中国将面临“人口危机” [联合国媒体]

China's population SHRINKSfor the first time in 70 years, despite scrapping its one-child policy -leaving the country facing a 'demographic crisis'

尽管废除独生子女政策 中国人口仍出现七十年来首次萎缩–中国将面临“人口危机”

China's population hasshrunk for the first time in 70 years despite scrapping the controversialone-child policy as experts warn of a 'demographic crisis.'

尽管废除了具有争议的独生子女政策，但中国人口仍然出现70年来的首次萎缩。专家声称，中国出现了“人口危机”。

The world's mostpopulous nation of some 1.4 billion for decades limited most families to onechild in an attempt to keep population growth sustainable.

几十年来，这个拥有14亿人口、世界上人口最多的国家一直限制大多数家庭只有一个孩子，以保持人口可持续增长。

But since 2016 it hasallowed couples to have two children in response to concerns about an ageingsociety and shrinking workforce.

但自2016年以来，出于对老龄化社会和劳动力萎缩的担忧，该国允许一对夫妇生育两个孩子。

Enforced through finesbut notorious for cases of forced abortions and sterilisation, the one-childpolicy caused birth rates to plummet after it was introduced in 1979.

通过罚款、臭名昭着的强制堕胎和绝育，在1979年实施独生子女政策后出生率大幅下降。

Last year marked a'historic turning point for the Chinese population', said Yi, who studiedpublicly available data on births in towns and villages across China.

易富贤曾研究了中国各地城镇和村庄的公开出生数据，他表示“去年对中国人口来说是一个转折点。”

This downward trend maybe irreversible, he cautioned, due to factors such as a decrease in the number ofwomen of childbearing age and the reluctance of couples to have children due torising education, health and housing costs.

他警告道，多种因素或将导致这种人口下行趋势不可逆转，包括中国育龄妇女人口减少以及夫妻因与日俱增的教育、医疗和房价等负担不愿生育等。

Yi's calculations showthat the number of deaths in 2018 was about 11.58 million and the totalpopulation shrank by 1.27 million.

易富贤的计算表明，2018年的死亡人数约为1158万，总人口减少了127万。

'The Chinese populationhas started to decrease for the first time since the founding of New China in1949, the ageing problem has accelerated, and economic vitality has weakened,'he told AFP.

他告诉法新社，中国人口自1949年新中国成立以来首次开始下降，老龄化问题加剧，经济活力减弱。

Yi's findings, due toappear in an upcoming research paper co-authored with Peking Universityeconomist Su Jian, were pieced together from National Health Commissionfigures.

易富贤的研究成果即将发表在与北京大学经济学家苏剑合着的研究论文中，其研究数据部分采用了国家卫生委员会的数据。

In the meantime, datareleased by some local authorities indicate a significant drop in births lastyear.

与此同时，一些地方当局公布的数据显示，去年出生率大幅下降。

Ren Zeping, chiefeconomist at property developer Evergrande Group, wrote in a research note thatChina is walking into a 'demographic crisis' as the easing of the one-childpolicy has failed to boost the country's fertility rate.

恒大地产首席经济学家任泽平在一份研究报告中写道，由于一胎政策的放宽未能提高中国的生育率，中国正步入“人口危机”。

Tracking China'sdemographic changes is difficult as the figures published by the healthcommission and statistics bureau do not always match, said He Yafu, anindependent demographer based in southern Guangdong province.

广东省南部的独立人口统计学家何亚福表示，由于卫生委员会和统计局公布的数据并不总是一致，所以很难追踪中国的人口变化。

But he said Yi'sestimate of the drop in children born in 2018 is likely to be correct.

但他表示，易富贤对2018年出生儿童人数下降的估计可能是正确的。

The number of women ofchildbearing age is expected to fall by more than 39 percent over the nextdecade and China's two-child policy isn't enough to shore up dwindling birthrates, He added.

他补充道，预计未来十年育龄妇女人数下降将超过39％，中国的二胎政策不足以应对不断下降的出生率。

Yi said he was scepticalof the National Bureau of Statistics figures, accusing the organisation of'inflating the number of births' to account for families who may not haveregistered their second, third or fourth child.

易富贤表示，他对国家统计局的数据持怀疑态度，指责该组织“夸大了出生人数”，以解释可能没有登记第二，第三或第四个孩子的家庭。

China's labour force isbecoming smaller as the population greys, putting intense strain on thecountry's fragile pension and healthcare systems.

随着人口老龄化，中国的劳动力人数逐渐减少，给该国脆弱的养老金和医疗保健体系带来了巨大的压力。

For each elderlycitizen, there are seven people who are working and contributing to the socialwelfare system, Yi said - a figure set to shrink to just four by 2030.

易富贤表示，对于每个老年公民来说，有七个人在为社会福利体系工作、做出贡献，到2030年这个数字将缩小到四个人。

'The US economy will notbe overtaken by China, but by India, which has a younger population,' he said. 'China'seconomic vitality will continue to decline, which will bring about a disastrousimpact on the global econ omy.'

他表示，美国经济不会被中国超越，而是被人口构成更为年轻的印度超越。中国的经济活力将继续下降，这将对全球经济造成灾难性的影响。”

Mistrust in MPs
We could always divert the mass of immigrants following in to Europe towardsChina. They will need them there to care for their ageingpopulation............just like we keep getting told here.

我们可以把来到欧洲的大量移民转移到中国。中国需要他们在那里照顾本国的老龄化人口............就像我们之一听到的那样。

trewq
Even with having the world largest population there is so much empty land inChina. I think it proves we are not over populated as a planet. Better fordistribution and there is enough for everyone. The earth is a bountiful place.

即使拥有世界上最多的人口，中国仍有如此多的空土。我认为这证明了我们星球并没有人口过多。资源更适合分配并满足每个人的需求。地球是个富饶的地方啊。

Myopioncounts
I remember years ago when India and China preferred boys to girls, so bothcountries aborted the females. They didn't think that there would be a shortageof females for breeding. There was a programme on TV last year about China andthe young men trying to find a female, but the girls got picky as they couldchoose who they wanted as there's so many males to choose from.

我记得几年前，印度和中国更喜欢男孩而不是女孩，所以两国都将女孩流产。他们认为不会出现雌性繁殖的短缺。去年电视上有一个关于中国的节目，年轻人试图寻求一个女性，但是女孩们变得挑剔，，因为有太多的男性可以选择，她们可以选择自己想要的人。

SW
Surely the long term answer is for tax paid by the current workers to beinvested by Government to fund those people's future pensions. If theGovernment covers the cost of just one generation from existing funds, eachgeneration thereafter can fund it's own future. The birth rate would then notmatter. It needs a change of approach - short term loss for long term gain.

当然，长期的解决办法是由现有工作者缴税，由政府进行投资，为这些人的未来养老提供资金。如果政府只从现有基金中支付一代人的生活成本，那么此后的每一代人都可以为自己的未来提供资金。这样出生率就不再重要了。它需要改变方式-将短期损失转变为长期收益。

rabbit38
My god make up your mind! You either want population growth or you don't!

上帝替你做了决定！你要么想要人口增长，要么不想！

SMcA
Best news I've read for years ....seriously ! As the world population grows nowby one billion every 12-13 years, overpopulation is the greatest threat to theworld.

我多年来读过的最佳新闻......真的！世界人口每12、13年增加10亿，人口过剩是对世界的最大威胁。

atjen66
The Chinese are obsessed with having a Male heir that they will abort femalefoetus even though it is against the law. There are 1.7 men to every women inChina a according to the last census.

中国人热衷于拥有一个男性做继承人，即使违法，他们也会将女性胎儿流产。根据上一次人口普查，中国每有1名女性就有1.7名男性。

rabbit38 -> atjen66
Exactly. And that is precisely why feminism is and was needed world over.

确实。这正是世界各地存在和需要女权主义的原因。

geezer_661
Yeah right

是的，没错

Dickypimms
China now has a far better standard of living than India.

中国现在的生活水平远高于印度。

Dave Jonnaz
Well they decided that if they could only have one child it would be a boy.Where did they think the next generation was going to come from, the stork?

好吧，如果他们只让一个男孩作为自己的孩子。那么他们觉得下一代将来自哪里，鹳？

BeanoBaxter
This is excellent news for the planet and wildlife in China. Hope it sparks aglobal trend.

这对中国的地区和野生动物来说是个好消息。希望它能引发全球潮流。

Kim Jong-uns Stylist
Made worse by the many rich Chinese leaving the country for good.

更糟糕的是，许多富裕的中国人离开了这个国家。

benidormchica
There will be even less population as there are not enough girls to be thefuture mothers .....Mostly males which gives every female HER PICK OF THEBEST....LOL...

因为在未来，没有足够的女孩以成为母亲，那么人口会更少……人口大多数是男性，这让每一个女性都可以做自己最好的选择……哈哈……

rabbit38 -> benidormchica
The males have literally screwed the selves! Patriarchy lol

男人们真的把自己搞砸了！父权制 哈哈

benidormchica
One child policy for a couple of decades .....For every ONE child there wereSIX adults..mum dad and four grandparents...Of course there will be moreelderly than young I can work that out on my fingers dont need an addingmachine .

几十年的独生子女政策……使得每一个孩子就有六个成年人……爸爸妈妈和四个祖父母……当然会有比年轻人更多的老人，我可以不用计算器，用手指就可以计算出来。

clouddreamer
The world will be a more pleasant place to live with fewer people. Instead ofcalling China's declining population a crisis we should use that term forIndia's runaway numbers.

若世界拥有更少的人口，将会变成一个更宜人的地方。因此我们应该将“人口危机”用于印度人口增加的失控，而不是用于中国人口的下降。

perry. -> clouddreamer
Andextreme poverty for the aged as to few people are working to pay the taxes thatpay for their old age pension and in china that is not a lot already.

由于工作的人为他们将来老去的养老金缴纳税款，在中国极度贫穷的老年人已经不多了。

illbill -> clouddreamer
perry - no it won't, the chinese are automating a lot of work like a lot ofother well led countries (Japan, Switzerland), that increases efficiency andGDP, so they don't need such a large labour force. Meanwhile the UK is way downthe list of OECD countries utilising automation and consequently has lower GDPand imports cheap labour to keep wages in the UK low, which is good forbusiness in question in the short term but a false economy for the UK as awhole as we have to pay these workers pensions in the future and all associatedsocietal costs like tax credits, health etc. At some point in the future the UKwill have to start automating more to compete and so we will be left with an evenhigher level of unemployed workers, who will unlikely to ever work again due tothe acceleration of automation and machine learning.

在未来的某个时候，英国将不得不开始更多的自动化竞争，因此我们将留下更高的失业工人的水平，由于自动化和机器学习的加速，他们不太可能再次工作。
不，不会的，中国人像其他许多领先的国家（日本、瑞士）一样大量实现了自动化工作，提高了效率和GDP，所以他们不需要如此庞大的劳动力。与此同时，英国在经合组织（OECD）中实现自动化的国家名单中排名靠后，因此，英国的国内生产总值（GDP）较低，进口廉价劳动力以保持英国的低工资水平，这在短期内对企业有利，但对整个英国来说是一个虚假经济体，因为我们必须在未来支付这些工人的养老金以及所有相关的社会成本。像税收抵免、健康等。在未来的某个时候，英国将不得不实行更多的自动化以应对竞争，因此我们将面临更多的失业工人，由于自动化和机器学习的加速发展，他们不太可能再工作。

wiszipro
Well, seems couple no longer wants kids or are deliberately delaying childbearing. All the same they are still one of the most populated country though.

嗯，似乎夫妇不再想要孩子，或故意延迟生育。尽管如此，他们仍然是人口最多的国家之一。

susieg357
Perhaps it's because China has taken over much of Africa.

也许是因为中国接管了非洲的大部分地区。

Happy Boomer
That's what happens when you educate people.

这就是当你教育人们时会发生的事情。

Iskra13
All other things being equal, this trend - and it's not just in China - wouldbe very worrying, but it ignores the transformational effects that arebeginning to be felt from artificial intelligence, robotics, nanotechnology andthe future promise of quantum computing and even limitless energy from nuclearfusion. There are more reasons to be optimistic about the future than there arereasons to be pessimistic.

所有事物都是平等的，这一趋势（不仅仅出现在中国）将是非常令人担忧的，但它忽略了人工智能、机器人、纳米技术以及量子计算的未来前景，甚至是核聚变产生的无限能量所带来的变革效应。我们有更多的理由对未来持乐观态度。

thirteen463
That's all right. They can all move to Europe and the US. We let anybody in asmoney grows on trees here....

没关系。他们都可以搬到欧洲和美国。当钱长在树上时，我们可以让任何人进来…

Honesti
I did my dissertation on this!! I concluded that the 2 child policy will failand unless they stopped all fertility control, it will never change. Also, allheihaizi (unwanted/ 2nd children) need to be given citizenship immediately!That would drastically boost their population. Since most heihaizi are girls,it will help with the gender imbalance too. I mean, the above won't fix all ofchina's problems but it's a start!

我做了这方面的论文！我的结论是，二胎政策将失败，除非他们停止所有的生育控制，否则情况将永远不会改变。此外，所有黑户孩子（不需要的/第二个孩子）都需要立即获得公民身份！这将大大增加他们的人口。因为大多数黑户孩子都是女孩，这也有助于解决性别失衡问题。我的意思是，以上这些虽然并不能解决中国所有的问题，但这是一个开始！

Texas CountryGirl
It destroyed extended families. Not only no siblings, but after one generation,no aunts, uncles, or cousins.

它（独生子女政策）摧毁了大家庭。使得人们不仅没有兄弟姐妹，而且在一代人之后，没有姑姑、叔叔或堂兄弟姐妹。

Dutchnick
It will get worse very quickly. Though the 1 child policy has been reversed thepopulation have got used to one child. Not easy to reverse.

情况会很快恶化。尽管独生子女政策已经被撤销，但人们已经习惯了一个孩子。这是不容易逆转的。

Mustafa Leak
The lower birth rate is hardly going to make a dent in the population

较低的出生率很难使人口减少。

PrisonPlanet1
Hmm...well that happens when you deliberately get rid of so many of your girlsso there aren't enough for men to marry. And the ones who are left would ratherflock to cities for an education. Too bad China.

嗯......好吧，当你故意除掉这么多女孩时，以致使男女比例失衡，男性无法结婚。剩下的人宁愿聚集到城市接受教育。中国太糟糕了。

Free born john
That's why China is becoming richer

这就是中国变得更加富裕的原因

fewella
Well, what did they expect? They terminated pregnancies because they were girls,killed them when they were born and locked them away in orphanages. When themen out number the women there will be a drop in pregnancy. Plus all the othereconomic problems.

嗯，他们期待什么？他们将女婴流产，在她们出生时将她们杀死，将她们锁在孤儿院里。
当男性人数超过女性人数时，怀孕率就会下降。还会导致所有其他的经济问题。

BarbieWorld444
Good. Too many people in China.

好。中国人太多了。

SeaCarrot
Good. The world desperately needs China's population to decline.

棒。 世界迫切需要中国人口下降。

PCnutsUK
All over Europe

遍布欧洲

woMit
Nine years early. It has been predicted for some years that the chinapopulation would decrease. The decline has started

早了九年。多年来，人们一直预测中国人口会减少。衰退已经开始

The road to nowhere
This is what is needed theWorld over if we are to make life on Earth sustainable. Over and expandingpopulation is the major cause of our problems, whether pollution, resources orovercrowding.

如果我们要让地球上的生命可持续发展，人口减少是必要的。无论是污染，资源还是过度拥挤，人口过剩和增长都是造成这些问题的主要原因。

Shaznay666
So when they had increasing population, DM said it was a"CRISIS"..now its going down to sustainable levels, it's a"CRISIS"... its always crisis is't it!!

所以，当人口增加时，DM说这是一场“危机”……现在下降到了可持续的水平，这仍是一场“危机”……总是有危机，不是吗？！

Newjohn
Why is it a crisis we can not keep increasing our population

为什么我们无法继续增加人口就是一场危机呢？

Gypsumweed
Since China did not award citizenship to second , third , fourth etc childrenno one will ever know the population of China.

由于中国没有授予第二，第三，第四等儿童公民身份，所以没有人会知道中国的人口。

disgruntled
Yes it will be hard for a while with all the elderly, but breeding more to takecare of them will only make matters worse in the long run. Our numbers need tofall. Tough it out, for mankinds & animals sake.

的确，对于所有的老年人来说，这将是一段艰难的时期，但是从长远来看，多养育后代来照顾他们只会使事情变得更糟。我们的人口需要下降。为了人类和动物们，坚强起来。

MacDuff
If you had the money to pay the fines you could always have more than one childin China.

如果你有足够的钱来支付罚款，那么你在中国通常不止只有一个孩子。

AngieW114
Excuse me? Demographic crisis? China? Maybe in a century from now. At themoment there are still plenty chinese out there!

什么？人口危机？中国？也许得一个世纪呢。现在中国人还是很多的。

LondonAchilles
Don't we want their population to get smaller. They are, by far, the largestpolluter in the world, responsible for 21% of world carbon emissions (comparedwith the UK which is 1%)

我们难道不希望他们的人口变少吗？到目前为止，他们是世界上最大的污染源，占世界碳排放量的21%（相比之下，英国为1%）。

perry. -> LondonAchilles
Their population is also 21 times bigger then that of the UK ,so basically theUK is just as polluting as china if compared on a person by person basis.

他们的人口也比英国多21倍，所以基本上，英国的污染程度与中国相当。

SpongeBobroundpants
That's the consequences for hundreds of years of treating the female populationwith contempt by illing them off. The storage of females for each male is thelikely the decline for China's population. Conclusion: Serve you right China!

这就是数百年来对女性的蔑视所造成的后果。男女比例不均可能是造成中国人口下降的原因。结论：中国活该！

Laowai
What fragile welfare system??

什么脆弱的福利制度？

CanOfWorms
When i was a lad population china was 950 Million. Even with the one childpolicy for many decades, their population has still grown by half a billion inmy adulthood. Well that population control policy obviously worked then ????

当我还是个少年的时候，中国有9.5亿人口。即使实行了几十年的独生子女政策，他们的人口在我成年后仍然增长了5亿。那么，人口控制政策效果明显？？？？？

lets sort it out
They should consider taking in refugees to boost the population.

他们应该考虑吸收难民以增加人口。

gruesteve -> lets sort it out
It will never happen.

它永远不会发生。

benidormchica -> lets sort it out
They do have ethnic minorities usually other asians ...

他们确实有少数民族，并且一般是其他亚洲人......

DaveBlunksDog
I demand a recount

我要求重新计算