中国债务与马尔代夫 [联合国媒体]

-------------译者：优-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------



hinese lending is putting the Maldives at risk of debt distress a study from the Center for Global Development said earlier this month. But what is debt distress and why should Maldivians care about it?

全球发展中心本月早些时候发布的一份研究报告显示，中国的贷款给马尔代夫带来了债务危机风险。但债务危机是什么？为什么马尔代夫人要在乎它？

“With debt distress there is a liquidity issue and a solvency issue” says one of the study’s authors John Hurley. “Liquidity is: ‘I can’t pay you today but I think I can pay you tomorrow.’ Solvency is much more serious. ‘There’s no way I can pay you without having to cut back to the bone.’ Debt distress means you can’t pay the debt normall

研究报告的作者之一John Hurley说：“债务危机存在偿债能力和偿付能力的问题”。“偿债能力”是：'我今天不能付给你，但我认为我明天可以付给你'。偿还能力问题要严重得多。'如果不彻底削减预算的话，我将没有办法偿还债务',债务危机意味着你无法正常地还债”。

The study says China is heavily involved in three major projects: an upgrade of the international airport costing around US$830 million the development of a new population centre and bridge near the airport costing around US$400 million and the relocation of the major port.

研究表明，中国积极参与了三大项目：耗资8亿3000万美元的国际机场升级改造，耗资4亿美元的机场附近居民点和桥梁新建工程，主要港口搬迁。

In addition the government has given a sovereign guarantee for a US$370 million Chinese loan. The terms for all of this financing are unclear as neither state is famed for its transparency.

此外，马尔代夫政府还为向中国贷款的3亿7000万美元提供了主权担保。所有这些融资的条款都不清楚，因为这两个国家都不透明。

The IMF and World Bank say the projects have the capacity to transform the Maldivian economy but are concerned about the high debt being fuelled by the infrastructure scale-up.

国际货币基金组织和世界银行说，项目有转变马尔代夫经济的能力，但是基础设施的升级助长了高负债。

Gateway House a think-tank in Mumbai says Chinese investments and aid to the Maldives have surged since 2012 supporting multiple housing projects a power plant a bridge water and sewage treatment plants hotels and airlines.

孟买智库Gateway House（梵文阁）表示，自2012年以来，中国对马尔代夫的投资和援助激增，支持多个住房项目，包括发电厂、桥梁、水和污水处理厂、旅馆和航空公司。

Its research says the three largest Chinese projects are together worth $1.5 billion and that there will be repayment problems.

它的研究表明，三个最大的中国项目在一起价值15亿美元而且会有还款问题。

But China denies this is the case saying the co-operation between the two countries follows market discipline and internationally accepted rules. “The so-called ‘debt trap’ is entirely groundless” according to the ambassador to the Maldives Zhang Lizhong.

但中国否认这种情况，说两国之间的合作遵循市场规律和国际通行规则。据驻马尔代夫大使 Zhang Lizhong说:”所谓的“债务陷阱”是完全没有根据的”。

-------------译者：坏孩子-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Nonetheless Finance Minister Ahmed Munavvar has already told parliament that public debt will be around MVR43 billion or 60 percent of GDP at the end of 2018 while the IMF and World Bank predict Maldivian debt to reach 121 percent of GDP by 2020.

尽管如此，财政部长艾哈迈德穆纳瓦已经告诉议会，到2018年底，公共债务将达到430亿拉菲亚（马尔代夫货币），占GDP的60 %，而国际货币基金组织和世界银行预计马尔代夫的债务到2020年将达到GDP的121 %。

President Abdulla Yameen has said the government’s foreign loans are aimed at providing youth housing increasing the airport’s capacity to cater to eight million tourists annually and job creation.

阿卜杜拉·亚米恩总统说，政府的外国贷款旨在为年轻人提供住房，提高机场每年接待800万游客的能力，并创造就业机会。

The government is also banking on the country’s biggest cash-cow – tourism. A bigger airport would mean more visitors. More visitors mean higher revenues from key taxes – such as green and GST – as well as from charges levied on travellers at the airport.

马尔代夫政府还依赖于本国最大的摇钱树——旅游业。一个更大的机场意味着更多的游客。更多的游客就意味着有更高的税收收入（比如环保税和增值税），而且机场游客收费也会更多。

The increased revenue would in turn pay Chinese debts.

增加的收入将反过来偿还中国的债务。

“If they’re looking at the airport expansion it may work out for them but it lends them to being susceptible. Egypt is a perfect example. It depended tremendously on tourism and it suffered terribly” says Hurley referring to the political turmoil deadly bombings and airline disasters that crippled the North African country’s tourism industry.

“如果他们正在考虑机场扩建，这可能对他们有帮助，但这让他们容易受到影响。埃及就是一个完美的例子。“赫尔利在谈到政治动荡、致命的爆炸和航空灾难时表示，该国严重依赖旅游业，并且遭受了严重的损失。

— Out of options —

—别无选择——

What China has done is certain cases reschedule the debt profile or debt repayment.

中国所做的是在某些情况下重新安排债务状况或偿还债务。

Hurley cites the case of Venezuela which has been given billions of dollars by China in the form of cash loans and investment. The debts are tied to oil and oil is seen as payment.

赫尔利援引委内瑞拉的例子，中国以现金贷款和投资的形式向委内瑞拉提供了数十亿美元。债务与石油挂钩，石油被视为付款。

But the Maldives lacks that option adds Hurley as he pivots to a more regional example of what could happen if Malé struggles or even fails to pay its debts.

但马尔代夫缺乏这种选择，赫尔利在转而举一个更具区域性的例子，如果马尔代夫陷入困境，甚至无力偿还债务，那么马尔代夫将会发生什么。
-------------译者：梧桐pasky-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

Last December Sri Lanka handed the port of Hambantota to China on a 99-year lease a deal seen as necessary to reduce the debt owed to Beijing. A state-owned firm has a 70 percent stake in the port.

去年十二月，斯里兰卡把汉班托特的港口交给了中国，这是一笔长达99年，被看作减少欠北京债务的必要交易。一家占有70％股份的国有企业。一家国有企业拥有该港口70%的股份。

'China is running the port for the most part they’re receiving revenue from it. That’s my understanding. China can end up running the (Maldives
international) airport or taking a stake in it” he says. “There is another possibility” he adds. “Djibouti.”

“中国经营掌控着这个港口的大部分运作，并从中获取利润。这是我对此的理解。中国能以运营（马尔代夫国际）机场而告终或最后入股该机场。“他说道。”还有另一种可能，“他补充道，”那就是吉布提共和国。“

The CGD report says that by the end of 2016 82 percent of Djibouti’s external debt was owned by China.

据中央政务区报道称，截至2016年，吉布提共和国82％的外债为中国所有。

The Horn of Africa nation is on the Gulf of Aden one of the world’s busiest shipping routes and last August China opened its first overseas military base there.

去年八月，非洲之角国家坐落于世界上最繁忙航线之一的亚丁湾处，中国在那里建立了他们的第一个海外军事基地。

“The Chinese have agreed to forgive or give more favourable terms in return for certain military access” says Hurley. “There might be some arrangement because of where the Maldives is located in return for certain ports or future agreements.”

赫尔利如此说道，”中国同意免除或给予更多的优惠政策以换取一定的军事通行权。中国可能还会有其他安排，因为马尔代夫（其所处的地理位置）能换取到一些港口和有关未来的协议。“

But there will be no foreign military activity in the Maldives according to the country’s ambassador to China although there is an agreement for China to build a maritime observatory in Haa Dhaalu atoll.

但根据该国驻华大使的说法，马尔代夫地区将不再有任何的外国军事活动，即使有一项协议同意中国在南提拉顿马提环礁建立一所海事观察站。

An alternative scenario if the Maldives struggles to repay China is one that would have a more direct impact on everyday life.

还有种情况是，如果马尔代夫难以偿还中国债务，那将会直接对其日常生活造成影响。

“There could be an increase in tax or services may be reduced because they have to use these funds to service the debt” says Hurley. “That has happened in other countries – redirecting funds to China instead of citizens.”

赫尔利表示，“因为不得不用这些资金去偿还债务的原因，税收或服务方面的增长可能会减少。这种资金转向中国而不是本国公民的情况，已经在其他有些国家发生了。”


-------------译者：优-审核者：龙腾翻译总管------------

#1 Not an economist
When referring to the debt problem of the Maldives the term ‘necessity evil’ comes to mind. Despite the fact that these projects do increase debt if the government can provide firms with opportunities to expand and grow their businesses I’m failing to see how this could be an issue. It is because in the long run the government can balance their accounts with the added revenue gained through taxes. However as we have observed from the past if the government keeps crowding out the private sector from having any significant influence on the economy there is much to be concerned.

一提到马尔代夫的债务问题，我就会想到“无可避免之灾祸”一词。尽管这些项目确实增加了债务，但是如果政府能够为企业提供扩大和发展业务的机会，我就看不出这可能是个问题，因为从长远来看，政府可以通过增加税收获得额外收入来达到收支平衡。然而，如果政府像我们过去看到的那样，不断排挤对经济有重大影响的私营（企业），那就会有许多问题需要关注。

Mises ● March 27 15:27
Oh come on increased government debt and the proposition of making the private sector bigger? Haven’t we learned anything from the Keynesian policies that still hasn’t brought back advanced economies back to its pre-crisis growth levels? If we want the Maldives to maintain sustainable economic growth we need austerity and to solve this debt burden we pose our children. Growing debt mainly to a global superpower is the more significant problem. After all economic independence is what nations must desire.

拜托，增加政府债务和让私营经济做大？这啥鬼建议。难道我们还没有从凯恩斯主义（的财政）政策中吸取到任何教训吗？这些政策有使发达经济体恢复到危机前的增长水平吗？如果我们想要马尔代夫的经济保持可持续地增长，我们就需要实施（财政）紧缩，并解决我们给下一代造成的债务负担。对全球超级大国来说，债务增长是一个更为重要的问题。毕竟，经济独立是各国都必须渴求的。
（译注：凯恩斯主义，主张国家采用扩张性的经济政策，通过增加需求促进经济增长。即扩大政府开支，实行财政赤字，刺激经济，维持繁荣）

Not an economist ● March 27 16:58
It is quite ironic that you’ve mentioned austerity and advanced economies given the fact that IMF and Germany have got it so wrong by imposing austerity measures in Greece. Moreover as far as the debt burden posed on our children is concerned I would like to say that though they may be in debt if the economy is strong enough we could repay that debt. However for that to work we need more industries. Afterall what better way to seek economic independence when we reach a state where we don’t have to rely on foreign aid.

你提到紧缩政策和发达经济体这两点还真是够讽刺，毕竟国际货币基金组织（IMF）和德国在希腊实施紧缩措施是错误的。此外，就担忧我们子女的债务负担而言，我想说，虽然他们可能会负债，但是如果经济够强大，我们还是可以偿还掉那债务的。然而，要做到这一点，我们还需要更多的产业。毕竟当我们能做到经济独立时，我们就不用再倚赖外国援助了。

Mises ● March 27 17:38
I admire your wishful thinking but let’s face the reality of the situation. We face high taxes at the moment. Are you implying that we add more taxes? If so how do you propose this can grow our businesses?

我钦佩你的痴心妄想，但让我们诚实面对现实情况吧。我们如今正面临着高额税收。然后照你的意思是我们还得加更多的税吗？说说你的计划，加税如何发展扩张我们的商业？

#2 Sandeep ● March 29 19:58
Maldives will never face debt issues as they will become Chinese Military base parking docks for Chinese nuclear submarine and a Chinese Colony in today’s world picking sides is not only dangerous but also self detrimental .. relying on just one source of income (i.e.) tourism is suicidal Maldives deserves far better but its dictating government has chosen a path it construes to be correct i would only say best of luck to Maldivians .. India will always be for help when they need India !

马尔代夫将永远不会面临债务问题，因为它将成为中国的军事基地、用来停靠核潜艇的码头和中国在当今世界里的殖民地，表明立场选择站哪方阵脚不仅危险且是一种害己的行为。....依靠旅游将其作为唯一的收入来源是自杀性的行为，马尔代夫值得变得更好，但其受支配的政府选择了一条其自认为是正确的路，我只能祝马尔代夫好运了.....当他们需要印度时，印度永远会伸出援助之手！