中日关系正处历史性转折点，但友好关系是否能长存？ [联合国媒体]

Japanese Prime MinisterShinzo Abe’s latest China visit marked a major effort to reset the tumultuousrelations between the two Asian giants amid a backdrop of historicalgrievances, territorial disputes in the East China Sea and geopolitical rivalryin the wake of Beijing’s rapid ascendancy in the region.

日本首相安倍晋三最近访华，标志着在历史怨恨、东海领土争端和地缘政治角逐的背景下，随着北京在该地区的迅速崛起，两个亚洲大国改善他们动荡不安的关系的重大成果。

In the first official visitby a Japanese leader since 2011, Abe, who wrapped up his three-day trip toBeijing on Saturday, appeared to have achieved his goal of putting ties back ontrack after a seven-year nadir.

在2011年以来日本领导人首次正式访华中，安倍在周六结束了为期三天的北京之行，他似乎已经实现了在七年冰点之后使两国关系回到正轨的目标。



“Switching from competitionto collaboration, bilateral relations have entered a new phase,” he toldreporters after “frank” talks with Premier Li Keqiang on Friday. “Japan andChina are neighbours and partners and we have to avoid becoming threats to eachother,” he said.

在星期五与中总理“坦率”会谈后，他对记者说：“从竞争到合作，双边关系进入了一个新阶段。”他说：“日本和中国是邻国和伙伴，我们必须避免相互威胁。”

The visit came in the midstof rapid changes in the global order as a shift in power dynamics – years inthe making – plays out among a rising China and the existing giants in worldaffairs, including the US and Japan, which China overtook as the world’ssecond-largest economy in 2010.

此次访问正值全球秩序迅速变化之际，随着中国崛起，在2010年取代日本成为世界第二大经济体，包括美国和日本在内的现存大国的实力格局发生了早已酝酿多年的变化。

More importantly, the tripcoincided with the spiralling tariff war between Beijing and Washington, and alooming clash over national interests that went far beyond trade frictionsunder US President Donald Trump’s “America first” strategy.

更重要的是，此次访问正值北京和华盛顿之间不断螺旋升级的关税战争，以及美国总统特朗普的“美国优先”策略导致的逐渐浮现的中美两国间在贸易摩擦之上的国家利益冲突中。



Although Xi and Abe have meton at least eight occasions at multilateral events, Abe’s visit last week wasthe first in the form of an official visit by either side since both men tookoffice in 2012.

尽管中国和安倍在多边活动中至少见过八次，但安倍上周的访问是两人自2012年上台以来的首次正式形式的访问。

Pundits believe thatalthough hardly any breakthroughs were reached on contentious bilateral issues,Abe’s Beijing trip was still of symbolic significance for both China-Japan tiesand international politics in the Trump era.

专家认为，尽管在有争议的双边问题上几乎没有取得任何突破，但安倍晋三的北京之行对中日关系和特朗普时代的国际政治仍然具有象征意义。

Sino-Japanese relations,like Beijing’s love-hate relationship with Washington, have their intrinsicproblems, according to Yun Sun, East Asia Programme senior associate at theWashington-based Stimson Centre. The list includes the countries’ wartimehistory, territorial disputes in the East China Sea, deep-rooted distrust andhostility, regional competition and the US-Japan military alliance.

总部设在华盛顿的斯蒂姆森中心（StimsonCenter）东亚项目高级助理孙云（YunSun）表示，中日关系，就像北京与华盛顿的爱恨关系一样，有其内在的问题。这份列表包括这些国家的战时历史、东海领土争端、根深蒂固的不信任和敌意、地区竞争以及美日军事联盟。



His trip to China in October2006 as a newly elected prime minister, just months after a massiveanti-Japanese demonstration was held across China in the spring of 2005, washailed at the time by China’s leaders as “a turning point” in the two nations’strained relations.

在2005年春季在中国各地举行了大规模的抗日示威活动几个月后，他于2006年10月作为新当选的首相访华，当时中国称赞他为两国紧张关系的“转折点”。

The demonstration wassparked by former Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi’s persistent visitsto the Yasukuni Shrine, where convicted war criminals were honoured, creatingfriction with Japan’s East Asian neighbours.

这次示威是由日本前首相小泉纯一郎持续访问靖国神社所引发的，靖国神社对被判有罪的战犯予以荣誉，使日本与日本东亚邻国产生了摩擦。

However, Abe’s success inushering in the rapprochement with China was short-lived.

然而，安倍在促成与中国和解方面取得的成功却是昙花一现。

Japan’s relations with itsbiggest trading partner were hit again by another round of larger, violentanti-Japanese protests in 2012 over disputes over the Senkaku Islands in theEast China Sea, a group of uninhabited islets known as Diaoyu in China.

2012年，日本与其最大贸易伙伴中国的关系再次受到另一轮规模更大、更暴力的抗日抗议活动的打击，抗议活动涉及东海尖阁列岛（中国称为钓鱼岛）的争端。



Abe’s visit came as Chinawas becoming increasingly worried about being isolated internationally as aresult of the trade war with the US, she said.

她表示，安倍此次访问之际，中国正日益担心由于与美国的贸易战而被国际孤立。

“A direct offshoot of theChinese fear is the hope and desire to boost Japanese investments, especiallywhen economic growth is slowing in China,” she said.

她说：“中国所担忧的一个直接分支是希望及渴望推动日本投资，尤其是在中国经济增长放缓的时候。”

“As for Japan, by pullingthe plug on offering development aid to China which began in 1979, the Abeadministration is looking towards building a new economic relationship withChina, based more on an equal footing and not one that provides lopsidedbenefits to China alone.”

至于日本，从1979年开始就停止向中国提供发展援助，安倍政府正在寻求与中国建立新的经济关系，这种关系建立在更加平等的基础上，而不是仅仅为中国提供不平衡利益的基础上。

Lee Myon-woo, a Japan expertand vice-president of the Sejong Institute in Seoul, said the Xi-Abe summit wasunlikely to solve the structural problems in the countries’ relationship.

日本专家、汉城世宗研究所副会长Lee Myon woo说，中日领导人峰会不太可能解决两国关系中的结构性问题。

“While there would be someimprovements of bilateral relations after the summit, Japan is still likely tocontinue [with] its China containment strategy to limit growing Chineseinfluence over the Asia-Pacific region,” he said.

他说：“虽然峰会后双边关系会有所改善，但日本仍可能继续实施遏制中国的战略，以限制中国在亚太地区日益扩大的影响力。”



“The trade war is not goodfor either China or Japan since it targets both of them, and the US tariffs oniron and steel hit Japan even more harshly since their exports for thesematerials far exceed China,” he said.

他说：“这场贸易战对中国和日本都不利，因为它们同时针对中日两国，而且美国对钢铁的关税对日本的打击更为严重，因为日本对这些材料的出口远远超过中国。”

“But despite this, Japaneseleaders refuse to directly attack the US because their alliance with the US isat the centre of their foreign policy strategy. But they are neverthelessaligned with China on the trade front.”

“但尽管如此，日本领导人拒绝直接攻击美国，因为他们与美国的联盟是其外交政策战略的核心。但他们在贸易方面仍然与中国统一阵线。”

Abe’s trip to Beijing, hesaid, would pave the way for greater cooperation, marked in particular by thesigning of business contracts between both sides, as well as likely agreementson the East China Sea, bilateral naval exchanges and an expected deal to expandthe currency swap line, reportedly to about 3 trillion Japanese yen (US$26.8billion).

他说，安倍访问北京将为加强合作铺平道路，特别是双方签署了商业合同，以及有关东海、双边海军可能的交流协议以及被预期的大约3兆日元（268亿美元）的扩大货币互换协议。

Gal Luft, a co-director ofthe Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, saidTrump’s recent hardline China trade and military policies – a catalyst in thehistoric plunge in Sino-US relations – had put Japan in an uneasy situation.

总部设在华盛顿的全球安全分析研究所（Institute for Global Security）联合主任加尔·卢夫特（Gal Luft）说，特朗普最近强硬的对中国贸易和军事政策——中美关系历史性下滑的催化剂——使日本处于不安的局面。



“The US might be decouplingthe US and Chinese economies, but it cannot demand other countries do the same.While it appears that Beijing and Tokyo are getting closer to each other, itshould be remembered that their relationship was below zero temperature.

“美国可能将美国和中国经济脱钩，但不能要求其他国家也这么做。虽然北京和东京似乎越来越接近对方，但应该记住，他们的关系曾在零度以下。

“So evenwhen it improves, it is not comparable to the US-Japan relationship, which isthe strongest alliance in the region,” she said.

她说：“因此，即使情况有所改善，也无法与美日关系相提并论。美日关系是该地区最强大的同盟。”

For Xi, whose assertivenessdiplomacy has backfired in the US and among China’s Asian neighbours, thepriority would be to improve ties with regional powers such as Japan and Indiato counterbalance US pressure, according to David Zweig, a professor at theHong Kong University of Science and Technology.

中国的自信主义外交在美国和中国的亚洲邻国中适得其反，因此其首要任务是改善与日本和印度等地区大国的关系，以抵消美国的压力。香港理工大学的教授David Zweig说。

Xi “has lot of incentives toset aside the traditional anti-Japanese hostility that leaders in China alwaysfeel towards Japan and especially towards Abe,” he said, adding that it wasalso good for the Chinese leader’s image as a statesman.

他说，中国“有很大的动机来搁置中国一直以来对日本尤其是安倍的传统的反日敌意。”他补充说，这也有利于中国作为政治家的形象。

Abe probably understood thiswell and would prefer to have better ties with China, even as he maintained hissupport for the US-led quadrilateral alliance with Australia and India.

安倍可能很理解这一点，并希望与中国有更好的关系，即使他继续支持美国领导的与澳大利亚和印度的四边联盟。



Confidence in Trump andRussian President Vladimir Putin was also low across the globe, the surveyshowed.

调查显示，全球对特朗普和俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京的信心也很低。