

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In other words women are more likely to marry when there are plenty of single men around who earn more money than they do and manufacturing jobs tend to employ more men and pay them higher wages than women.

换言之，当女性周围有大量收入高于她们的单身男性时，女性更乐意结婚。而制造业岗位趋向于雇佣更多的男性并支付他们比女性更高的工资。

The study's authors find the converse is true: when wages are more equal between the genders fewer women marry or have children though a higher percentage of those who do have children have them out of wedlock.

研究的作者发现反过来也是对的：当性别之间的工资越平等，越少的女性结婚或者生孩子。即使有非婚生子女的女性比例更高。


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mrtri Amsterdam Netherlands moments ago
clinton made it possible

 克林顿让这成为可能
 
wellthatsinteresting phoenix United States 1 hour ago
Just wait until 3D printing technology gets going...

 等着吧，直到3D打印技术开始实行……
 
Patty Pat Any City United States 1 hour ago 
Seems sort of like common sense to me. But I guess it is nice to have a study to back up all the anecdotal evidence that this is true. But it would seem that it only holds true for responsible Americans. There are whole segments of America that do not take economic conditions (the ability to provide for their offspring) into consideration when having kids.

对我而言这有点像是常识。但我想这也挺好，有个研究支持所有的坊间证据是真实的。但这似乎只适用于那些有责任感的美国人。在美国有一整个阶层的人在要孩子的时候从来不考虑他们的经济情况（抚养后代的能力）。

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Hibbing one of them United States 1 hour ago
Funny how the press was not interested in the working man for the last eight years. Next they will discover that there are all these homeless people.

 搞笑吧，为何过去八年新闻界对工人们没有丝毫兴趣。接下来他们就会发现所有这些无家可归的人们。
 
orion1980 scottsdale United States 1 hour ago
what an IDIOT STUDY!!!....this is pure COMMON SENSE...you dilute and destroy the economic base and it will ripple across the entire society...including marriage!!.....crappy products no products no local manufacturing high un-employment low motivation and psychological damage from a worsening economy.... THANKS TO GREEDY BUSINESSES......its all BAD!

 何等愚蠢的研究！！！……这就是个纯粹的常识……你们削弱并摧毁了经济基础，这将波及整个社会……包括婚姻！！……垃圾产品、没有产品、没有本土制造、高失业率、低动力以及糟糕的经济带来的心理创伤……多亏了你们这些贪婪的企业……简直糟透了！
 
justsomedude yabbadabbadoo Germany 1 hour ago
Women don't want a scrub...

女人们不会想要一个水货的……

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abe.normal Jupiter Åland Islands 2 hours ago
women wants to get married ... men wants to stay single ...

 女人们想结婚……男人们想保持单身……
 
Magic Pat Indian Harbour Beach United States 3 hours ago
after WWII the USA way of trading with its partners was you buy from us but we will not buy from you. This hurt Engalnd and Europe. China is not to blame. The problem is we have a mechanized robot industrymost people will not get degrees in industry's that are successful today there is a great shortage in electrical and mechanical engineering . Get a degree in careers that are doing well.Most company's have outsourced their services overseas and last of all the world in how we buy things have changed to buying on line instead of buying in stores that hire employees. Do not blame China

在第二次世界大战以后，美国与它的拍档们贸易的方式是你从我们这儿买，但是我们不会从你那买。这损害了英国和欧洲。中国不该被责怪。问题在于我们有个机械化的机器人工业，大多数人不会获得工业方面的学位。这成功了，如今在机电工程方面有个巨大的缺口。在职业生涯搞个学位会发展的很好。大多数公司把他们的服务外包到海外，最后世上所有人都在网上买东西，而不在雇佣雇员的商店买东西。别归咎于中国了。

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reality truth lehigh valley United States 2 hours ago
You are so wrong. I was in an American business where all of the American generated technology was transferred overseas. Most of the very well trained and still highly skilled older engineers were canned and H1-B replacements were brought in. These guys were made to work unreasonable hours where there was no balance between family life and work. The product quality was reduced but it didn't matter. The product lines were all moved overseas and many still great engineers went scrambling to find jobs leaving behind life long friends and family and familiar environment. This has been going on for over 20 years. I am still and engineer for decades and I work hard to stay on top but there is an anti-American wall out there

你大错特错了。我在一家美国企业工作，在那儿所有美国产生的技术都被转移到海外。大多数训练有素、技艺精湛的老工程师被解雇，引进那些持有H1-B工作签证的外来人才作为替代。这些家伙被迫在工时不合理的情况工作，难以平衡好家庭生活和工作。产品质量降低了，但无所谓。生产线全部转移到了海外，许多依然很棒的工程师争先恐后的去找工作，留下一生的挚友、亲人和熟悉的环境。这样的情况持续了20年了。我仍然是个干了几十年的工程师，我一直努力工作以保持巅峰，但扛不住这反美的墙。

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WRBaq Dallas United States 3 hours ago
I have been working a blue collar trade for 15 years now.My salary is about 50000 a year. Very long hours.I got bored of this job and tried to find something else here in Dallas/Fort Worth.I am told the economy here is very good.Without a college degree all I could find was 10.00 an hour jobs.So I had to go back to my old job.Will have to go to school to change careers.It is very hard out there for people who have no college or a trade.

 我干了15年的蓝领了。我的薪水大约是50000一年。非常长的工时。我厌烦了这份工作，想去达拉斯或者沃斯堡再找份工作。我听说那边的经济很不错。但没有大学文凭，我能找到的只有10块钱一个小时的工作。所以我只能回去干我的老本行。真想再上次学好换个职业。在这儿人们如果没有大学文凭或者手艺找工作真心太难。
 
justsomedude yabbadabbadoo Germany 1 hour ago
Look into the IT field virtualization i.e. Hyper-V VMware or even Citrix. Azure or even AWS. Better yet SCCM. Learn that and can guarantee you will find work. PC's most PC's from 4 years ago can run either platform.

尝试一下IT领域的虚拟化技术吧，比如Hyper-V、 VMware甚至Citrix、Azure 或者AWS。最好是SCCM。学会这些可以保证你找到工作。大多数四年前的电脑可以在任意一个平台运行。

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wellthatsinteresting phoenix United States 1 hour ago
Justsomedude you will find that as you get past 50 learning a new trade becomes difficult... There's the rub...

 同志们，你们会发现当你过了50岁，学一门新手艺会变得很难……这就是问题所在……
 
AugustVollmer Right Here United States 3 hours ago
No sense on marriage. Courts give her half when she decides to leave. Financial risk isn't worth it. MGTOW

 结婚没什么意义。如果她决定离开，法庭会把一半的家产判给她。光财务风险就不值得结婚。直男至上，女人滚远。
 
justsomedude yabbadabbadoo Germany 1 hour ago
Meh been through a divorce and the ex received nothing. Had a good attorney. She went for the guard dog and I went for a lamb.

 我离过婚，前任啥都没得到。找了个好律师。她想要一条看门狗，而我想要只温顺的绵羊。
 
Momof3girls La Habra Hts. Ca. United States 49 minutes ago
My sister pays her ex palimony. She is a cardiac O/R nurse with 20 years on the job. She makes 3 figures a year. he was a truck driver who barely made 40g a year. He has retired of his palimony. As more and more women start making good money more men will get palimony.

我姐姐给他前夫付赡养费。她是个心脏病护士，干了20年。她一年挣3位数的钱。他是个卡车司机，一年还没4万美元。他有自己的退休费。越来越多的女人开始拿高收入，越来越多的男人会拿赡养费。

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SixPackJack Punxsutawney United States 3 hours ago
More than half of any population lacks the aptitude to make a living as a software engineer robot programmer or other good paying high-tech job. Our economy needs to provide a wide spectrum of jobs suitable for people of all aptitude levels. Sadly the US economy has filled the ranks of lower skilled jobs with illegal immigrants and many high skilled jobs with low-paid H1B visa holders. American citizens and legal residents have been getting squeezed out from top to bottom for the past 20+ years. the globalist elites have fed us a myth that the US is a more advanced economy and needs to focus on the high tech end of the spectrum. It is simply untrue.

 超过半数的人缺少成为软件工程师、机器人程序员或其他高薪酬高技术人才的天资。我们的经济需要为人民提供广泛范围的工作以适合所有天资水平的人群。不幸的是，美国经济里头，低技术工作满是非法移民，高技术工作满是持H1B签证的低收入人群。在过去的二十多年里，美国公民和合法居民已经从顶端被挤到最底端。全球化的精英们给我们描绘了一个美妙的神话：美国是个更先进的经济体，需要集中精力于高科技的就业领域。这简直不真实。
 
Witzelsucht Los Angeles United States 3 hours ago
Globalism serves the wealthy as a tacit scheme to return Americans and the world to a 17th Century economic model with a few very wealthy lording it over the masses of poor beneath a small middle class. Hopefully as Karl Marx indicated a revolt of the masses will follow but the globalists will use political correctness as a weapon against this revolution.

全球化服务于富人，这是个心照不宣的计划，就是为了让美国和世界回到17世纪的经济模式：少数非常富有的人奴役大部分处于一小撮中产阶级之下的广大劳苦大众。但愿像马克思指明的那样，劳动人民的反抗会随之而来。但全球化的精英们会用政治正确作为武器来对抗这场革命。

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chris Haboob Alley United States 3 hours ago
Maybe true. People who work manufacturing jobs get used to a regimented lifestyle that marriage works well with it seems. I am a self-employed professional and the idea has not appealed that much to me as it seems it wouldn't add to my life as opposed to costing me more in terms of time and money with benefits that seem readily available. I can cook fairly well myself but meals and home services can be easily purchased; situational impermanent companionship seems sufficient if you know nothing else and freedom of schedule seems the highest priority to me. Still I came from a large family with my parents till together so I don't see anything wrong with that lifestyle so where I disagree with the cause of this is more men's realization that marriage and having kids today is a hazard-filled obligation due to family law in the US. You take on great personal liability to be married as a man in the western world. The juice rarely seems to be worth the squeeze.

可能是真的吧。搞制造业的人通常生活方式比较严谨，婚姻状况似乎也比较好。我是个个体户，结婚对我来说没太大的吸引力，因为这似乎不会给我的生活增加什么。相反结婚还会消耗我更多的时间和金钱。我自己做菜很棒，但是餐饮和家政服务现在很容易就可以买到；不求天长地久，曾经拥有就够了，对我来说生活的自由才是最重要的。我来自一个大家庭，父母依然在一起，我没看到那种生活方式有任何不对。我不赞同文章观点的原因是如今更多的男人们意识到，在美国由于家庭法的存在结婚生子需要承担充满风险的义务。在西方世界，一个男人结婚要承担很大的个人责任。基本没必要结婚。

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Ben Ghazi69 Las Vegas United States 4 hours ago
Robot have replaced Rednecks in manufacturing those $25 jobs are not returning.

 在制造业里，机器人替代了乡下人，那些25美元的工作再也不会回来了。
 
Ben Ghazi69 Las Vegas United States 3 hours ago
No worries there will be plenty of crop gathering and grass cutting jobs available. or dish washing for those who prefer the indoors.

 别担心。大把的收庄稼、割草的工作可以找到。或者去洗盘子，如果你偏爱室内工作的话。
 
Lone263 Leduc Canada 2 hours ago
SNUB lot of out of work white collars to that AI can replace!

 人工智能能代替大批失业的白领。
 
charles007 Chicago United States 4 hours ago
Dead weight is hard to carry when you are flat broke.

当你破产时，负担完全承受不起。

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Rural deplorable
Lost of factors play into the decline . First is the ongoing disinformation campaign during commercials. Every man in any commercial is shown as a dunce selfish and unable to accomplish anything . Another reason is you are depicted as a second class citizen if you work in .construction trades. Even though you can make 150000 year. Last as long as the cougars keep trolling The the bars the young men will take the easy route for sex

（lost可能是lots笔误。)很多因素导致了这种（结婚率）降低。首先是商业化的电视和广播里总是散播虚假的信息。任何广告里，男人都被描绘成低能自私的啥都干不成的人。另一个原因就是，如果你是干建筑这行的，你就会被描绘成一个二等公民，即使你的年收入有150，000。最后，只要那些熟女们继续在酒吧里游荡，年轻男子就想通过这种容易的法子和他们干炮。

britishrepublican
The West needs to wake up to the damage China is doing to our lives in so many ways. Governments should lead a boycott of Chinese goods. There's plenty of other countries can make products for us. We need to spread the load out over several countries so we do strengthen any country too much. Vietnam Cambodia and Laos can all produce goods very cheaply and none will turn and bite the hand that feeds them the way China does.

西方应该意识到，中国正在从太多的方面损害我们的生活。政府应该领导一个针对中国商品的联合抵制。还有很多的国家可以为我们生产商品。我们要把负担扩大到好几个国家，（按语意疑少个not）这样我们就不会使哪个国家增强太多。越南、柬埔寨和老挝都能够生产非常廉价的商品，而且他们不会像中国那样忘恩负义，反咬你一口。

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Yoyo66
How can you be a man if you can't raise up your family with the things that they need. You are broken inside if you can't

一个男人如果不能养家，不配称为男人。如果你做不到你会崩溃的。

Lil Ole Betta Fish
No money no honey no baby. I summarized this entire stupid article in one sentence.

没票子没妻子没孩子。我用一句话总结了这篇愚蠢透顶的文章。

Pedestrian
Blame anyone and anything but ourself

怪天怪地就是不怪自己。

udo4get
President Trump says he will stop the cheap import of goods from Countries who use cheap { slave } labour who have zero respect for human life by heavily taxing the owners of these sweatshops taking away the unfair advantage they have over decent American manufacturers. Yet still a lot of you are not behind him?.

特朗普总统说他将停止从那些无视人命、使用廉价劳动力（奴隶）的国家过来的廉价进口商品；对那些血汗工厂的业主课以重税；剥夺针对正派美国厂商的那些不公平优势。即使这样，还有很多你们这样的人不支持他？

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beachbrit -> udo4get
Explain how you replace the manufacturing infrastructure to enable production of just about anything from furniture to textiles to steel - the trained staff you once had is now working in customer service. The technology has moved on if you're going to build a new plant to make just about anything it would be staffed by robots not warm bodies. You can't reopen a mine at the drop of a hat.

解释一下，你们怎么替代那些制造业基础设施来生产从家具到纺织品到钢铁制品等随便什么东西。你们那些曾经培训好的员工如今都在干客服。技术早就进步了，如果你要开个新工厂，不论制作什么，雇佣的都会是机器人而不是活生生的人。现状很难立刻改变。

krackin -> udo4get
We have a few major industries that are second to none. Pay attention do a little DD and do try to keep up.

我们有一些主要工业是首屈一指的。集中精力搞一下（译者：DD是什么？），努力保持住。

The.gnostic
You don't say Brian......!! I wrote about the perils of losing blue collar jobs 25 years ago and predicted all this. How can you marry and have kids with no job and no prospects??

你别说了Brian……！！25年前我就写了失去蓝领工作的风险，预言了这一切。没工作没前途怎么能结婚生孩子？？

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futura03
Trump likes Alibaba founder Jack Ma.

特朗普喜欢阿里巴巴的创始人马云。

uncle ruckus
The ravages of NAFTA. Non existent or low paying minimum wage part time jobs if you are lucky to find one. Thank Bill Clinton.

北美自由贸易协定带来的恶果。根本没有工作或者只有低薪的最低工资标准的兼职，如果你走运能找到一个的话。谢谢比尔.克林顿。

Tiseye
Is the Administration now importing chinese women to fill this need?

现在政府要进口中国女人来满足这种需求嘛？

Marko
Makes a change from blaming Russia ......what ever next to blame others for things that do not go right .

现在不再让俄罗斯背锅了……反正一有问题都是别人的错。