从特朗普的美国，到中国，到问题隐现的欧元区和脱欧，2019年的市场和全球经济将走向何方？ [英国媒体]

From Trump's America, to China, the trouble brewing in the eurozone and Brexit, what's in store for markets and the global economy in 2019

从特朗普的美国，到中国，到问题隐现的欧元区和脱欧，2019年的市场和全球经济将走向何方？

A new year is virtually upon us and anybody with an interest in financial markets and the global economy will be asking themselves what will be driving things in 2019 and is a slowdown inevitable?

新一年已经近在眼前，任何对金融市场和全球经济感兴趣的人都要自问一句：2019年的驱动力何在？经济放缓不可避免吗？

Trying to get the crystal ball out to make specific predictions on exactly where stock markets and economies will be in the future is a fool's errand, but we can certainly make some good calls on what some of the major issues investors around the world will be wrestling with will be.

拿个水晶球对股市和经济未来究竟将如何发展做个预测，注定是徒劳无功的，但我们当然可以就世界各地的投资者将面临的一些重大问题作出一些良好的呼吁。

From Trump's America to China via the eurozone, there will be no shortage of things to watch closely.

从特朗普的美国，到欧元区，到中国，不乏需要我们密切关注的事情。

Watch what happens with Uncle Sam

看看山姆大叔怎么样了

At the moment the US has a partial government shutdown due to an impasse over funding for President Trump's desire wall along the Mexico border. That could run into next week, but is expected to be a temporary issue.

由于墨西哥边境墙（特朗普总统对此十分渴望）的拨款问题陷入僵局，目前美国政府部分关门。这件事可能持续到下个星期，但预计只是一个暂时性问题。

A more important thing to consider is the medium term picture for the US.

需要考虑的更重要的事情在于，美国的中期形势。

As goes America goes the global economy has been a pretty reliable maxim for decades and there is still plenty of truth in it. Although a nod to China is increasingly required as well, which we will get into shortly.

众所周知，几十年来“美国好，世界经济就好”，已经成为一句相当可靠的格言，其中依然有足够多的真实成分。尽管人们也同意对中国的需要也越来越高，我们会简单的说一下。

Focusing on the US, there is concern building that the strong economic expansion and stock market rally of the past couple of years has run out of steam.

集中说美国，有种担忧正在渐渐扩大，即过去几年的强大的经济扩张和股市反弹已经失去动力。

We have already seen shares take a dive recently. Economic growth has remained strong though so far.

尽管迄今为止经济增长依然强健，我们最近已经看到很多股票发生暴跌。

Central to the concerns is US central bank the Federal Reserve and its interest rate hiking schedule. The December meeting suggested that Chairman Jerome Powell and colleagues are mulling further hikes in 2019 which will really put the financial squeeze on.

这种担忧的核心在于美国央行美联储及其加息的时间表。12月份的会议表明，美联储主席JeromePowell和他的同事们正在考虑在2019年进一步加息，这将真正加剧财政紧缩。

This policy is helping to generate what is generally considered an early warning of an economic slowdown; yield curve inversion.

这一政策将导致收益率曲线反转，而它一般被认为是经济放缓的早期预警信号。

In straightforward terms, an inverted yield curve is a situation whereby short term bonds become more expensive to issue than long term; i.e they yield more money to investors. This happens because investors see more risk to the economy in the short term than further down the line.

直截了当地说，收益率曲线反转是指短期债券比长期债券发行成本更高的情况；也就是说，短期债券给投资者的收益率更高。之所以会出现这种情况，是因为投资者认为短期内经济面临的风险要比未来更大。

As with predictions of recessions in general, these things can become self-fulfilling prophecies and happen in large part simply because people think they are due to happen.

就像对经济衰退的预测一样，这些事情可以成为自我实现的预言，并且在很大程度上是因为人们认为它们即将发生。

How this plays out in the first quarter of next year could be key to how 2019 turns out. A strong America can carry the world economy along while a weakening one drags everywhere else down with it.

明年第一季度的表现可能是2019年结果的关键。强大的美国可以带动世界经济的发展，而疲软的美国则会拖累世界各地的经济。

China
China is the next most important component in the global economy and investors will be trying to gauge exactly how healthy the world's most populated country is economically.

中国
中国是全球经济又一个最重要的组成部分，投资者将试图准确评估这个全世界人口最多的国家在经济上的健康程度。

Official government figures on China's economy are taken with notorious scepticism, because the closed nature of how it operates means they can't be held up to the same level of scrutiny as numbers put out in the West.

中国政府官方的经济数据臭名昭着，伴随着怀疑论，因为其运作方式的封闭性，意味着这些数字无法与西方提出的数字接受相同水平的审查。

The suspicion is they are massaged for political reasons, leaving investors somewhat in the dark on what's really going on.

令人怀疑的是，这些数字是出于政治原因发布的，让投资者在某种程度上对真实情况两眼一抹黑。

Debt levels are a particular concern. Very little is known about exactly how indebted China is across various parts of the economy and the extent to which these debts can be adequately serviced. The government is effectively both lender and borrower, making things exceptionally opaque.

债务水平尤其令人担忧。很少人知道中国各个经济部门的负债程度，以及这些债务能够被充分偿还的程度。中国政府实际上既是借款人又是放款人，使得事情的透明度极低。

China says it is still growing at over 6 per cent a year. Most independent estimates put it at somewhere nearer to 4 to 5 per cent.

中国称它每年的经济增长率超过6%。而大多数独立人士估计这一数字接近4-5%。

If China can keep the show on the road at these sort of levels though then the world economy would have a good chance of avoiding a major slowdown. Any clues that it is falling well beneath this would set alarm bells off.

如果中国能够继续保持这样的水平，那么世界经济很有可能避免大的衰退。如果有线索表明它低于这一水平，那将为世界经济敲响警钟。

Global trade tensions
The global trade tensions issue overlaps heavily with the two already discussed. Ever since Donald Trump took power with a stated plan to take a tougher line on international trade and China in particular, financial markets have been enthralled by each twist in the saga.

全球贸易紧张
全球贸易紧张问题与上述二者严重重叠。自从唐纳德特朗普执政以来，就确定了将在国际贸易上秉持更加强硬立场的计划，尤其是对中国，此事每发生一次转折，就给金融市场带来一次震荡。

A full scale breakdown in US trade with China and other countries in 2019 would undoubtedly weigh heavily on the global economy.

2019年，美国与中国和其他国家的贸易全面崩溃，无疑将给全球经济带来沉重压力。

So far though this has not looked likely, as each time the rhetoric and tension has been ramped up an olive branch of some kind has subsequently been extended. While some new tariffs have come in, the trade train is on the track still.

然而，到目前为止，全面崩溃似乎不太可能，因为每次出现严厉言辞，紧张局势加剧，随后都会递出某种形式的橄榄枝。虽然一些新的关税已经出台，但贸易列车仍在轨道上。

The issue of intellectual property theft by China is a potential flashpoint which could set off an escalation in tensions though, as could any unwelcome military manoeuvres in the region.

然而，中国窃取知识产权的问题是一个潜在的引爆点，可能引发紧张局势的升级，该地区举行的任何不受欢迎的军事演习也可能引发紧张局势升级。



Eurozone troubles
There is trouble brewing over in the European Union, independent from the impending departure from the bloc of its second biggest economy - the UK.

欧元区的麻烦
欧盟内部正酝酿着麻烦，其第二大经济体-英国即将退出这个集团。

The industrial engine of the continent and largest country Germany is starting to slow down. Its economy contracted by 0.2 per cent in the third quarter of this year and various surveys such as business confidence are going firmly in the wrong direction, suggesting a recession is on the cards.

德国作为欧洲大陆的工业引擎，和最大的国家，正在开始放缓。本年第三季度，它的经济收缩了0.2个百分点，例如企业信心等多种调查正在坚定的走向错误的方向，暗示衰退即将发生。

Alongside this, the EU is embroiled in a battle with a populist-governed Italy over its profligate budget plans.

除了这个，欧盟因其挥霍无度的预算计划而卷入了与民粹主义统治下的意大利的争斗。



The can has been kicked down the road for now in classic EU fashion, but with Emmanuel Macron's France also showing little regard for EU rules on public spending after succumbing to 'yellow vest' protests, the situation seems likely to rear its head again during 2019.

到目前位置，这个阻碍已经以欧盟典型的风格被解决掉了，但是随着伊曼纽尔.马克龙的法国在屈服于“黄背心”抗议后，也表现出对欧盟在公共开支方面的兴趣缺缺，2019年这种局面似乎有可能再次抬头。

It emerged after Christmas that the EU will accept a French budget deficit in 2018 above its 3 per cent ceiling, 'as a one-time exception,' according to an itnerview with Budget Commissioner Günther Oettinger.

据欧盟预算专员Günther Oettinger在一次采访中透露，欧盟在圣诞节后，将接受法国2018年高于3%上限的预算赤字，名义是“一个一次性例外”。

All this takes place against the backdrop of the withdrawal of quantitative easing by the European Central Bank. The QE programme has been the major driver of a modest economic bounce seen across much of the eurozone in the past few years and taking it away could pull the financial rug out from under it.

所有这些都是在欧洲央行退出量化宽松的背景下发生的。过去几年，量化宽松政策一直是欧元区大部分地区经济温和反弹的主要推动因素，如果取消量化宽松政策，可能会给欧元区的金融市场蒙上一层阴影。

There are also EU elections coming up where anti-establishment parties are expected to do much better than they have historically.

欧盟还有一些国家即将举行大选，预计反建制政党的表现将超过以往。

Oil
While it's often said that the bond market is what really runs the world, the oil market would be a strong contender for second place.

石油
虽然人们常说债券市场才是真正的世界主宰，但石油市场应该是第二位的有力竞争者。

The price of oil has major geopolitical and economic implications and 2019 looks set to be an interesting year as far as the black stuff under the sand and sea is concerned.

石油价格具有重大的地缘政治和经济影响，说到这种埋藏在沙子和海洋下的黑色物质，2019年将是有趣的一年。

After rallying sharply to over $80 a barrel earlier this year putting the pinch on household budgets around the world, oil has plunged back to much lower levels, with the OPEC cartel and others seemingly unwilling or unable to make big cuts to supply.

今年早些时候，油价大幅反弹至每桶80美元以上，给全球家庭预算带来了压力。如今，油价已回跌到低得多的水平，欧佩克和其他国家似乎不愿或没有办法大幅削减供应。



There are signs of cracks in OPEC appearing as Qatar pulls out over tensions with its bigger neighbour Saudi Arabia.

随着卡塔尔因与其更大的邻国沙特阿拉伯关系紧张而退出，欧佩克出现了裂痕。

On 28 December 2018, a barrel of West Texas Intermediate was fetching just $45.50 while Brent crude was trading at $53.50.

2018年12月28日，西德克萨斯中转原油的价格仅为每桶45.50美元，而布伦特原油的价格为53.50美元。

Whether prices stay low or ramp back up will be an important factor to watch in 2019.

2019年油价是保持在低位，还是逐渐回升？将是一个值得关注的重要因素。

Lower prices at the petrol pumps is good news up to a point. If the oil price slips too low however it likely means demand is falling away and a global economic slowdown is looming.

油价下降在某种程度上是个好消息。然而，如果油价下跌得太低，可能意味着需求正在下降，全球经济放缓正在逼近。

What about Brexit
There's not been much mention of Brexit lately, so I almost forgot about it.

脱欧怎么说
最近很少有人提到英国脱欧，所以我几乎忘了这件事。

In all seriousness, although it may seem the be-all and end-all in Britain for understandable reasons, Brexit is not likely to be key to the fortunes of the world or the wider financial markets, with the US and China firmly in the driving seat.

严肃地说，尽管出于可以理解的原因，脱欧似乎已是万事俱备，但英国脱欧不太可能成为决定全球或更广泛金融市场命运的关键，美国和中国将牢牢占据主导地位。

It will of course be central to how the UK economy does in 2019. Getting some sort of resolution before March could see a huge cloud lifted and lead to a pretty decent uptick in the economy with investment coming back, stocks climbing and house prices back on a strong rise.

当然，这件事对英国经济在2019年的表现至关重要。如果在3月份前产生某种解决方案，可能产生巨大的提振作用，并使经济出现相当可观的增长，投资回归，股市攀升，房价回升，都将出现强劲的增长。

If the uncertainty is prolonged though, or an acrimonious breakdown in relations between the UK and EU transpires then all bets are off and economic difficulty in the short term seems likely.

不过，如果这种不确定性迁延日久，或者英国与欧盟之间的关系出现尖锐的破裂，那么所有的赌注都将消失，短期内似乎很可能出现经济困难。

….and the spectre of Corbyn

……以及科尔宾的幽灵



While Brexit receives most of the headlines and bluster at the moment for obvious reasons, it isn't really the biggest worry in the City.

尽管目前因显而易见的原因，脱欧占据了英国大部分新闻头条，一度甚嚣尘上，但这并不是伦敦最大的担忧。

That comes in the form of Jeremy Corbyn and his hard-left plans for the country should the Government collapse and he somehow gets his hands on the levers of power next year.

最大的担忧将以这种形式出现：杰里米·科尔宾和他的强硬左派为这个国家制定了计划，如果现任政府明年垮台，他将执掌大权。

Heavy-handed state intervention would spook financial markets, shake confidence and could quite conceivably send the UK into a recession.

其严厉的政府干预会吓到金融市场，动摇信心，很可能会让英国陷入衰退。

Corbyn seizing power does still seem an unlikely occurrence, however, particularly if Britain's withdrawal from the EU gets put to bed one way or the other in March.

然而，科尔宾夺取权力的局面似乎仍然不太可能发生，尤其是如果英国退出欧盟的做法在3月份以某种方式被搁置起来的话。

Labour's deliberately ambiguous position on Brexit helped them greatly in 2017 election and in the polls since, but if the matter is taken out of the equation a large chunk of this support could evaporate.

工党在英国脱欧问题上有意模棱两可的立场，极大地帮助了他们在2017年的大选和此后的民调中获得巨大帮助，但如果这一问题被排除在外，他们的很大一部分支持可能会消失不见。

Stu Pidd
Corbyn follows Brexit like night follows day. That's why I voted for Brexit. Didn't all the Brexiters do the same?

科尔宾紧跟着脱欧上台，就像黑夜跟着白天。这就是我投票同意脱欧的原因。所有脱欧者难道不都是这样做的吗？

Stu Pidd
!Italy has managed to avert EU sanctions after reaching a compromise with the European commission over its 2019 budget." from the 19th of this month, widely reported by just about every other news media!

“意大利在与欧盟委员会就2019年预算达成妥协后，得以避免欧盟的制裁。”从本月19日开始，几乎所有其他新闻媒体都对此做了广泛的报道！

John Marshall
Trump and china will make a deal - it's in both their interests to. Oil will rally to about 60 or 70. Britain and the EU will hammer out a last minute deal.........

特朗普和中国将达成协议——这符合双方的利益。石油价格将回升至60或70美元左右。英国和欧盟将在最后一刻达成协议。

Paul
Out of the people that were in Trumps team on the First day how many are left, how many have broken the law and still hold files over him ?

从第一天开始到现在，特朗普团队的所有人有多少人已经离开？有多少人触犯了法律却被他免于起诉？

London Van Man
Getting some sort of resolution, 'WHAT', i do not know where or who is painting over our situation but whoever your are let me tell you this has been a long time coming and for that alone things here are not good. High street shops here lining up to close, work expenses going up in every sector, the internet undercutting at every opportunity, councils being more and more assertive in their approach to extorting us, the doors of us removing our cash to sunny climates firmly closed. Some sort of resolution is nothing but a fantasy I'm afraid.

“得到某种解决”，什么？我不知道哪里或者谁在描绘我们的处境，但无论你是谁，我都要告诉你，这种事情很长时间以来一直在发生，因此就这件事是不好的。这里的商业街商店排着队关门，每个部门的工作费用都在增加，网络拦截了每个机会，议会在敲诈我们的方法上越来越强硬，我们把现金取出来的门路被紧紧的关闭了。我恐怕“某种解决途径”什么都不是，只是一种幻想。

Hungy Hungy Hippo
Kick Chinnna's head till it splits Trump.

在中国劈掉特朗普之前，先踢飞中国的头。

MJ..., Shire.
If Trump keeps trying to control and interfere with the world economy like its his own business, It will end up bankrupt like his past businesses!

如果特朗普继续试图控制并干涉世界经济，就像那是他自己的生意一样，那么世界经济就会像他过去的生意那样，以破产告终。

Michael Stewart 70
No one f.... knows lets get real.Who forecast the 2008 crash ?.The only difference now is the bank need to have enough reserves and their is also good old QE.

谁都不知道，我们还是面对现实吧。谁预料到了2008年的崩溃？现在唯一的区别就是银行需要有足够的储蓄，还有过去美好的量化宽松。

The boat guy
Everyone has a crack-pot theory of what?ll happen in 2019 and it?s getting old. They?re panicking the uninformed and that?s leading to these ridiculous 600 to 1000 point swings.

每个人都有一个2019年会发生什么的裂锅理论，越来越老套。信息不足让他们恐慌不已，也导致了那些600点到1000点之间的荒谬波动。

Frankie who
If the EU doesn't want Corbyn then they had better give us a good Brexit and Trade Deal otherwise the Tories haven't any hope of winning the next election whenever it comes. Tory Leave voters don't even have to vote for Cornbyn they just need to abstain and a great many will do that as they are sick of this Tory Remain gov and Remainer May.

如果欧盟不想科尔宾上位，那么他们最好让我们好好的脱欧，还有一个划算的贸易协定，否则保守党下一次将毫无希望获胜，无论什么时候到来。保守党的脱欧选民甚至不需要投票给科尔宾，他们只需要投弃权票，很多人就会这样做，因为他们对这个留欧的保守党政府和留欧的梅姨感到厌烦。

guardamar
Once May shows some backbone, if anybody believes she means it, UK will be the place for all overseas investors, hoping to buy cheap and sell high.

一旦梅姨展示出一些骨气，如果有人相信她是认真的，英国将成为所有希望低买高卖的海外投资者的理想之地。

Richard 10
Lots of issues to happen in 2019 !!

2019年会发生很多问题！

Yamoto
A populist free new year would be very welcome for the markets,it has created worldwide mayhem this year.

民粹主义的自由新年非常欢迎这种市场，它今年已经在世界范围内制造了混乱。

hrryhll
Next year is going to Britain's worst year ever. And I include both world wars.

明年将是英国有史以来最糟糕的一年。不排除世界大战。

Peterd51
don't be daft!

别傻了！

comm-entater
I see inflation coming back to the uk economy no matter what ,,,, increasing interest rates ,,, eventually the eu will back down on the backstop ,, because no way should it be voted through in current form and MAY will probably extend article 50 to get a deal through ,, She should not however hand over any money until a trade deal is finalized

我认为英国经济无论如何都会回归通货膨胀……提高利率……最终欧盟会退到最后的位置，因为（脱欧）不应该以目前的形式投票通过，或许可能会扩展到50章，才能达成协议，然而在贸易协定完成之前，她不应该交出任何资金。

Thatslife
I totally agree. Inflation will come back with vengeance. Nothing to do with brexit. Raw materials and labour rates are increasing fast in the Far East and costs are rising globally. It could be sharp and uncontrollable.

我完全同意。通货膨胀会卷土重来。与英国脱欧无关。远东地区的原材料和劳动力比例增长迅速，全球成本也在上升。这件事可能尖锐且无法控制。

DJ Alison Wonderland
The NWO globalists miss the previous muppet who flew around the world bowing and apologizing all while leading from behind.

新世界秩序的全球主义者们怀念之前的笨蛋，他满世界的飞来飞去，到处鞠躬向所有人道歉，同时在幕后领导一切。

Johnny BeeBad
Look into my eyes ....... look into my eyes ........... I predict the Market 2019 will be turbulent ........ some days down, some days up ....... the same for 2020 and eternity.

看着我的眼睛……看着我的眼睛……我预测2019年市场会出现波动……几天下降，几天上升……2020年也是一样，永远都这样。

Bwana
You are describing climate change.

你说的是气候变化吧。

ladbol52
The whole world, not only America, is certainly being made great again!

不仅是美国，全世界都肯定又变伟大了！

Ron J. Johannesburg
Run Johannesburg Sage of the West, does not see a recession until another couple of years. We are due for another stock market rally at some point before we go into true bear-market mode. But please don't invest your retiremenr based on this advice. Thank you.

经营着约翰内斯堡的西方智者们，要再过好几年才看得见衰退。在进入真正的熊市模式之前，我们将在某个时候迎来另一次股市反弹。但是根据这个建议，请不要把你的退休金投进去。谢谢。

Paul
Who is Trump not at war with now? He has gone through about 2 teams. Has the USA in lock down. Has trade wars going across the world and his only friend is Putin for some reason ?

现在没有跟特朗普打仗的还有谁？他已经经历了大概两个团队。美国不是被封锁了吗？全世界不是在打贸易战吗？他唯一的朋友不就是普京吗？

Paul
97% of the laws and rules passed in the EU were the ones the UK Government backed. We got out of the Euro, working time and other special deals.

欧盟通过的97%的法律规则，英国政府都支持。我们摆脱的是欧元、工作时间和其他特殊待遇。

the Dean
get out of the ecomic corpe they call europe now

赶紧从他们口中的欧洲这个经济死地中走出来。

andy dufresne
The big one is coming.

要出大事啦！

Bwana
Agreed. The media is hell bent on electing another socialist president. When that happens, turn your savings into precious metals because our economy will assuredly tailspin.

同意。这家媒体下定决心选出另一位社会主义总统。如果发生那种事，请把你的积蓄都换成贵金属，因为我们的经济肯定会掉头向下。
​