崛起的龙：中国碳市场揭露澳大利亚的能源瘫痪 [英国媒体]

The Chinese national flag flames in front of a building barely visible due to heavy smog in Beijing. AAP

鲜红的中国国旗立在由于北京严重的雾霾污染而几乎看不清的建筑前面。AA

When China’s national carbon market is launched later this year it will be the world’s second-largest carbon market, after the European emissions trading scheme (ETS), which it will eventually overtake.

在今年晚些时候中国的全国碳市场推出后，它将成为世界第二大碳市场，排在欧盟排放交易体系（ETS）之后，并且它将最终超越后者。

In sharp contrast, the absence of an explicit carbon price in Australia and persistent turbulence and confusion around domestic energy policy are hindering investment in renewable energy, leaving Australia lagging behind global trends in cutting emissions.

与此形成鲜明对比的是，澳大利亚缺乏明确的碳价格，国内能源政策的持续动荡和混乱阻碍了可再生能源的投资，这使得澳大利亚在减排上落后于全球趋势。

China will add to the cluster of national and sub-national emissions trading schemes that now exist in the European Union, Canada, the United States, Japan, South Korea and New Zealand.

中国将加入欧盟，加拿大，美国，日本，韩国和新西兰等现有国家和地区的排放交易体系。

As the World Bank Group’s 2016 report on the state and trends in carbon pricing indicated, up to a quarter of global emissions will then be covered by carbon pricing initiatives across some 40 national jurisdictions and 20 cities, states and regions. The evolution of regional carbon markets fostered by the Paris Agreement, in North Asia and elsewhere, will economically advantage those able to participate.

世界银行集团2016年关于碳定价状况和趋势的报告显示，40个国家和20个城市、州和地区的碳定价举措将覆盖全球约四分之一的排放量。 “巴黎协定”在北亚和其他地方促进的区域碳市场的演变，将在经济上有利于那些参与者。

For a brief time Australia flirted with being a global leader in carbon pricing and emissions trading. The Keating Labor Government debated - and rejected - a national carbon price in 1995. In 2009 the Rudd Labor government proposed laws to establish a national emissions trading scheme, the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, which then failed in the Senate.

澳大利亚曾短暂地作为碳定价和排放交易的全球领导者。基廷工党政府在1995年辩论并拒绝了国家碳价格。在2009年，陆克文工党政府提出了建立全国排放交易计划的法律，即碳减排计划，该计划随后在参议院遭到失败。

Instead, Australia became the first country in the world to dismantle a national carbon price, when Tony Abbott axed Gillard Labor’s carbon tax. Now Australia is in danger of becoming an outlier globally - and this will have significant economic costs as well as environmental implications.

取而代之的是，当时托尼·阿博特削减了吉拉德工党的碳税，澳大利亚成为世界上第一个取消国家碳价格的国家。现在澳大利亚正面临着在全球范围内成为一个局外人的危险 - 这将会带来重大经济损失和环境影响。

China’s climate leadership

中国的气候领导

When China became the world’s largest national greenhouse gas emitter in 2006, its involvement in any effective global emissions reduction agreement became an unavoidable responsibility.

2006年中国成为世界上最大的全国温室气体排放国后，它参与任何有效的全球减排协议都成为了不可避免的责任。

China first acknowledged this internationally in 2009 when, at the climate negotiations in Copenhagen, it announced voluntary measures to improve national energy efficiency, pledging to cut its carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2020.

在2009年，中国首次在国际上承认了这一点，并在哥本哈根气候谈判中，宣布了提高国家能源效率的自发措施，承诺到2020年将单位国内生产总值的二氧化碳排放量在2005年的基础上减少40-45％。

In 2014, China and the United States jointly announced their national targets and goals as a means of providing momentum for the following year’s Paris summit. China committed to an energy intensity target for 2030, lowering carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 60-65% below 2005 levels, and also to peak its emissions before 2030.

2014年，中国和美国共同宣布了各自的国家目标，为下一届巴黎峰会提供了动力。中国致力于实现2030年的能源强度目标，将单位国内生产总值的二氧化碳排放量在2005年的基础上减少60-65％，并在2030年之前达到峰值。

Indeed it appears already to have achieved this goal as a result of industrial modernisation and slowing economic growth, along with a push to reduce its reliance on coal and its global leadership in building renewable energy capacity (specifically, solar and wind).

事实上，由于工业现代化和经济增长放缓，以及推动减少对煤炭的依赖和全球领先的可再生能源（特别是太阳能和风能）领域，中国似乎已经实现了这一目标。

Then, a decade after the launch of the European ETS, during a second7 joint announcement with the United States in September 2015, President Xi Jinping declared that China would establish a national carbon market by 2017.

在欧洲排放交易体系推出十年之后，2015年9月，中国与美国的第二次联合声明中宣布，中国将在2017年前建立一个全国性的碳市场。

China’s national ETS

中国国家碳排放交易体系

Seven pilot emissions trading schemes have operated in China since 2013. These subnational projects - in five cities and two provinces, including Beijing, Chonqing, Guandong, Hubei, Shanghai, Shenzen and Tianjin – together already cover some 26.7% of China’s GDP in 2014.

自2013年以来，中国已有7个排放交易体系试点在运行。这些地区级的项目—位于北京，重庆，广东，湖北，上海，深圳，天津这五个城市和省两个省份中，占2014年中国国内生产总值的26.7％。

They have employed slightly different market designs, varying the range of greenhouse gases and industry sectors covered, slightly different approaches to permit allocation, verification and compliance, and produced seven different carbon prices, at times ranging from some A$2.50 to up to A$22 per tonne.

他们采用了略有不同的市场设计，改变了温室气体和行业部门的范围，并采用不同的方法来允许分配，验证和遵守，并产生七种不同的碳价格，从每吨2.50澳元到高达22澳元不等。

The new national market represents a further step in the process of policy learning and systematic development, based on these experimental steps as well as the experience of the European ETS, which has evolved in several phases since 2005.

新的全国市场是在这些试验步骤和欧洲ETS的经验基础上，在政策学习和系统发展的过程中迈出的又一步。自2005年以来，欧洲ETS已经经历了几个阶段的发展。

During its trial phase, from 2017 to 2019, policy makers will work to help new participants become familiar with the new national market and to improve its design. The market initially will be restricted in scope and size. It first will only include carbon dioxide and, like its pilots, its initial carbon price likely will be modest.

在2017年至2019年的试运行阶段，政策制定者将致力于帮助新参与者熟悉新的国家市场，并改善其设计。市场最初的范围和规模将会受到限制。首先它只包括二氧化碳，像其试行项目一样，它初始碳价格可能会较低。

Guidelines from the National Development and Reform Commission indicate it will cover eight major industry sectors, such as power generation, petrochemicals, construction materials, pulp and paper, aviation, and iron, steel and aluminium production.

国家发展和改革委员会的指导方针指出，它将覆盖发电，石油化工，建筑材料，纸浆和造纸，航空，铁，钢，铝生产等八大产业。

Nevertheless it is expected to cover some 40-50% of total Chinese emissions and eventually become a significant contributor to the suite of measures now being used to tackle Chinese emissions. Full implementation is expected to occur from 2020 onwards - with greater industry coverage, an increased percentage of allowances allocated by auction, and improved benchmarking.

尽管如此，预计它将占中国总排放量的40%到50%，并最终成为目前用于解决中国排放的一系列措施的重要贡献者。预计将从2020年起全面实施——扩大产业覆盖范围，增加拍卖补贴的比例，并提高基准。

A new measure among many

诸多措施中新的一种

The new national carbon market is an additional response to the pressures that have driven Chinese climate and energy policy reforms over the past decade.

新的全国碳市场是对过去十年来推动中国气候与能源政策改革压力的又一回应。

Domestically, a complex basket of tools are already in use to increase energy efficiency and reduce emissions. Coal-fired power generation has faced increasingly stringent regulation and new investment to counter dangerously high levels of air pollution in major cities, growing health problems and associated social unrest.

在国内，一套用于提高能源效率和减少排放的工具已经在使用。燃煤发电方面面临着日益严峻的调控和新的投资，以应对大城市高危的空气污染，日益严重的健康问题和有关的社会动荡问题。

China’s heavy industries - economically sluggish, energy-inefficient and emissions-intensive - are under intensifying regulatory and now market pressure to modernise rapidly. While the carbon prices under the sub-national pilots have remained modest, they have added to this pressure for technological and economic reform.

中国的重工业 - 经济低迷，能源效率低，排放密集型 - 在加强监管和现今的市场压力之下，迅速现代化。尽管地区级试点的碳排放价格一直保持温和，但是技术改革和经济改革压力在加大。

National energy security is a strategic concern given China’s economic reliance on energy imports. The threats from global warming to China’s food and water security are recognised as concerns at the highest levels of government, including through the 13th Five-Year Plan.

鉴于中国对能源进口的经济依赖，国家能源安全成为一个战略问题。全球变暖对中国食品和水安全的威胁被认为是政府最高级别的关注，并列入第十三个五年计划中。

China’s climate and energy policies also offer China an opportunity to demonstrate global leadership in climate policy, with the election of US President Donald Trump creating new diplomatic possibilities, a point emphasised in President Xi Jinping’s opening speech to the 19th Communist Party Congress, where he noted that China had taken a “driving seat in international cooperation to respond to climate change”.

中国的气候与能源政策也为中国提供了机会展示其在气候政策上的全球领导地位，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普的选举创造了新的外交可能性，中国也强调的一点。他指出，中国“在应对气候变化的国际合作中占据主导地位”。

Implications for Australia

对澳大利亚的影响

A successful Chinese national emissions scheme has a range of impacts for Australia.

一个成功的中国国家排放计划对澳大利亚会产生一系列的影响。

About a quarter of Australia’s coal exports (by volume) currently go to China, which in 2016 was Australia’s second biggest market for thermal coal and third biggest market for metallurgical coal.

澳大利亚大约四分之一的煤炭出口（按量计）目前都流向中国，2016年，中国是澳大利亚第二大热煤市场，也是冶金煤的第三大市场。

If a national carbon market accelerates improvements in energy efficiency in China’s metals and power generation sectors, its demand for Australian coal exports – already beginning to contract - is likely to fall faster.

如果全国碳排放市场加速了中国金属和发电行业能效的提高，那么它对澳大利亚煤炭出口 - 已经开始收缩 - 的需求可能会下降得更快。

Second, for a quarter of a century, a succession of conservative Australian Prime Ministers justified the absence of a meaningful Australian climate policy by claiming there was no point in reducing emissions here because China wasn’t doing enough to tackle the problem.

其次，过去25年以来，一连串保守的澳大利亚总理证明了缺乏有意义的澳大利亚气候政策，他们只会声称减少排放没有任何意义，因为中国在解决这一问题上做得不够。

Based on misrepresentations of what was happening in China, the Howard government delayed and then the Abbott government destroyed an Australian carbon pricing mechanism. Both leaders consistently stalled Australian climate policy, and continued to spruik the mirage of a national energy future based on exporting coal to ever larger overseas markets, including in China.

基于对中国正在发生的事情的歪曲，先是霍华德政府推迟，然后艾伯特政府摧毁了澳大利亚的碳定价机制。两个领导人一直都在拖延澳大利亚的气候政策，并继续以把煤炭出口到更大的海外市场(包括中国)来制造国家能源未来的海市蜃楼。

In all, the turbulent unpredictability of Australia’s climate politics and policies stands in contrast to China’s steady institutional commitment to accelerating decarbonisation. Given its present weak climate policy settings and institutions, and without a clear target for renewables, Australia will struggle to meet its current emission reduction commitments and will face increased future costs for failing to act sooner.

总而言之，澳大利亚气候政治和政策的动荡不可预测性与中国加速脱碳化的稳定体制承诺形成了鲜明的对比。鉴于目前薄弱的气候政策设置和机构，以及没有明确的可再生能源目标，澳大利亚将难以满足其目前的减排承诺，并将面临因未能尽早采取行动而增加的未来成本。


Rob Morgan
I suspect that the Chinese may be able to swing their energy economy around surprisingly quickly - visiting Beijing a couple of years back, I was struck by the number of motor scooters on the streets - and more so by the complete silence when they all pulled away from the traffic lights - they were all electric, presumably a result of a tax or ruling, enforced to ameliorate Beijing’s dreadful pollution levels.
They certainly have a long way to go, but a perverse aspect of their one-party government is an extraordinary level of control on the levers of policy and its implementation.  Interesting to see how this develops.

我怀疑中国人可以以惊人的速度扭转他们的能源经济 - 几年前我去访问北京，我震惊于街道上摩托车的数量。当它们全部都驶离交通信号灯时我更加惊讶以至于完全沉默了 - 它们都是电动的，大概因为税收或管制的结果，被强制用以改善北京可怕的污染。
他们肯定还有很长的路要走，但是一党政府的一个不利因素就是对政策杠杆及其实施的一种非同寻常的控制。我很有兴趣看看它将如何发展。

7 days ago
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Mike Hansen Mike Hansen is a Friend of The Conversation
There is still a vast of amount of coal in China’s energy system and too many coal plants are still being built around the world but if you have heard the claim from coal boosting climate “skeptics” or Murdoch shock jocks that “621 coal plants are being built globally”, it is not true. The 621 number initially referred to coal “units” (Hazelwood had 8) but that data is now redundant following more project cancellations in China.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2017/oct/16/world-going-slow-coal-misinformation-distorting-facts
The 621 units figure came from the Global Coal Plant Tracker database run by US-based anti-coal organisation CoalSwarm.
They have a more up to date analysis here which shows coal closing in Europe and North America but despite low capacity factors and forced closures, still being proposed for Asia indicating that the campaign to end coal burning still has a long way to run.
http://www.climatechangenews.com/2017/10/18/one-seven-coal-power-plant-owners-heading-exit/

中国的能源系统仍然有大量的煤炭，世界各地还有很多的煤电厂正在建设，但是如果你从煤炭推动气候“怀疑论者”或默多克冲击的声明中听到如“621家煤电厂正在全球建立”，那这是不真的。 621这个数字最初被称为煤炭“单位”（榛木有8），但是随着中国诸多项目取消之后，这些数据现在是多余的。
621单位数字来自美国反煤组织CoalSwarm运行的全球煤矿跟踪数据库。
他们进行了更新的分析，显示了欧洲和北美的无煤炭现象，尽管有产能低的因素和被迫关闭，但在亚洲仍在被倡议使用，这暗示着停止燃煤的运动还有很长的路要走。

7 days ago
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Garry Baker
As for China’s climate leadership ……….
Read this ….Xi Jinping to China: “Any harm we inflict on nature will eventually return to haunt us”
https://qz.com/1105119/watch-what-xi-jinpings-19th-chinese-communist-party-congress-work-report-said-on-climate-change/

至于中国的气候领导.........
看看这个... .XI到中国：“我们对自然造成的任何伤害最终都会伤及自身”

7 days ago
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John Newlands John Newlands is a Friend of The Conversation
China reserves the right to increase absolute emissions until 2030 and a shift from manufacturing to services will increase the ratio of GDP to emissions without making any cuts.  Trading schemes around the world have disappointed; for example the EU spot price is 4.98 per tCO2 which doesn’t spur action.
Strangely China has been selling offsets to the EU perhaps they’ll use their own in future or creatively account for more.  Check out the low emissions of Scandinavian countries
https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=false&solar=false®ion=europe&page=map
The winners appear to be those countries with the most hydro and nuclear and it is hard to see other countries like China catching up.

中国将保留在2030年之前增加的绝对排放的权利，从制造业到服务业的转变将会增加GDP与排放量的比例，而不会做出任何削减。世界各地的交易计划都让人失望;例如欧盟排放价格是每吨二氧化碳4.98欧元，根本不起刺激作用。
奇怪的是，中国一直在向欧盟出售补偿，或许他们将来会用自己的，或创造性地占用更多。看看北欧国家的低排放量
https://www.electricitymap.org/?wind=false&solar=false®ion=europe&page=map
获胜者似乎是那些拥有最多水电和核能的国家，很难看到其他国家像中国一样迎头赶上。

7 days ago
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Mike Hansen Mike Hansen is a Friend of The Conversation
In reply to John Newlands
Meanwhile back in the real world where China’s actual agreement was to peak emissions by 2030 and earlier if possible and what they need to do to meet that commitment:agreed to was spelt out at the time by the White House
…it will require China to deploy an additional 800-1000 gigawatts of nuclear, wind, solar and other zero-emission generation capacity by 2030 – more than all the coal-fired power plants that exist in China today and close to total current electricity generation capacity in the United States.
All the data indicates that they have already peaked emissions.
After strong growth since the early 2000s, emissions in China have levelled off and may even be declining.
That could of course turn around if the economy started growing rapidly so there is still reason for concern but misinforming about the actual agreement does not help the discussion.
https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-stalled-global-carbon-budget-2016-68568

与此同时，在现实世界中，中国实际达成的协议是在2030年之前达到峰值，如果可能的话更早，以及他们需要做些什么来满足这一承诺:同意当时白宫阐明的观点
...将要求中国到2030年再增加800-1000千瓦的核能，风能，太阳能和其他零排放发电能，这将超过目前在中国存在的所有燃煤电厂，接近目前美国总发电能力。
所有的数据都表明它们已经达到了峰值。
自本世纪初以来的强劲增长之后，中国的排放量已趋于平稳，甚至可能在下降。
如果经济开始迅速增长，那当然就会好转，因此仍有理由担心，但有关实际协议的错误信息无助于讨论。
https://theconversation.com/fossil-fuel-emissions-have-stalled-global-carbon-budget-2016-68568

6 days ago
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David Johnson
logged in via Google
China has tripled their per capita emissions in the last 20 years and now emits more per capita than the EU, which has steadily reduced per capita emissions. It’s absolutely got me beat why people hold them up as some kind of example in emissions reduction which we should be following.

过去20年，中国人均排放量翻了三倍，现在人均排放量比欧盟还多，后者的人均排放量一直在稳步下降。这绝对让我理解为什么人们把欧盟作为我们应该学习的减排的例子。