【资料汇总】“惩罚者”杜特尔，在菲律宾的成就中扮演什么角色 [菲律宾媒体]

Manila — President Rodrigo Duterte’s two years in office in the Philippines have been marred by controversy, but with one big success: a booming economy. The jury is still out if that is because, or in spite, of him.

马尼拉 - 总统罗德里戈·杜特尔特（Rodrigo Duterte）在菲律宾任职两年，一直受到争议的影响，但取得了一大成功：经济蓬勃发展。而即使是（因为）有了他，菲律宾依旧没有陪审团……

The brash, 73-year-old leader — nicknamed The Punisher when he was a crime-busting town mayor for two decades — has led an antidrug war that’s killed thousands of people, been labelled a misogynist, angered Catholics with his blasphemous statements and sidelined some of his enemies.

这位勇敢的，73岁的领导人 - 绰号“惩罚者”——当年他是一座被匪徒毁灭的小镇的镇长，二十年里带起一场长久的反毒品战争，造成数千人死亡，被称为厌恶女性主义者，用亵渎神明的言论激怒了天主教徒和驱赶了一些他的敌人（政敌）

Yet an economy growing at more than 6% and rising incomes have helped keep his popularity intact.

然而，经济增长率超过6％且收入增加维护了他的声望……

He’s pushed through a tax reform plan, poured money into a nine-trillion peso ($170bn) programme to build roads and railways, added jobs and kept growth momentum going.

他推行了一项税收改革计划，将资金投入到9万亿比索（1700亿美元）的计划中，以建设公路和铁路，增加就业机会并保持增长势头。

The remaining time of his single six-year term in office will be more challenging. The economy’s outlook is turning sour as inflation surges to a five-year high, investors dump the nation’s stocks and the currency hits a 12-year low against the dollar. That’s not to mention mounting global risks, such as a US-China trade war and rising interest rates.

他剩余的六年任期将更具挑战性。随着通胀飙升至五年来的高位，投资者抛售该国的股票，该货币兑美元触及12年来的低点，经济前景正在转变。更不用说日益增加的全球风险，例如美中贸易战和利率上升。

As Duterte enters his third year in office, here’s a look at how his administration has performed on some key indicators.

随着杜特尔特进入他执政的第三年，这里看看他的政府如何在一些关键指标上表现。

Tax reform

税制改革

A comprehensive tax plan implemented in 2018 — which lowered income taxes and raised levies on sugary drinks and oil products — boosted government revenue by 19% in the first five months of 2018 compared to the same period in 2017. That has given Duterte more room to spend on projects to support an economy expanding near its potential growth of 6.9% to 7%
.Duterte’s government has also taken a hardline stance against tax evasion, winning big in a settlement against cigarette maker Mighty Corp for alleged wrongdoing.

2018年实施的综合税收计划 - 降低了所得税，并提高了对含糖饮料和石油产品的征税 - 在2018年的前五个月与2017年同期相比，政府收入增加了19％。这使杜特尔特获得了更多的操作空间花在项目上，以支持经济增长接近6.9％至7％的潜在增长。
杜特尔特政府也采取强硬立场反对逃税行为，与因涉嫌违法行为的香烟制造商Mighty Corp达成和解协议

Infrastructure

基础设施

Duterte’s flagship programme is dubbed Build, Build, Build, and involves almost 5,000 projects that are expected to generate 43-million jobs by the end of his six-year term. The focus is to spend 859-billion pesos completing 32 of 75 key infrastructure projects by 2022, including upgrading Manila’s airport and rail links from the capital to northern provinces.

.杜特尔特的旗舰项目被称为建设，建设，建设，涉及近5,000个项目，预计到六年任期结束时将产生4300万个就业岗位。到2022年，重点是花费8590亿比索完成75个关键基础设施项目中的32个，包括将马尼拉的机场和铁路连接从首都升级到北部省份。

The infrastructure push will widen the budget deficit to 3.2% of GDP in 2019, above the government’s cap of 3%, finance secretary Carlos Dominguez said on Monday

财政部长卡洛斯多明格周一表示，基础设施的推动将使预算赤字在2019年扩大到GDP的3.2％，高于政府的3％上限。

Inflation

通货膨胀
The tax law boosted fuel costs, and coupled with rising oil prices and a weak currency, pushed up the inflation rate to 4.6% in May. The central bank will miss its 2%-4% target in 2018 and is worried about price pressures spreading more broadly in the economy and adding to wage demands. Governor Nestor Espenilla has raised interest rates twice in 2018, with economists predicting he will tighten some more in the second half of the year.

税法提高了燃料成本，加上油价上涨和货币疲软，推动5月通胀率上升至4.6％。
中央银行将在2018年错过2％-4％的目标，并担心价格压力在经济中更广泛地蔓延并增加工资需求。州长Nestor Espenilla在2018年两次加息，经济学家预测他将在今年下半年收紧一些。

Currency

货币

The peso has been one of the hardest hit in Asia in 2018 as stocks take a stronger beating than their emerging-market peers. Overseas investors have pulled $1.22bn out of equities so far in 2018, exceeding the combined inflows in 2016 and 2017. Since Duterte took office in 2016, foreign investors have withdrawn more than $613m.

比索一直是2018年亚洲受灾最严重的地区之一，因为股票比新兴市场同行更受打击。到2018年，海外投资者已经从股票中剔除了12.2亿美元，超过了2016年和2017年的总流入量。
自2016年杜特尔特上任以来，外国投资者已经撤回超过6.13亿美元。

Red tape

繁文缛节

The Philippines slumped the most in Asia in a global competitiveness ranking by Switzerland-based IMD, dropping nine places to 50th of 63 economies. Stamping out red tape by speeding up bureaucratic processes and queues was one of Duterte’s three biggest campaign pledges, along with restoring law and order and fighting corruption.

总部位于瑞士的IMD在菲律宾的全球竞争力排名中，菲律宾下滑幅度最大，在63个经济体中排名下降9位至第50位。
通过加快官僚程序和队列排除繁文缛节是杜特尔特三大竞选承诺之一，同时恢复法律和秩序以及打击腐败。

Public order

公共秩序

Duterte’s security policies have been among his most controversial moves. He has repeatedly ordered police officers to shoot drug suspects who resist arrest, and promised to protect authorities from criminal cases in an effort to fight crime and drug dealers. But he’s been criticised for supposedly encouraging summary killings in the drug war that’s left at least 4,000 dead, based on police data.

杜特尔特的安全政策是他最有争议的举动之一。他多次命令警察射杀拒绝逮捕的毒嫌犯，并承诺保护当局免受刑事案件的侵害，以打击犯罪和毒贩。但根据警方的数据，他因毒品战争中令人鼓舞的总结杀人事件而受到批评，该战争造成至少4,000人死亡。

He has also imposed martial law in the southern island of Mindanao to combat terrorism. The government has said crime rates have eased, but private surveys show 1.5-million families have still been victimised by common crimes during the first quarter of 2018.

他还在南部棉兰老岛实施戒严以打击恐怖主义。政府表示，犯罪率有所缓解，但私人调查显示，2018年第一季度仍有150万个家庭成为普通犯罪的受害者。

Diplomacy

外交

Duterte’s pivot to China has paid off with rising tourism, trade and investment from the world’s second-largest economy. At the same time, relations with other partners, such as the US, EU and the Middle East have deteriorated, said Raphael Mok, a senior analyst at Fitch’s BMI Research.

随着世界第二大经济体旅游业，贸易和投资的增加，杜特尔特对中国的支持得到了回报。与此同时，惠誉BMI研究部高级分析师拉斐尔莫说，菲律宾与美国，欧盟和中东等其他合作伙伴的关系也在恶化。

"Duterte’s war on drugs, volatile leadership and disregard for human rights have put the Philippines at odds with the Western world," Mok said. "Although relations between Beijing and Manila have improved considerably, these diplomatic manoeuvres are risky and would make the economy increasingly beholden to China, which is still at odds with the Philippines over conflicting maritime claims in the South China Sea."

莫德说：“杜特尔特对毒品的战争，不稳定的领导和对人权的漠视使菲律宾与西方世界发生冲突。” “虽然北京和马尼拉之间的关系有了很大改善，但这些外交手段风险很大，并且会使中国经济越来越受到中国的影响，而中国仍然与菲律宾在南中国海的海上主权相互冲突方面存在分歧。”