FC-31能够加入巴基斯坦空军下一代战机的选型计划中吗？ [巴基斯坦媒体]

With the Shenyang Aircraft Corporation (SAC) FC-31 progressing, most notably with the maiden flight of its second prototype, the question of whether China’s new platform will figure into the Pakistan Air Force’s (PAF) next-generation fighter plans has returned to the fore. The known answer has not changed: the PAF is currently in the process of conceptualizing and forming its next-generation solution, and thus, it has not issued its desired configuration, much less selecting a platform.

随着沈飞公司FC-31项目的推进，尤其是最近第二架原型机首飞之后，最主要的问题重新回到了中国的这个新平台是否会加入到到巴空军下一代战机的选型计划上来。有一件不变的事实是世所公知的：那就是巴空军对于下一代战斗机仍处于构想和形成概念的阶段，故而并没有什么意向配置流出，更遑论选定五代机平台了。

Before venturing further into the question, it will be worth re-visiting what the PAF, especially the Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Sohail Aman, has stated regarding next-generation aircraft. In this respect, there are two key facets: First, in conceptualizing a solution, Aman stressed that the PAF will need to look beyond the capabilities and systems on offer in fifth-generation designs. It is not clear what ACM Aman meant in this statement, but it appears that he was advocating for the inclusion of emerging technologies, especially at the abstract level. Second, ACM Aman outlined that indigenization will be a key facet of the PAF’s next-generation fighter plans. From expanding the JF-17’s industry and technology base to finally making a concrete and directed effort in aviation research and development (through the Kamra Aviation City initiative), ACM Aman wanted Pakistan to “no longer be dependent on few sources to again ask for next-generation aircraft.” Third, there is urgency in bringing a next-generation solution to fruition, especially since the older F-16s (and, in due time, older JF-17s) will need to be replaced.

在深入探讨这个问题之前，我们有必要先来回顾一下巴空军，尤其是巴空军参谋长，Sohail Aman上将关于五代机的表述。在这个问题上主要有两个方面有所侧重：首先，关于这一整套解决方案，Aman着重强调了巴空军将充分展望五代机的性能和作战体系，这句话虽然意义难明， 但是很清楚的一点是Aman是新技术的积极拥护者，尤其是在一些较为先进的层面上；其次，Aman大致勾勒出了一个目标，即立足本土化，这将会是巴空军五代机计划的关键方向。从JF-17（即“枭龙”）的工业技术基础上延展开去，最终对巴基斯坦航空工业的研究发展起到良好的导向作用（即通过自主建造卡姆拉航空城），Aman上将力图使得巴基斯坦“不再需要向少数的几个来源国求购五代机”。第三，对于下一代战斗机的服役，巴空军有着紧迫的需求，尤其是在老旧的F16/JF17需要被替换之时。

The PAF’s desire for indigenization could lead one to believe that an original design is being sought. This is a possible scenario, though it would necessitate considerable time and financial investment, neither of which are plentiful to the PAF. Its oldest F-16s are nearing 8,000 service hours (i.e. the guaranteed lifespan), and currently, there are no service life extension programs (SLEP) in place for Block-15 airframes. The PAF will need a new medium-weight fighter to begin supplanting the F-16A/Bs from the 2030s. The pursuit of an original design, even with collaborative support from China, would not be a factor by the time the PAF’s oldest F-16s need to be replaced. In this respect, the SAC FC-31 could fit within the PAF’s procurement timeline quite well. Although it is unclear if Beijing is now investing in the FC-31 as the sole backer (i.e. negating the previous need for an outside funding partner from the program), the Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) aims to bring the FC-31 into full operational capability (FOC) status by the mid-2020s.

巴空军力图本土化的愿望或将致使他们去寻找一种可供选择的原始设计（而非成品）。纵使巴空军缺乏必要的资金和时间，但这仍将会是一个可能性极高的方案。此时，老旧的F-16已经服役了将近8000小时，且并没有关于Block-15批次机体的延寿计划。到30年代时，巴空军需要一种全新的中型战斗机去替代F-16A/B。等到了这些最早批次的F-16需要被替换的时候，寻求原始设计，和中国联合生产这些东西恐怕早就不是什么主要的因素了。从这个方面上说，沈飞公司的FC-31恰逢其时，尽管北京方面作为其唯一的资金来源，投资意向尚不明确，但中航工业仍然力求在20年代中叶将FC-31打造成一种全方位作战的机型。

The promise of the FC-31 – which aims to offer prospective users an agile airframe with a small radar cross-section (RCS), advanced electronically-scanned array (AESA) radar, modern electronic warfare (EW) and electronic countermeasures (ECM) suite, helmet-mounted display and sight (HMD/S) system, an infrared search and track (IRST) system, and even integrated electro-optical targeting (EOTS) system – is a significant jump over the F-16A/B Block-15 Mid-Life Update (MLU) variants in use by the PAF. Granted, one might question the extent or quality of sensor fusion on the FC-31 (e.g. binding the AESA radar and active phased-array based EW/ECM arrays to a single software engine), but there are clear generational upgrades in many respects between the F-16 MLU and FC-31. Furthermore, considering Beijing’s extensive investment in electronics, which is evident in its ability to push AESA radar solutions for many naval and airborne applications, the idea of sufficiently useful sensor fusion (not “the best”) is plausible.

FC-31的长期愿景是——一款全新的具备较小雷达散射截面（低RCS），装备有源相控阵雷达（AESA），集成现代电子战（ES）和先进对抗系统（ECM），随后还有下一代头盔瞄准系统（HMD/S），安装有前视红外搜索系统（IRST），甚至可以集成光电瞄准系统（EOTS）的新型多用途战斗机，一种超过了巴空军使用的F-16 Block-15 MLU版的中型战斗机。即便是对于FC-31上各型传感器的整合程度尚不清楚，但是它和F-16 MLU之间仍将会有一个清晰的代差。再者，考虑到北京方面对于电子设备尤其是在海军和空军的应用方面持续而广泛的投资，FC-31的航电整体达到“好用”的级别（而不是“最好”）确实像是真实可行的。

With its ability to carry a payload of 8,000 kg across four internal and six external hardpoints, the FC-31 is a natural bridge from the F-16, retaining the latter’s base air-to-air and air-to-ground capabilities. To put it another way, the FC-31 can enable the PAF to maintain continuity in the roles it currently delegates to the F-16s. The FC-31 can also extend its utility in key areas. For example, unlike the F-16, the PAF is free to integrate the FC-31 with its choice of stand-off range weapons, most notably anti-ship missiles (AShM) and air-launched cruise missiles (ALCM). If the FC-31 fulfills its potential, it would be a qualitative driver.

有着包含四个内挂点和六个外挂点总计八吨的最大挂载使得FC-31比之F-16有着天然的优势，其功能已经包含了后者所拥有的空空/空地性能。换句话说，FC-31可以完全取代F-16目前在巴空军中的地位。FC-31还能在许多关键领域发挥其优越性，比如，不像F-16，巴空军能够自由的将FC-31发射防区外武器尤其是反舰导弹和空射巡航导弹的能力整合到作战体系中。如果FC-31充分挖掘其潜力，它将会引起巴空军作战能力的质变。

When considering the above as well as a known timeline, mature developmental stage, and supplier, the notion of the PAF being a strong contender for procuring the FC-31 is not surprising. In terms of the PAF’s desire for indigenization, procuring the FC-31 need not be mutually exclusive from the indigenization effort. Yes, the PAF would have to depend on China for the supply of the platform and technology, but that could yield a measure of valuable domestic support for the fighter.

考虑到巴空军所拥有的清晰的时间表，成熟的开发平台以及供应商等因素，就不难理解巴空军为何回事FC-31项目最有力的买家了。就算是考虑到巴空军的本土化意愿，采购FC-31也无需与之相排斥。诚然，巴空军将不得不依赖于中国的平台和技术支持，但这些事情都要让位于这些飞机带来的国家利益上的支持。

Critical elements, such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO), ought to be expected, but the existing production base could be expanded to involve the local production of spare parts and subsystems. Interestingly, Pakistan Aeronautical Complex (PAC), which provides the PAF with MRO support as well as the JF-17 (via a co-production workshare agreement with AVIC), is interested in gas turbine production. If activated, this route could lead PAC into deeper turbofan engine support work.

一些包含不利因素的方面，比如维护，修理，翻新等等，也应当被充分估计到，现有的设施将会被扩展成一个生产包括备用件和子系统在内的本土化生产基地。有趣的是，巴基斯坦航空联合体（为包括JF-17在内的巴空军提供后勤保障的公司），也有意于燃气轮机的生产。如果这条线能够被打通，那么必将使得其对涡轮风扇发动机的技术保障达到新的高度。

Considering the investment made in the JF-17 Thunder, it would be disingenuous to assume that the PAF would walk away from the platform in the foreseeable future. To the contrary, one should expect the PAF to continue backing the development of the JF-17. The presence of another platform, such as the FC-31, removes the pressure of offensive and/or long-endurance operations from the JF-17, freeing the Thunder for its intended purpose as a workhorse fighter for defending the country’s airspace and territory. If put in a defensive role, a fighter with significant local support, low costs, and high operational availability can be an immense asset. This ought to be the JF-17 Thunder’s next step.

考虑到已经在JF-17“雷电”上的投资，我们大可做一个无责任的猜想，那就是在可以预见的将来，巴空军或许会脱离这个平台，而不是像某些人想象的那样依然停留在JF-17的开发上。诸如FC-31这种新平台的出现，能够大大降低JF-17身上背负的进攻/长航时任务的压力，将其从一个肩负国土防空重任的角色中解脱出来。如果将其作为一个防御者的角色，那么一个拥有本地后勤保障，低造价和高可操作性的战机将会是一笔巨大的财富。这才是
JF-17“雷电”下一步应该做的。

This is not a discussion regarding the forthcoming JF-17 Block-III, but a later (and, to be clear, hypothetical) variant. Investment in the FC-31 could be tied to extending its technology to the Thunder. For example, besides a similar onboard electronics suite and munitions inventory, the future JF-17 could utilize the WS-13E turbofan, which – as per some analysts – powers the second FC-31 prototype. Smokeless exhaust and a higher thrust rating would be welcome additions to the JF-17. In parallel, indigenous efforts could be made to improve the airframe, and in the process, gradually build competency in a few critical areas, such as composite aerostructures and flight control. This would be a long-term effort, but it can align with the PAF’s call for indigenization in next-generation aircraft. The future Thunder that could replace the current Thunder in the PAF fleet two decades from now could potentially reflect that effort.

这里并不是在讨论即将到来的JF-17 Block-III批次，却也和它的后续改进有关。在FC-31上的投资将会很大程度上将其衍生的技术应用在“雷电”上。比如说，除了相似的航电系统和火力配备之外，正如一些分析家所言，未来JF-17也会配备FC-31第二台原型机上所装备的涡扇-13E发动机。无烟排气和更高的额定推力使其的它加入到JF-17上将会是一个很好的选择。同时，本土化效应同样会提升机体结构强度，并且在过程中，逐渐建立在一些关键点，诸如机体布局和飞控等领域的制造能力。这种长期效应与巴空军对于本土化的呼吁不谋而合。未来的新“雷电”将会取代其旧有版本并在巴空军继续服役二十年，这也从侧面印证了这种效应的潜在优点。

The SAC FC-31 deserves consideration, but it would be premature, at least today, to argue that the PAF will certainly select the platform. However, as the platform develops, it would be difficult to see another scenario, especially since the FC-31 is among a scarcely few next-generation platforms in development, and among three to be on the market in the 2020s (the others being the F-35 and Sukhoi T-50). Beijing moving to back the program alone would be key to its success, and considering the dearth of options on the market for non-NATO air arms, it would be surprising to see Beijing leave AVIC to develop the fighter on its own or to depend on an external funding source. When options are scarce, the market has shown its willingness to embrace analogous Chinese solutions. This was seen in the armed drone space. The FC-31 could be a defining product for the Chinese aviation industry, one Beijing would be wise to support.

沈飞公司的FC-31理应得到关注，但目前为止，对于巴空军即将选择的五代机平台来说，她还只能算是个早产儿。然而，它依然是一个难寻他处的选择，尤其是在二十年代在公开市场出售的几款机型（其他的则是F-35和苏霍伊T-50）当中，FC-31是不多见的尚待开发的五代机平台。北京方面的推动将会是这个计划成败的关键，考虑到非北约成员国空军市场上稀缺的选项，北京方面能够让中航工业自主或是藉由外部资金开发确实是一个令人惊喜的选择。这种效应已经在军用无人机领域充分展现。而FC-31也将作为中国航空工业的下一款拳头产品，或将获得北京的支持。

注释1——卡姆拉空军基地，坐落在伊斯兰堡西南65千米处的卡姆拉一米哈斯空军基地是巴基斯坦最重要的空军基地之一，负责保卫伊斯兰堡的空域安全。它在印巴军事对峙中起到了关键性作用，也是JF-17"雷电"战斗机的主要生产基地所在地。
注释2——JF-17，即FC-1“枭龙”战斗机，是中巴双方共同投资、中国航空工业集团公司成都飞机工业(集团)有限责任公司、成都飞机设计研究所、中国航空技术进出口公司等单位共同研制，按照市场经济规律运作、巴基斯坦空军参与开发的全天候、单发、单座、多用途轻型战斗机。枭龙战机是世界上第一种投入服役的使用DSI进气道的第四代战斗机。该机首飞后，中方正式命名为“枭龙”/FC-1，巴方命名为“Thunder”/JF-17。
注释3——MLU，Middle-Life Update,即F-16的一个中期改进型号，MLU计划开始于1991年，到1997年升级完全部战机。MLU的改装十分繁琐，由于这些F-16已经服役了10年，机体结构可能出现裂纹，所以首先要进行机身结构探伤，确定隔框没有裂纹。然后探伤合格的飞机被重新组装，更换线材以等待进一步改装。MLU改装的重头是电子设备，雷达换成APN/APG-66(V2),新的模块计算机，APG-111(V1)敌我识别系统、宽视场抬头显示器（HUD）、两个10cmx 10cm彩色液晶显示器、侧杆操控系统、数字地图系统、GPS卫星定位仪等。经过这些现代化改装，F-16MLU的性能达到F-16C/D的水平。
注释4——Block-XX,对于飞机生产批次的一种说法。
注释5——巴基斯坦航空联合体（PAC），巴基斯坦航空联合体是巴基斯坦最重要的航空企业。负责其现役几个主要作战机型的生产和维修，以及航电系统的开发与生产。







maximuswarrior
Wednesday at 3:18 PM
Not a shred of doubt. FC-31 is the future of the PAF.

毋庸置疑，FC-31将会成为巴基斯坦空军的未来。

I S I
Wednesday at 3:37 PM
Hope this project doesn't disappoint.

希望这个计划不会让失望。

Muhammad Omar
Wednesday at 3:40 PM
Do we have any other Single Option Available then J-31? NO
TFX is gonna take almost a Decade
South Korean one is just in Pictures nothing on Ground
We Can't buy F-35
J-20 is not for Sale...
J-31 and J-11D really wish to see these in PAF

除了J-31之外我们有的选择吗？
TFX遥遥无期。
韩国的还停留在纸面上。
我们买不到F-35。
J-20不外卖。
J-31和J-11D最有希望进入巴空军服役。

pakistanipower
Wednesday at 4:07 PM
The only option left is FC-31

FC-31是唯一的选择。

New World
Wednesday at 4:29 PM 
What if NGF is will be a 4.5++ gen fighter...
i think F-60 will come to Pakistan but after another 4.5 gen fighter...
So F-60 will come after 2020-22..

如果下一代战斗机只是四代半加呢？
我认为F-60将会在另一款四代半之后再加入巴基斯坦军队。

pakistanipower
Wednesday at 4:44 PM 
What is F-60 sir you mean FC-31 AKA J-31?

F-60？你是在说FC-31或J-31的别称吧。

New World
Wednesday at 4:46 PM 
Yes sir, F-60 is the name of FC-31 AKA J-31 for Western World..

是的，F-60也是西方世界对FC-31或J-31的别称。

CriticalThought
Wednesday at 4:48 PM
In my humble opinion, the only way forward is the continuous merging of TFX technologies as and when they become available into FC-31. From wikipedia, here are some things we can look at Wikipedia.

依我看，唯一的方法就是继续吸收TFX项目中的技术同时也尽可能的参与FC-31项目。从维基百科里可以看到一些相关介绍。

pakistanipower
Wednesday at 4:49 PM
their less chance to get 4.5++ generation jets, anyhow their is 50/50 chance that we will get Su-35 or typhoon, and don't forget MIG-35 is also a good option

他们恐怕太多机会获得四代半战机，不管怎样苏-35和台风依然是有机会，而且不要忘了米格-35也是个不错的选择。

New World
Wednesday at 4:54 PM
how about J-11D？

歼-11D怎么样？

pakistanipower
Wednesday at 4:54 PM
not possible sir because it design is based on Su-27, China will not sell J-11D without permission from Russia, its Russian intellectual property

不太可能，因为其源自苏-27，中国除非得到俄罗斯的许可否则不能出售，俄罗斯有知识产权。

Godman
Wednesday at 5:24 PM 
There is a possibility that PAF will be the first customer for Chinese 5th gen fighters due to various reasons.
Security and stability of Pakistan is vital for Chinese interests as well.

从这些理由上来看巴基斯坦很有可能是中国五代机的第一个海外用户。巴基斯坦的安全与稳定对于中国的国家利益同样是至关重要的。

volatile
Wednesday at 5:36 PM 
IMO PAF evolvement in future will be
1. JF17 - locally designed 5th Gen single engine
2. F16 - J31 quite a strong candidate
3. 3rd Type - Real dark horse but TFX/F35 (big if) so 3rd options are little way word
This is in line with ACM comments ,From East to West we are looking for options

在我看来巴空军未来的组成将会是
1.JF-17-本地设计并配备五代发动机。
2.F-16-，当然J-31也是强力候选。
3.第三种机型，真正的黑马，TFX或F-35，不过现在只有只言片语。
这就是空军上将评论中的重点，从东方到西方，我们要有多种选择。

monitor
Wednesday at 5:43 PM 
If you want parity of IAF there are no could FC-31 is the must and only option available to PAF, other options are all in still in design stage.

对于巴基斯坦空军来说没有除了FC-31之外没有别的选择，其他计划还停留在设计层面。

New World
Wednesday at 5:53 PM
if there is a chance of Su-35 from Russia than why would russia object to J-11D?
as per sources J-11D is much more indigenous than Tejas.

如果有机会买到苏-35那俄罗斯还为什么要反对歼-11D，歼-11D可比光辉战机独立自主的多了。

Waqkz
Wednesday at 10:02 PM 
We must still be a part of the Turish TFX program even if we choose FC-31, the development experience alone would help us ten folds.

即使我们选择了FC-31，我们依然要成为TFX计划的一员，独自研发的经验对于我们来说很重要。

MarvellousThunder@PDC
Wednesday at 11:45 PM 
Now read carefuly
PAF must get FC-31 by 2025 in a total nuber of 56. These will give us the best possible counter of rafale ,MKI and S-400 . When we talk about 4.5++ then the options available dont satisfy the above 3 factors altogether (RAFALE,MKI,S-400) . Rafale has very low RCS , lower than typhoon and SU-35/J-11D . So in bvr , RAFALE WOULD HAVE much edge over any avalable option . FC-31 has less RCS than any any fighter india intend to get . And it is a matter of time that by 2025-26 india will start recieving PAK-FA(FGFA) as the project is is boosted again now 2 months again. S-400 is a threat to 4.5++ platforms but less threat to 5th gen platform. We have only FC-31 as option by 2025 so we must get 3 squadrons . Second point i that we must also participate in TFX programs , remember that TFX has 3 versions , twin engine , delta and single . ACM's words that we must do effort ourselves so by participating in TFX , our enigneers will get to learn very much plus we will have production license and facility of TFX at home so we can also make good business. TFX sngle engine must be the focus of PAF to make in home and start replacing every F-16 and by 2040 we will have a fleet of 110 TFX , 56 FC-31 , 250 THUNDERS.

巴基斯坦空军必须在2025年获得56架FC-31，这将是我们回击阵风，苏-30MKI和S-400的利器，我们讨论的任何四代半战机都无法胜任这个工作。阵风同样有着比台风和苏-35/J-11D更低的雷达散射面积。故而在超视距打击上，阵风比我们的其他任何战机都要凌厉。FC-31有着比印度能获得的任何战机都更低的雷达散射面积。更重要的一点是印度将在2025-26年开始接受第一批 PAK-FA(FGFA) 。S-400对于四代半同样是个大威胁，但是对于五代机则会小很多。第二点是我们也应该参加TFX项目，注意TFX有三个版本，双发，三角翼，和单发。通过将军的话我们可以得知我们必须参与TFX计划，我们的工程师也要学很多东西，如果拿到本土生产的许可那将又会是件大好事。TFX的单发版本将会由巴基斯坦本土生产并且在2040年前后取代F-16，届时我们将会拥有110架TFX , 56架FC-31 , 250架雷电。

pakistanipower
Wednesday at 11:54 PM 
Design wise sir avionics, radar sensor are Chinese, but design is still Russian and why you bring Tejas in this discussion

航电和雷达组件是中国产的，整体设计依然是俄罗斯的。还有。把光辉拉进来干嘛？

sady
Yesterday at 12:36 AM 
Lol about tejas. 

哈哈，光辉战机。

pakistanipower
Yesterday at 12:44 AM 
Skip TFX sir it wont come in 2025, i think it prouctions will begin in 2028-2030

然而2025年并不会有TFX，我认为它的量产至少要到2028-2030年。

BRITISH
Yesterday at 1:45 AM 
fc 31 not bad option and more important our dependencies rather we depend Russia or USA

FC-31是一个不错的选项，更重要的是我们不能依赖俄罗斯和美国。

Rafi
Yesterday at 1:57 AM
IMO the FC31 is on the way, PAF is playing coy but they have the inside track on the bird, and are mightily impressed.
Initially will be purchased outright, but PAF are looking for indigenously manufacturing it.

在我看来FC-31已经在路上了，巴空军虽未明确表态但是他们已经在寻求这型飞机了。
最初将会是购买，但是巴空军会逐步寻求本土制造。

MarvellousThunder@PDC
Yesterday at 4:40 AM 
it wont come till 2030...i m saying get it after 2-3- while get fc31 brfore 2025

它不会再2030年完成，我认为可以在2025年之前获得FC-31。

The SC
Yesterday at 5:15 AM 
ISLAMABAD: The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) has expressed interest in procuring fourth generation stealth fighter aircraft FC-31 from China.
Nov 22, 2014
The Jane’s Defence Weekly had quoted an unnamed Pakistani official as saying that the PAF was holding talks with China for the purchase of 30 to 40 of the Shenyang FC-31 fighter planes and that discussions had gone beyond initial inquiries.

伊斯兰堡：巴基斯坦空军表现出了其对采购中国五代机FC-31的意愿。
2014年九月22日的简氏防务周刊援引了一位不愿透露姓名的巴基斯坦官员的话说巴空军正在与中国就购买30到40架沈阳FC-31战斗机展开磋商，讨论结果超出预期。

New World
Yesterday at 10:16 AM 
same as J-7 to Mig-21.. 
i think Russian don't want to lose india by giving Pakistan Su-35..

就像是歼-7和米格-21。
我认为俄罗斯人不想因为给了巴基斯坦苏-35而失去印度。

Pertama
Yesterday at 10:23 AM 
FC-31 is a good choice for Pakistan AF.
As I know, there is only 3 countries, USA, Russia and China can develop 5th stealth fighters now. Japan, India, South Korea, ... just write PPTs.

FC-31对于吧空军来说是一个好机会。
据我所知，只有美、俄、中三国目前能开发五代机。日本，印度，韩国等国都只不过是在写PPT。

wanglaokan
Yesterday at 1:38 PM 
PAF will have chance to exercise with Su35 soon as the the first batch of 4 units had been delivered to China on 25th December.

巴基斯坦空军将会有机会与圣诞节到货中国的四架苏-35合练。