#贸易战# 中美贸易战：仔细看——特朗普没有弹药 [联合国媒体]

CHINA-US TRADE WAR: LOOK CLOSELY – TRUMP HAS ZERO AMMO

中美贸易战: 仔细看——特朗普没有弹药

简介部分：
昨天中国就美国 232 措施向WTO发起起诉，华盛顿的中美研究学院的高级研究员索拉布·古普塔发文称，美国政府没有法律途径站出来指责中国的不公平贸易做法。

* 美国似乎无法解释中国的技术转让政策和做法为何或如何构成违反其国际条约义务的法律行为, 尤其是对世贸组织与贸易有关的知识产权方面的相关承诺。
* 如果真存在重大法律缺陷, 美国贸易代表办公室就不会羞于对中国提起 WTO 诉讼, 就像它在其它贸易法领域对中国进行了大约20次的审判一样，但美国从未这样做过。
* 国际贸易体系处于自大萧条以来最严重的贸易争端的悬崖边缘, 但实际上中国几乎没有犯下任何违法行为。

Aside from a few technicalities, Washington doesn’t have a legal leg to stand on to accuse Beijing of unfair trade practices, and most in the know – meaning not the US president – are well aware of that fact

除了一些技术细节之外, 美国政府没有法律途径站出来指责中国的不公平贸易做法, 而且大多数知情人士——除了美国总统——都清楚地意识到了这一事实。

SOURABH GUPTA
6 APR 2018

作者: 索拉布·古普塔
二零一八年四月六日

The United States has never been at a loss of words to criticise China’s intellectual property rights (IPR) policies and practices. But there’s very good reason why that rhetoric has never been translated into trade action – before Donald Trump came along, that is.

批评中国的知识产权政策和做法，美国从未少说， 但在唐纳德特朗普出现之前, 这种言论从未转化为贸易行动, 这是有充分理由的。

In a sharply worded investigative report issued on March 22 under Section 301 of its domestic trade law, the office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) criticised China’s intellectual property and technology transfer policies on four counts. 

美国贸易代表办公室(USTR)在3月22日根据其国内贸易法第301条发表的一份措辞严厉的调查报告中, 批评了中国的知识产权和技术转让政策。

First, it contended China uses foreign ownership restrictions, such as joint venture requirements and foreign equity limitations, and various administrative review and licensing processes, to force technology transfers from US companies. 

首先, 它指责中国利用外资所有权限制, 比如合资企业的要求和外国股权的限制, 以及各种行政审查和许可程序, 以迫使美国公司进行技术转让。

Second, China’s regime of technology regulations forces US companies seeking to license technologies to Chinese entities to do so on non-market-based terms that favour Chinese recipients. 

其次, 中国的技术监管体制迫使那些寻求向中国企业授权技术的美国公司, 以偏袒中国受益者的非市场化条款向中国企业发放技术许可证。

Third, China directs and unfairly facilitates the systematic investment in, and acquisition of, US companies and assets by Chinese companies to obtain cutting-edge technologies and intellectual property and generate the transfer of technology to Chinese companies. 

第三, 中国指导并不公平地促进中国企业对美国企业和资产的系统投资和收购, 以获得尖端技术和知识产权, 并促进向中国企业转让技术。


  
Visitors look at aircraft component parts on display at Aviation Expo China in Beijing. Photo: AP

在北京的中国航空展览会上, 游客们正在观看飞机零部件展示。 图片来源: AP

And fourth, China conducts and supports unauthorised intrusions into, and theft from, the computer networks of US companies to access sensitive commercial information and trade secrets.

第四, 中国支持并进行未经授权侵入和窃取美国公司的计算机网络, 以获取敏感的商业信息和商业机密。

On the basis of these findings, the Trump administration has proposed imposing an additional 25 per cent duty on about 1,300 tariff lines of Chinese goods, estimated to be worth US$50 billion. If ultimately imposed, the measure would amount to the most significant regressive action taken by a country against a major trade partner since the Smoot-Hawley impositions of the early 1930s.

根据这些调查结果, 特朗普政府提议对大约1300个中国商品关税细目增加25% 的关税, 估计价值500亿美元。 如果最终实施, 这项措施将相当于一个国家自1930年代初的斯穆特-霍利模式以来对主要贸易伙伴采取的最重大倒退行动。

Curiously, however, the US seems to be at a loss to explain why or how China’s technology transfer policies and practices amount to a legal violation of its international treaty obligations, notably of its related commitments to the WTO Trips (Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights). At a WTO Dispute Settlement Body (DSB) meeting in Geneva barely five days after issuing the Section 301 report, the US representative let it be quietly known that on the first, third and fourth counts, China’s practices involving technology or intellectual property transfer did not implicate any specific WTO TRIPS-related obligation. In other words, China’s policies and practices were entirely compliant with its international treaty commitments.

然而, 令人奇怪的是, 美国似乎无法解释中国的技术转让政策和做法为何或如何构成违反其国际条约义务的法律行为, 尤其是对世贸组织与贸易有关的知识产权方面的相关承诺。 在日内瓦举行的世贸组织争端解决机构(DSB)会议上, 美国代表在发表301条款报告后仅仅5天, 美国代表知晓, 中国在技术或知识产权转让方面的做法没有涉及世贸组织与《与贸易有关的知识产权协定》有关的具体义务。 换句话说, 中国的政策和做法完全符合其国际条约承诺。


  
Donald Trump’s administration is poised to impose 25 per cent tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese exports. Photo: Bloomberg

唐纳德 特朗普(Donald Trump)政府准备对中国500亿美元的出口产品征收25% 的关税。 图片来源: 彭博社

Only on count two, that China forces US companies to part with their intellectual property on non-market terms, did the US representative come around to enumerating a set of Chinese policies that could amount to violations of Beijing’s TRIPS undertakings. But even on this, the complaints centre on adverse compensation terms for foreigners to enforce patent rights following the ending of a technology transfer contract – a far cry from the impression created that Chinese party and corporate henchmen shake down their foreign counterparts’ intellectual property for a pittance.

只有在第二项指标上, 中国迫使美国企业在非市场条件下放弃自己的知识产权, 美国代表才列举了一系列中国政策, 这些政策可能相当于违反中国政府的《与贸易有关的知识产权协议》(TRIPS)。 但即便如此, 在一项技术转让合同终止后, 投诉的焦点仍然是外国人在技术转让合同终止后, 要求外国人强制执行专利权的不利赔偿条款——这与中国共产党和企业追随者为了微薄的收入而拒绝外国同行的知识产权的印象相去甚远。

The US takes recourse to the broad claim that China’s intellectual property policies are overall deeply trade-distorting. It is clear from the US narration, however, that China has broadly aligned its legal system with TRIPS, although further improvements may still be necessary.

美国求助于广泛的主张，即中国的知识产权政策总体上严重扭曲贸易， 然而, 从美国的叙述中可以清楚地看到, 中国已经广泛地将其法律体系与 TRIPS 结合起来, 尽管还需要进一步改进。

For as long as one can remember, USTR has annually released a “Special 301” report on global intellectual property rights practices, naming and shaming countries along the way. China’s practices have been scanned in great detail over the years. If there were significant legal shortcomings, USTR would not have been shy to slap a WTO case against China, just as it has done in other areas of trade law against Beijing on about 20 occasions. The US has never done because it has never had a durable case.

只要人们还记得, 美国贸易代表办公室每年都发布一份关于全球知识产权实践的"301特别报告", 在此过程中点名羞辱一些国家，这些年来, 中国的做法已经被非常详细地指责过了， 如果真存在重大法律缺陷, 美国贸易代表办公室就不会羞于对中国提起 WTO 诉讼, 就像它在其它贸易法领域对中国进行了大约20次诉讼一样，但美国从未这样做过, 因为它从未有过一个持久的案例。


 
Soybeans are loaded onto a truck at a port in Nantong, China. China unveiled plans to hit major US exports, such as soybeans, cars and small aircraft, with $50 billion in retaliatory tariffs. Photo: AFP

在南通的一个港口, 大豆被装上卡车。 中国公布了打击美国主要出口产品的计划, 如大豆、汽车和小型飞机, 以及500亿美元的报复性关税。 图片来源: AFP

The Trump administration is poised to impose 25 per cent tariffs on US$50 billion of Chinese exports on the basis of the latter’s abusive IPR practices – except that the US cannot show that aside from a few narrow regulations that any of these practices are illegal. So the international trading system stands at the cliff’s edge of the most significant trade quarrel since the Great Depression even though practically no illegality has been committed by the supposedly offending party. 

特朗普政府准备对中国500亿美元的出口产品征收25% 的关税——除非美国不能证明, 除了一些狭隘的规定, 这些做法中的任何一种都是非法的。 因此, 国际贸易体系处于自大萧条以来最严重的贸易争端的悬崖边缘, 但实际上中国几乎没有犯下任何违法行为。

The USTR’s own 2018 Trade Policy Agenda Report argues that the US is bound by its treaty rights and obligation to which it has signed up at the WTO – no more than that. Additional rights or obligations cannot be added to these existing rights and obligations and “any such system must not force Americans to live under new obligations to which the United States and its elected officials never agreed”, it crisply notes. 

美国贸易代表办公室自己的2018年《贸易政策议程报告》(Trade Policy Agenda Report)认为, 美国受到其在 WTO 签署的条约权利和义务的约束——仅此而已。它明确指出，在这些现有权利和义务之外, 不能增加其他权利或义务,"任何此类制度都不能强迫美国人生活在美国及其民选官员从未同意的新义务之下"。

Likewise, China’s IPR policies and practices, too, cannot be chained to any additional rights or obligations beyond the TRIPS agreement. What is sauce for the goose must be sauce for the gander. As for these TRIPS-related obligations, China is doing fine – that is the US official view, not just China’s. 

同样, 中国的知识产权政策和做法也不能与 TRIPS 协议之外的任何额外权利或义务捆绑在一起，至于这些与《与贸易有关的知识产权协议》相关的义务, 中国做得很好——这是美国官方的看法，而不仅仅是中国的看法。

作者简介：
Sourabh Gupta is a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington

索拉布·古普塔是位于华盛顿的中美研究学院的高级研究员


ginnywai@******
14 hours 29 min ago
Trump does have plenty of ammo, hot air from his mouth and when he eats those extra soybeans, hot air from his behind also. This should scare people away.

特朗普的确有足够的弹药，嘴里喷出热气，当他吃下多余的大豆时，背后也会冒出热气，这会把人吓跑的。

johnmars888888@******
16 hours 38 min ago
The article misses an important point on what exactly is behind Trump's actions. The US wants to put a stop on the Chinese economic growth and thus stops its influence in Asia. The rest of the Trump rhetoric is BS. The companies coming to China already know what they sign up for. It is only unfair in my opinion if they have to form a joint venture after they establish their business in China.

这篇文章忽略了一个重要的观点，即特朗普的行动背后到底是什么。美国希望阻止中国的经济增长，从而阻止其在亚洲影响力的扩张，特朗普的其余言论都是胡说八道，来中国的公司知道他们签约的目的是什么，在我看来，唯一一点不公平的是，如果他们来中国做生意，必须成立一家合资企业，这是不公平的。

Kin Lee2
16 hours 2 min ago
America in fact is losing steam and afraid of China's rising, Trump and the gang BS about stealing and unfair practice more like self incrimination. America is afraid of China 2025, if it cannot compete for the future, it will use bully tactic, you can throw the goodness of western democracy to the garbage can, because western'democratic' country like America is pure garbage.

事实上，美国正在失去动力，害怕中国的崛起，特朗普和他发表的胡言乱语不是对盗窃和不公平行为的指责更像是自证其罪，美国害怕中国2025，如果它无法在未来而竞争，它会使用欺凌战术，你可以把西方民主的好处扔到垃圾桶里了，因为像美国这样的西方“民主”国家纯粹是垃圾。

Kin Lee2
16 hours 9 min ago
America uses domestic laws to impose tariff on foreign countries, rather than thru WTO process, it knows it has no basis but engage in bullying, it will work for small countries of their size of economy, but for China, that won't work.
Western democracy is a sham, full of double standard and hypocrisy, they never respect international laws when not in their favorite, those complain China of stealing should use their dumb heads to think.

美国利用国内法对外国征收关税，而不是通过世贸组织的程序，它知道这是没有根据的，完全是恃强凌弱，这样做对经济规模小的国家有效，但对中国，这是行不通的。
西方的民主是虚假的，充满了双重标准和虚伪，他们从来不尊重国际法，当他们不喜欢的时候可以将之抛却一边，那些抱怨中国偷窃的人应该用他们愚蠢的头脑去思考。

Elial
14 hours 56 min ago
Good article. Exposes the bluff and bluster behind Trumps position.
好文章，暴露了特朗普身后的虚张声势。

Elial
16 hours 32 min ago
Trade follows established rules, set by the WTO and agreed to by all. The US is well known for reneging on its international commitments and treaties at will, and often at whim.

贸易遵循由世贸组织制定的既定规则，并得到所有人的同意。美国以违背其国际承诺和条约的意愿而着称，而且常常是一时兴起。

George Ohrwell
George Ohrwell
7 hours 47 min ago
No worry, it's chest-beating time: USA, USA, USA! After the midterm elections, then it's all over. Dirty old trick to get votes, at the expense of the poor workers, here and there :-(

别担心，现在是拍胸时间：USA, USA, USA! 中期选举之后一切都结束了，用肮脏的老伎俩争取选票，以牺牲穷人的利益为代价，这种老把戏无处不在的：---

cliff by the sea
10 hours 49 min ago
Gupta is right. What we read or hear from some news feeds are all "monkey see monkey do" type without doing their own due diligent fact check.
So sooner or later, they became "true facts" that are ingrained in reader's minds when in reality they are fake news/false claims.
Even today, Trump administration's Mnuchin, Kudlow, Lighthizer and others are still proclaiming this is not a trade war and they are in consultation with the Chinese when China came out publicly saying that they are not in discussion.

古普塔是对的。我们读到或听到的一些新闻源都是“猴子看到猴子做”型的，没有做自己应有的努力检查事实。
因此，它们迟早会成为“真实的事实”，在读者的头脑中根深蒂固，而实际上它们是虚假的新闻/虚假的声明。

my_2cents
7 hours 30 min ago
Trump got lots of ammo - fake news and tweets.

川普有很多弹药——假新闻、推特。

Kin Lee2
16 hours 9 min ago
That means western countries are nothing but low life, have no respect to international laws.

这意味着西方国家漏比的很，完全不尊重国际法。

Elial
16 hours 7 min ago
The EU and Japan follow the US blindly. They no longer act as independent self-respect nations. They are told what to do by Washington

欧盟和日本盲目追随美国，他们不再是独立自尊的国家，完全是华盛顿告诉他们该怎么做。

Richard Wang
15 hours 47 min ago
I don't know about the EU but certainly Japan is at the US beck and call. It's a US stooge; no insult intended, just a fact.

我不知道欧盟的情况，但日本肯定是听命于美国的，它是美国的傀儡，不是有意的侮辱，只是一个事实。

indianchief
15 hours 58 min ago
Us’s arrogance and disregard of WTO rules are acts of bullying.
The whole world must condemn this or WTO will lose its relevance.
The trade war will hurt us more than China. The might of us might just be gone forever after this. Us might not be able to support its massive expenses if its economy is to slow.
China on the other hand, after having many years of high growth, it may be a good time to take a breather to refocus, re-strategise for another more years of growth (w/o us).
I will bet my socks that us will back down. China is not prepare to discuss with us if it is not sincere.

美国的傲慢和对世贸组织规则的漠视是欺凌行为。
全世界都必须谴责这一行为，否则世贸组织将失去其权威性。
贸易战对我们的伤害将大于对中国的伤害，在这之后我们的力量可能就永远消失了，如果经济放缓，美国可能无法承担巨额开支。
另一方面，中国在经历了多年的高速增长之后，现在或许是一个好时机，可以休息一下，重新调整重心，重新制定战略，以实现更多年的增长。
我敢用我的袜子打赌，我们会让步的，如果中国没有诚意，它就不会准备与我们讨论。

Yippie
15 hours 53 min ago
Contracts have no meaning in China thus the issue of legality goes for a toss.The entire world knows how fair and how legal things are in China only the author seems to believe otherwise.

在中国，合同没有任何意义，合同在中国是没有意义的，所以合法性问题在中国是一个棘手的问题，整个世界都知道中国的法律到底有多公平和合法，只有作者似乎不这么认为。

ginnywai@******
14 hours 56 min ago
Contract does not have much meaning for trump either, this guy filed for bankruptcy FOUR times, remember.

对特朗普来说，合同也没有多大意义，记住了，他曾四次申请破产。

Richard Wang
15 hours 49 min ago
What do you know Yippie? Don't speak for the entire world. Given your previous postings your knowledge is very limited.

你知道什么，Yippie？不要为整个世界说话，鉴于你之前的帖子，我认为你的知识是非常有限的。

ghichi2000@******
15 hours 50 min ago
I hope best US and China brains sit around a table and don't stand up until they find a solution. Other routes are not viable.

我希望我们和中国的精英们围坐在一张桌子旁，在找到解决方案之前不要起身，其他路线是不可行的。

tradeart.dc@******
15 hours 45 min ago
look at iphone x vs xiaomi mi mix2. Apple can definitely sue xiaomi. Tim Cook and the board are gutless but only looking at china cash. If steve job still alive, he would have patent war with CHINA same as he did for SAMSUNG

对比一下IPhone X和小米Mix 2的，苹果绝对可以起诉小米，蒂姆库克(TimCook)和董事会没有胆量，但他们只盯着中国的现金，如果乔布斯还活着，他肯定会与中国展开专利战，就像他对三星所做的那样。

tradeart.dc@******
15 hours 40 min ago
Correction: Vivo V9, the design close to 90% match. It could be damaging to Apple’s sales definitely.

更正一下：是Vivo V9（不是小米Mix2），设计接近90%相同，这可能会对苹果的销售造成损害。

swami.vas
15 hours 43 min ago
Addressing the Moscow Conference on International Security 2018, on 5 April 2018, the Indian Defence Minister Mrs. Nirmala Seetharaman said: 'In the economic sphere, we need to guard against protectionism. Barriers to movement of skilled labor and the closing of borders are unlikely to address the issues involved. We also need to ensure that benefits of growth continue to flow to less affluent regions. We cannot achieve stability by devising new ways to perpetuate affluence and keeping parts of the world in relative deprivation. The role of Asia will be central in this process. For the near future, Asian economies will remain the drivers of global growth.'
What the Indian Defence Minister had said at the Moscow Conference is very much relevant to what is happening in the world economic arena as a result of the unilateral and senseless acts of the so-called superpower USA and contributing to a deadly trade war between USA and rest of the world!
This senseless act of USA could be the spark to ignite a prairie fire across the world and it could very much turn into a deadly spark to cause a major world clash akin to if not more dangerous and widespread than the Second World War in this technological era of the world!

印度国防部长NirmalaSeetharaman夫人于2018年4月5日在莫斯科2018国际安全会议上说：“在经济领域，我们需要警惕保护主义。阻碍熟练劳动力流动和关闭边界的措施不太可能解决所涉问题，我们还需要确保增长的好处继续流向较不富裕的地区，我们不能通过设计新的方法使富裕永久化和使世界部分地区处于相对贫困状态来实现稳定，亚洲将在这一进程中发挥中心作用，在不久的将来，亚洲经济体仍将是全球增长的驱动力。”

印度国防部长在莫斯科会议上所说的话与正在世界经济舞台发生的事情是非常相关的，由于所谓超级大国美国的单方面和毫无意义的行动，导致美国与世界其他国家之间的一场致命的贸易战！
美国这种愚蠢的行为可能会在世界各地点燃一场草原之火，在这个全球科技时代，就算不比第二次世界大战更危险和更广泛，但它也很可能会变成致命的火花，引发一场重大的世界冲突！

AJWONG@******
15 hours 1 min ago
Brazil exports twice as much to China than it exports to the US and Trump is contemplating to build a wall along the US-Mexican border to prevent Mexicans from entering the US and demand the Mexicans to pay for the cost of the wall. Brazil and Mexico are smart countries.

巴西对中国的出口是其对美国出口的两倍，而特朗普正考虑在美墨边境修建一堵墙，以防止墨西哥人进入美国，并要求墨西哥人支付边境墙的费用，巴西和墨西哥是聪明的国家。

ginnywai@******
14 hours 58 min ago
In the real world, if people lend you money, you are supposed to be nice. USA is trillions in debt, mostly in Chinese hands.

在现实世界中，如果有人借钱给你，你就应该保持友善，美国有数万亿美元的债务，其中大部分在中国人的手里。

ankor
14 hours 56 min ago
OG! South Korea to copy China to slap retaliatory tariffs on US! What will happen to the dotard? lol

天 ! 韩国效仿中国对我们征收报复性关税！川普准备怎么办？LOL

（注：最新消息：韩国加入战团：对美国 4.8 亿商品加税）

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