外媒：中国经济危机即将来临 [卡塔尔媒体]

-------------译者：ooohmygod-审核者：normalone------------



hina is now facing rich country problems on a poor country budget.

中国编制着穷国的预算，却面临着着富国的种种问题。

China's new year headlines are all about the economy. Official plans call for slower growth in 2016 and beyond, with the 7.5 percent growth target reduced to 6.5 percent. A run of poor results in the manufacturing sector calls even that more modest target into question.

中国的新年头条全都与经济相关。官方指出2016及以后会面临经济增长减速，从7.5%的目标增速减至6.5%。来自制造业部门的一连串低迷数据引发了更低增速的质疑。

China's ultimate slowdown, once barely visible over the horizon, has now arrived. The era of easy growth based on China's reintegration into the global economy is now over.

中国的终极减速，曾经遥不可及，如今却悄然而至。中国基于融入全球经济而轻松发展的时代，如今已经终结。

-------------译者：公子晓白-审核者：normalone------------

Comparisons with Japan, Taiwan, and South Korea are inevitable. As these countries caught up with Western Europe and North America, their growth slowed, too. And just like these rich Asian democracies, China now has a declining birth rate and a rapidly aging population. The big worry in the big four countries of northeast Asia is no longer overpopulation: It's how to pay for eldercare.

把中国同日本、中国台湾和韩国相比是不可避免的。因为这些国家正在赶上西欧和北美，他们的增长也在放缓。正如亚洲的富裕的民主国家一样，中国正面临着低出生率和人口的迅速老龄化。现如今在东北亚各国中急需解决的最大的问题是如何支付养老。

The difference between China and the other countries of northeast Asia is that China is still relatively poor. China still lags well behind Mexico in gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, according to IMF estimates for 2015.

和其东北亚他国家不同的是，中国依旧相对较贫困。根据世界基金货币组织对2015年的估算，中国的人均GDP依然低于墨西哥。

China's GDP per capita of $8,280 is roughly one-third of South Korea's and one-quarter of Japan's. Adjusting for China's low cost of living doesn't change the overall picture.

中国的人均GDP只有8280美元，仅为韩国的三分之一，日本的四分之一。即使根据中国的低消费水平做出调整，也无法改变对整体形式做出改变。


-------------译者：龙腾翻译总管-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Tony Wu
Western nations are already developed.  China is not.  6.5% growth is as questionable as their underwater "spacewalk" passed off as a real spacewalk.

西方国家已经是发达国家了。中国不是。6.5%的增长率是很值得怀疑的，就像他们用水下的“太空行走"冒充真正的太空行走一样。

Lectori Salutem
no western nation manipulates its currency either

西方国家也没有操纵他们自己的汇率。
 
Mike Lin
Again?? LoL. How many times does China has to collapse to meet the predictions of all these "experts"?

又这样？？真滑稽。中国要衰落多少遍才能够迎合那些”专家“的所谓预测啊？
 
Tuan Nguyen
china  is  a  dead  meat

中国烦事多多。

Dfgd
Tough times ahead for China., but China will still be in much better condition than than Russia.
 Russia's economy is near collapse because the ruling midget was too foolish to build a functioning, diversified economy in his 15 years in power. Let's hope that things don't get so bad that Russians will have to resort to cannibalism, as they did in the 1930s!

 艰难的时代等着中国。但是中国还是会比俄罗斯好很多。
俄罗斯的经济已经接近崩溃，因为统治侏儒在掌权的15年间建设功能性的多样化的经济实在是太蠢了。让我们一起期望事情不会变得那么坏，就像20世纪30年代一样，俄罗斯会解决自相残杀的问题。
 
sean
Well this means i have less than three quarters of the next financial year to use my lab .

那么这就意味着我只要用下一个财政年的四分之三就能用上我的实验室。

-------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：normalone------------

Wayne Koppa
$8,280 can probably buy a $50,000 Chinese lifestyle in China.  Inflated costs of living usually results in more poverty.

 8280美金也许就能在中国买到价值50000美金的生活方式。生活成本的上涨通常会导致贫困加深。
 
endri
Maybe in the interior. In the coasts the cost is even higher than in the west

 也许是在内陆。沿海地区(生活）成本比起西部甚至会更高。
 
iroul
Not true. China has changed dramatically in last few years. From personal experience and estimation, 30,000 usd in Beijing in 2009 is similar to 80,000 in LA in 2015.

这不是真的。过去几年，中国发生了极大的变化。根据个人经验估计，北京2009年30000美金差不多相当于美国洛杉矶2015年的80000美金。

Tony Wu
Sorry.  But less than $10,000 annual income in China isn't going to get anyone living on the pacific coast with a family house in the suburbs of Shanghai, wife, kids in tow, and a car in the driveway.

楼上的，抱歉。但是在中国年收入少于10，000美金，家住上海郊区，加上老婆、孩子，还有开车的话，在太平洋沿岸，连一个人也养不起。

Jose Flores
One of the problems with China′s economics it′s the lack of credible data. The Chinese regime insists on a GDP growth of 7% or so, but many economists are not believing that, some say real GDP growth must be around 3%, some even put it in the negative. And this slow GDP growth has come only after massive debt and injection of capital, resulting in overcapacity and other inefficiencies in the Chinese economy. Their stock market crashes, because investors smell the big rat.

中国经济最严重的问题是数据缺失可信度。中国政府坚称其GDP增长率大概为7%。但是很多经济学家都不相信这一数据，有些经济学家认为真实的GDP增长率只有大概3%，还有一些甚至认为是负增长。通过大量的债务及资金的注入，中国才换来了这般缓慢增长的GDP并导致中国经济产能过剩以及其他的低效率的结果。他们的股票市场崩溃了，因为投资者们已经感到不妙。

-------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

William Murray
Not really a problem for them because they know the real numbers. How would it benefit them to tell anyone?

对于他们来说并不是什么问题，因为他们知道真正的数字。告诉别人又不会有什么好处。

Dfgd
Because lack of transparency, and lack of credibility in the numbers, results in undermining a country's credit standing, its currency and it scares of foreign investors.

 因为缺乏透明度，数据的可信度，导致一个国家的商业信用和货币受到削弱，也吓走了外国投资者。
 
Max Barry
You must not have any knowledge of economics. Investors in China and China's corporation stock without real numbers will hold back from investing.
Part of the lies are the cause of China's stock market's crash.

你肯定没有什么经济学常识。如果缺乏真实的数据，投资中国跟中国企业股票的投资者会因此止步。所以这部分的谎言是中国股市崩溃的原因所在。

Jay
The government dictates economy in a communist-run country so it will always play it safe which means manipulated growth or a fake economy would be another way to say it.  What investor is going to invest in a country that doesn't divulge it's real numbers?  China only hurts China.  After all, you don't see people risking life and limb to climb over the Great Wall, do you?

共产党执政的国家政府决定经济，所以不会玩出火。换句话说，这就意味着增长率的操纵或者经济的作假。什么样的投资者会投资一个没有揭露真实数据的国家？中国只是伤害了自己。毕竟，你没有看过人民是怎样冒着生命危险艰难地爬上万里长城的，对吧？

 -------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：文所未闻------------

Rre Eer
I think the truth is they don't know the real numbers. There are millions of small businesses personal businesses operating out of their garages as a store front and dealing exclusively in cash. Most of them are exempt from taxing. others are taxed at a flat percentage vs. sales (as opposed to profit). Simply because the state don't have the time/resources to sort out exactly who's doing what, much less how much GDP they are contributing.

我认为事实是他们不知道真实的数字。许许多多的做小生意的个人把他们的车库当做门店，仅仅用现金交易。他们大多数都不用缴税。剩下的一些人会根据销售额而非利润被征收个人所得税。原因很简单，政府没有时间跟资源去弄清楚究竟有什么人在些干什么。更没有时间去弄清楚他们对GDP做了多少贡献。

Kenneth Chung
A lot of motherhood statements without much figures and percentages to explain what it means. For example a rapidly Aging population with less workers supporting more elderly. So what percentage is considered critical? Also, I do not agree that the country is middle income. The coastal cities are as rich as Singapore. It is only the western and south western part of China which is poor.
The population of China is 1.3 billion. The economy can easily become twice of the US if not three times the size. It would indeed be a huge driver of the global economy.

祖国所发布的很多报告都没有提供太多解释性的数据和比例来说明。比如，没有足够的工人来支持快速老化的人口，所以多大的比例才算是危险的呢？还有，我认为中国不是中等收入国家。沿海城市和新加坡一样富有。只有西部和西南部地区是贫穷的。中国人口13亿。中国经济可以很容易的成为美国的两倍，如果不是三倍的话。所以确实会给全球经济带来巨大的推动。

 -------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：文所未闻------------

William Murray
It's the average, the amount of Lamborghinis in Beijing is pretty crazy. And you're right, it's the coastal manufacturing, but spend some time in the west and it's night and day. I recommend the train if you ever visit, it's world class and you can see the real countryside.
 
（作者不知道在回应谁的评论）这是平均来讲，而北京兰博基尼的总量是非常惊人的。你说的没错，的确是沿海制造业，但是你去西部看看，简直天差地别。如果你有天去中国的话我推荐你搭一下铁路，中国的铁路是世界一流水平的，而且你也能看到真正的农村。
 
Max Barry
Kenneth. The population of China is five times that of the US. Becoming twice the size still means per capita income is very low.
 
Kenneth。中国的人口总量是美国的五倍。即使经济规模达到美国2倍，那也意味着人均GDP仍然很低。
 
iroul
And it doesn't have the chance to be.
 
而中国经济不可能达到美国两倍。 

Tador Efann
When an economy that can still grow at 6.5% is considered in crisis, what do you call the other economy that can grow at only 1-3%. This is what is considered a distorted reporting when Al Jazeera  is infested with biased Western journalist .
 
如果一个经济体仍然能够保持GDP6.5%增长速度，却认为它在面临经济危机，那你叫那些GDP增长速度只有1-3%的国家怎么活？半岛电视台已经被抱有偏见的西方妓者给侵染了，这只是一篇扭曲的报导。
 
iroul
The first thing you need to realize is that China's GDP number has been publicly acknowledged as dishonest by authorities. This is why the Premier Keqiang Li promoted his own index.

首先你要清楚的是，官方已经公开承认中国的GDP数字是假的（翻译到这我嘴里的咖啡差点喷出来）。这就是为什么李克强总理会制作他自己的经济指标

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：文所未闻------------

Tony Wu
You know 6.5% is fake, right?
 
你知道中国6.5%的GDP增长速度是假的，对吧？
 
MillerNmiller27
China will pull through.  They are very sensible people.
 
中国会克服这个难关的，他们是非常明智的人
 
puxixi
This is the effect of being Greedy.
 
这就是贪婪的后果！
 
justrevolting
i don't know if mexico is richer than brazil (article says that) let alone by a lot.
actually maybe china is smart to create a deficit, as  they can no longer be plucked by being forced to buy other people's debts,
also i don't know if it worls ;like that for china. the corruption overhead in china is only a fraction of what it is in the west for example.
some 3-4% growth leads to a way more positive picture than in the crapitalist states.
 
 我不知道墨西哥是否比巴西发达（文章是这样说的），好了，不管这个。
实际上，或许中国是故意创造赤字的，这样他们可以不用再被逼着买其他国家的债券了。
我不知道全世界会不会都像中国这样。举个例子，中国的腐败开销和西方相比真是小巫见大巫。
3~4%的增长速度（在中国）比在资本主义国家更能带来正面效果。

William Murray
ROTFL, corruption overhead lower, lol

笑死我了，竟然说中国的腐败开销更低，哈哈！

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：文所未闻------------

justrevolting
99%
 
99% 

Max Barry
You got to be kidding. Have you ever done business in China or tries to business in China. Without corruption it will never happen. That is a way of life in China. Nothing like the West.
As to economics you are a dunce. China buys US bonds because they are a good stable investment. No one forces them or the hundreds of other countries that purchase US to buy those.
Are you jealous because you live in a country that no one wants to buy its bonds.
 
 你在搞笑吧。你到底有没有在中国做过生意？在中国不腐败你就做不了生意，这就是中国的生活，一点都不像西方。
至于谈到经济，你就像个傻B。中国之所以买美债券是因为买美国国债是个稳健的投资。没有人逼着中国来买，还有其他购买美国国债的那几百个国家，也同样没人逼他们。
你是不是妒忌了？因为你所在的国家没有人愿意去买它的国债。

Cory Gudwin
"the corruption overhead in china is only a fraction of what it is in the west for example"
you clearly know zero about life in China
 
”举个例子，中国的腐败开销在西方来说也只是个小问题“
很明显你对于在中国的生活一点都不了解
 
ZogtheCaveman
Stock brokers are saying the big world crash will be with in the next 3 years countries it will hit the hardest will be china and all those that depend on it like Australia,Canada,new Zealand ect who ride on china's back and 3rd world countries who china have been investing in big time.
And Yes the brokers will play a big part.

证券经纪人说，世界大崩盘将会在未来3年内发生！它将会袭击许多国家，而最严重的将会是中国，以及那些依附于中国的国家，像澳大利亚、加拿大、新西兰等等还有那些中国正大力投资的第三世界的国家
而且，没错！证券经纪人将会是其中的一个主角！（我猜这货是证券经纪人）

-------------译者：z8975623-审核者：文所未闻------------

Cory Gudwin
you perpetual doom-and-gloom guys deserve to be poor and miserable

你们这些总是哀叹前途悲观的家伙活该是穷人，闷闷不乐
 
Harry_the_first
another China collapse preacher. earning his dinner by by writing aritcles that appeals to the China bashing demographics LOL

又一个中国覆灭传道士，通过写一些呼吁抨击中国人口学的文章来养家糊口，亲
 
William Murray
It's saying that it could go either way depending on their leaders choices, but the slowdown part was a common consensus. Then again that's what you're trying to deflect from, but it's not us it's your fellow weibo users that you need to convince. I do have in interest in China staying economically strong but my interests don't mean anything.

这就表明中国可能是出现两个不同的结果，而这取决于他们领导者的选择。但是经济增长放缓是共识。但是这正是你想要否认的，但是你们应该说服的是那些使用微博的同胞。我确实对中国经济增长保持强劲很感兴趣。然而这并不意味着什么。
 
Max Barry
So you are Chinese?

那么你是中国人？
 
Mike Lin
I am - you got a problem?

我是-你有意见？
 
iroul
Chinese are so well trained watch dogs... Barking and biting everywhere... until their masters cook them :`(

中国人真是被驯得很好的看门狗。。。到处乱吠。。。直到他们的主人拿他们下锅 ：（

 -------------译者：jessie010316-审核者：文所未闻------------

Cory Gudwin
you perpetual doom-and-gloom guys deserve to be poor and miserable

你们这些总是哀叹前途悲观的家伙活该是穷人，闷闷不乐
 
Harry_the_first
another China collapse preacher. earning his dinner by by writing aritcles that appeals to the China bashing demographics LOL

又一个中国覆灭传道士，通过写一些迎合中国抨击者口味的文章来养家糊口，真是笑死了。
 
William Murray
It's saying that it could go either way depending on their leaders choices, but the slowdown part was a common consensus. Then again that's what you're trying to deflect from, but it's not us it's your fellow weibo users that you need to convince. I do have in interest in China staying economically strong but my interests don't mean anything.

这就表明中国可能是出现两个不同的结果，而这取决于他们领导者的选择。但是经济增长放缓是共识。那么这就是你总是想要偏离我们的，但是你们应该说服的是那些使用微博的同胞。我确实对中国经济增长保持强劲很感兴趣。然而这并不意味着什么。
 
Max Barry
So you are Chinese?

那么你是中国人？
 
Mike Lin
I am - you got a problem?

我是-你有意见？
 
iroul
Chinese are so well trained watch dogs... Barking and biting everywhere... until their masters cook them :`(

中国人真是被驯得很好的看门狗。。。到处乱吠。。。直到他们的主人拿他们下锅 ：（