全球二氧化碳排放已趋于稳定需有对策 [英国媒体]

The world’s carbon-dioxide emissions have stabilised

全球二氧化碳排放已趋于稳定

But they need to fall to have a real impact on climate change

我们需要实质性的对策来应对环境变化



IT COULD be a rare piece of good news in the battle against global warming. The International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s most prominent energy forecaster, said on March 16th that carbon-dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels have remained flat for two years in a row. Emissions from the world’s two biggest polluters, America and China, have been falling. The world has not seen such a lull since the early 1980s.

对于阻止全球变暖，这可是难得的好消息。国际能源方面的权威组织，国际上最权威的能源预测机构——国际能源署（IEA）3月16日表示，化石燃料碳排放量已连续两年持平。而其中最大的两个大户，美国和中国，（这两年的排放量）在下降。从80年代起，还是头一次看到如此令人欣慰的景象。

The IEA’s provisional findings will fan a debate about whether global emissions have peaked. China, after all, is trying to rebalance its economy away from heavily polluting industries towards services. But analysts say two years is too short a period to be considered a lasting trend. What is more, the IEA is relying on data that many economists question. If China’s official growth figures are exaggerated, then it would not be becoming less carbon intensive as fast as it seems.

尽管IEA的调查是这样，将来碳排放量是否会下降仍然没有明确的说法。尽管中国正在进行产业转型，但分析师表示，两年太短，并不足以预计将来的趋势。而且，IEA援引的数据，很多经济学家都表示质疑。如果中国的经济增长数据是往大了说的，谁又能保证他们的碳排放数据不是往小了说的呢。

The IEA said the world’s energy-related emissions of carbon dioxide stood at 32.1 billion tonnes last year, for the second year running. This is the first time they have remained flat during a period of economic expansion in more than 40 years. Fatih Birol, the IEA’s director, says the three main drivers were a big growth of renewable-energy use in global power generation, led by wind turbines; a switch in America from coal-fired plants to natural-gas-fuelled ones after the shale revolution and a government-led effort in China to curb emissions due to concerns about pollution as well as climate change.

IEA表示，去年的能源相关的碳排放量是321吨，与前年持平。与此同时，经济增长，这是过去40年都没有的情况。IEA的主管Fatih Birol表示，三驾马车分别是，可再生新能源的开发如风力发电；美国的页岩气革命；中国政府领导的产业转型。节能减排不但可以降低污染，还能改善气候。

Mr Birol says the rapid deployment of renewables is good news; it tallies with the IEA’s best-case scenario for tackling global warming and shows emissions are “decoupling from economic growth”. But he expresses concern that the progress will be ephemeral: the low prices of natural gas and coal may undermine new investment in wind and solar power. They may also slow the trend toward improved energy efficiency.

Borol表示，可再生能源的快速发展是个好消息。这完全符合IEA对于控制全球变暖的设想，并且有助于将碳排放量与经济增长“脱钩”。不过他也担心，可能这种好局面不会维持太久：现在过低的天然气与煤炭价格可能会打击风能与太阳能这类新能源的投资热情。也可能会对提高资源利用率起到负面影响。

The IEA’s most contentious finding is that emissions from China, the world’s biggest polluter, dropped 1.5% last year. Some experts will see this as evidence that China’s emissions will peak within a decade, if they haven’t already. The Chinese government, though, has insisted its emissions will continue to grow until 2030. In a report this month Fergus Green and Nicholas Stern of the London School of Economics said the official projections should be taken with a pinch of salt, since the government prefers “to under-promise and over-deliver.”

IEA最有争议的发现是中国这个世界上最大的污染制造者，去年的排放量降低了1.5%。有专家认为，若中国的碳排放顶峰应该就在近10年内，即使现在没达到也不会高太多。不过，中国政府的计划中，依旧坚持他们在2030年前不会减少排放。来自伦敦政经的 Fergus Green与Nicholas Stern说，政府发言不可轻信，他们喜欢“少做承诺，超额完成”

Richard Black of the Energy and Climate Intelligence Unit, a British think-tank, says the improvement in China represents a “huge turnaround”, and that its replacement of coal with renewable energy is likely to continue. However Michael Levi of America’s Council on Foreign Relations notes that the United States is still emerging from a period of deep economic weakness, China is restructuring and India is quickly developing, so the conditions that have brought emissions to a standstill may swiftly dissipate. He says that carbon dioxide emissions will need to fall to have a meaningful impact on climate change. “The first step towards reducing emissions is stabilising them, but it’s still only a first step.”

ECIU(英国的智库组织)的Richard Black说这些改善代表着中国正在“大转身”，可再生能源大量代替煤矿应该是长期行为。美国外交关系委员会成员Michael Levi指出，美国经济仍在疲软中，中国正在产业转型，印度也在飞速发展，眼下的排放停滞的条件并不充分。二氧化碳的减排对于气候的影响意义深远，第一步已经走好，但这仅是开始。



Nickira
I am always struck by the fact that the US is with China the biggest polluter and it has about a quarter of the population of China. The GOP climate deniers have an awful lot to answer for. What a dreadful party.

我要强调的事实是，美国的人口是中国的四分之一，但是却产生了全球最多的污染。而该死的GOP（对美国共和党的蔑称）还极力否认他们对环境影响。真是个恶心的党派。

Carlingford2
"But they need to fall to have a real impact on climate change".“我们需要实质性的对策来应对环境变化”
What a lot of hogwash.

真是扯淡

There is absolutely no scientific evidence, other than from lefties, that man has had anything material to do with climate change.

即使是最激进的研究，也没有任何成果表明人能实质的影响自然环境变化

Any more than the absence of man in past millenniums had any influence in stopping the massive cooling and warming periods.

其实人类对环境是很无力的，过去的几千年，无论是环境在变冷还是变暖，人类都无能为力。

Like the massive sheet of ice that covered the entire North American continent and, without any influence from the absent man, melted completely.

巨大的冰川曾经覆盖南美大陆，没人管，它们就这么自然的化了。

guest-nslmwis
Way are there so many idiots, who do not understand that C02 is plantfood, and not a toxic gas.....Historicly, C02 levels are low.....every time, in the past, when C02 concentrations where much higher, life and nature trived on it...new species came to life...forrests grew ( we need that now..)...and by the way. climate IS change....ps : the world has been cooling for the last 17 years, despite the rise in C02...

真是一帮蠢货。二氧化碳是植物的养分，而不是有害气体。自古以来二氧化碳的含量都不低，现在的二氧化碳。以前二氧化碳含量很高的时候，自然会调节的。过去的17年虽然二氧化碳含量在升高，但世界其实变得更冷了。

   Carlingford2
   Spot on!!

   完全正确！

sikko6
China, America, EU and India should reduce pollution. Then problem solved.

中国，美国，欧盟，印度都减排，那就都不是事儿了。

    Polar_Bear
    So you have never seen factory exhaust vents before?

所以你是从来没见过工厂的烟囱么？

      Carlingford2
      Pollutants are those that can be seen from from exhaust vents, my boy. Not CO2

当然看过，但是排出的是污染物，而不是二氧化碳

Moran ya Simba
Global warming has taken a pause for a decade and a half by now...

全球变暖早已经停止了快10年了吧