中国公路穿过巴基斯坦 [巴基斯坦媒体]

China’s road through Pakistan

中国公路穿过巴基斯坦



MINISTER Planning Mr Ahsan Iqbal has been busy of late. He has had to deal with those nuisance protesters blocking the road, then play host to the Chinese delegation that flew in for the seventh Joint Cooperation Committee (JCC) meeting to finalise the Long Term Plan (LTP) for CPEC. Since it has been difficult to get through to him in the midst of these pressing engagements, I thought I’d share some questions I have about that meeting right here in hopes of an answer.

规划部部长艾山·伊克巴先生最近一直忙的很晚。他现在必须对付那些反对修建这条公路的讨厌抗议者们，然后作为东道主接待飞过来的中国代表团参加第七次联合合作委员（JCC）会议，以确定中巴经济走廊（CPEC)的长期计划。因为这些迫在眉睫的事情，现在很难与他直接取得联系，我想我可以在这里分享一些我所知道的有关这次会议的事情，希望大家的问题得到解答。

Why are the Chinese interested in making the yuan legal tender in Gwadar? What purpose does such a step serve, and how are Pakistan’s interests advanced by it? If this is about helping make the yuan an international currency, which is a major policy priority for China, then why only ask for it to be legal tender in Gwadar? Why not all of Pakistan? Most other efforts to make the yuan a global currency are focusing on making it into a reserve asset through yuan-denominated bonds and currency swap arrangements between the central banks of China and other countries. Pakistan too has such a swap arrangement for many years now. But reserve asset is one thing, legal tender is a different ball game altogether.

为什么中国有兴趣在瓜达尔港推行人民币作为法定货币？他们做这一步的目的是什么？这样可以为巴基斯坦带来哪些利益？如果这是为了帮助人民币成为一种国际化货币，而人民币国际化作为中国的一个主要优先政策，那么他们为什么仅仅要求在瓜达尔港作为法定货币？为什么不是整个巴基斯坦？在此之前，中国其他大多数人民币国际化的工作力度集中在让人民币变成一种储备资产，通过以人民币计价的债券发行和中国中央银行与其他国家间货币互换协议。现在与巴基斯坦也有这样一个多年的交换协议。但是以资产储备推广是一回事，要求成为法定货币是一个完全不同的情况。

When did the government of Pakistan first receive this proposal which was raised and discussed at the JCC meeting concluded on Tuesday? According to details trickling out from that meeting, it was first raised in the Senior Officials Meeting held on Monday which was intended to prepare the ground for the higher-level talks on Tuesday where the important policy decisions were made. Is this true? Another report, quoting unnamed officials, says that “Pakistan conveyed its opposition to the demand a few months ago, but the Chinese side pressed it again”. So if they were told ‘no’ a few months ago, and returned to press the demand again, might they return a few months later and press harder still? Or is the ‘no’ they have been given this time final? Has this been raised in any of the previous JCC meetings?

这个建议在本周二结束的联合合作委员（JCC）会议上被推出和讨论了，那么巴基斯坦政府第一次收到这个建议是什么时候？根据会议透露出来的细节，这个建议第一次提出是在本周一的高级官员会议上，而这个会议目的是为了准备好适当的土地，以便于在周二更高级的会谈中做出重要的决策。这是真的吗？在另一个报道指出，引用匿名官员的说法：“巴基斯坦几个月前曾对这个要求表示反对，但是中方再次坚持了这个要求”。因此如果他们中国人的要求在几个月前被说不，他们可能会在几个月后回来更努力地坚持这个要求吗？还是说他们这次的要求被否决就是最终结果？在以前所有的联合合作委员（JCC）会议中，这个要求曾一直被提起吗？

How hard did the Chinese press the case for this proposal? Again, according to details trickling out, it appears there was extended debate around the idea. Is this true? What arguments did they advance for the proposal? Following the meeting, the secretary planning told reporters that the idea had been turned down, but the minister planning simply said it was being considered and “it is only a proposal at this point”. So which is it? Turned down or under consideration? Or perhaps ‘turned down for now but to be considered later’?

中国人提出这项建议面对的压力有多大？根据再次流露出来的细节来看，似乎围绕这个想法存在广泛的争论。这是真的吗？他们推动这个提议的理由是什么？会议结束后，规划部秘书告诉记者们这个建议被拒绝了，但是规划部部长只是说我们正在考虑这个提案，并且它在目前仅是一个建议。所以真实的情况是哪一个？拒绝还是在考虑中？或者是说“现在拒绝，以后考虑”？

The CPEC plan raises far more questions than it answers. It needs to be made public.

中巴经济走廊（CPEC）计划引发的问题远远比解决的问题多，它需要公开。

By itself the proposal doesn’t tell us much, except that whatever plans the Chinese have for Gwadar are a lot bigger than what we have been told. Thus far, there are two countries that have officially allowed the yuan to be legal tender: Angola and Zimbabwe. In the case of Zimbabwe, the decision was aided by the fact that its own currency had collapsed in 2009, with an inflation rate of 500 billion per cent (yes, five hundred billion). They shifted to the US dollar and the South African rand as legal tender, then in 2015 allowed the yuan in.

不管怎么样，除了中国人对瓜达尔的计划比我们所被告知的大得多外，这个建议本身并没有告诉我们太多东西。到目前为止，有两个国家正式允许人民币作为其法定货币，分别是安哥拉和津巴布韦。在津巴布韦的案例中，这个决定的确定得益于在2009年他们的货币政策在事实上崩溃了，当时他们的通胀率比率达到百分之五万亿（你没看错，就是五万亿）。他们转为用美元和南非兰特作为法定货币，然后在2015年批准了人民币进来。

By itself there is nothing inherently wrong with countries discussing and possibly mulling monetary arrangements whereby their currencies can acquire the status of legal tender in other countries. But in this case, a few sources of concern arise. First, it appears the demand is for one city only, which is odd, unless there is a plan to extend the coverage to the rest of Pakistan soon, in which case it is still odd to begin with one city, especially one so remote from the centres of economic activity in the country, for now anyway.

就其本身而言，各国讨论并考虑货币安排，使其货币在其他国家获得法定货币的地位本身并没有什么错误。但是在这样的情况下，引发了一些担忧：首先，似乎这里仅仅要求在一个城市实施，这很奇怪，除非有一个计划可以很快将其覆盖范围推广到巴基斯坦的其他地方，不过就算这样情况仍然透露着古怪，特别是在从现在无论如何看都是一个远离国家经济活动中心的城市开始这个计划。

The LTP that was finalised on Tuesday (pending a few issues we are told) needs to be made public to prevent questions such as these from clouding the overall positive prospects that CPEC has for Pakistan. What is an important source of concern is how many other such surprises await us in the future as we go down this road. Recall that we are only at the very beginning, and the discussions taking place around the LTP — which is a detailed road map extending to 2030 that significantly increases the role of Chinese capital and enterprises in Pakistan’s economy — are precisely where the future shape of the project is being decided.

本周二最终确定下来的LTP（长期计划）几个待解决的问题需要被公开，以免这些问题使CPEC对巴基斯坦原本整体上的积极前景蒙上阴影。让人关注的重要因素是：当我们在这条路上走下去时，还有多少这样的惊喜等待着我们。回想起来，正是因为这个项目在确定未来巴基斯坦的经济格局，所以我们仅仅是在最开始的时候就围绕着这个延伸到2030年的详细的公路长期计划进行讨论，它会在其中极大地增加中国资本和企业的作用。

Nobody outside a small circle had heard of this proposal to bring the Chinese currency as legal tender in Pakistan. It is not mentioned in any public pronouncement, not on the CPEC website, not in any of the minutes of the JCC meetings held thus far, not in the LTP finalised in December 2016 at the sixth JCC and not in the shorter summary of that document circulated to the provinces in March of 2017. So the question is, what else is being discussed that would take the whole cooperative framework of CPEC far beyond the roads and power plants that we are encouraged to imagine when thinking about the project?

除了一个小圈子外，没有人曾经听说过这个将中国货币在巴基斯坦提升为法定货币的建议。它从未在任何一个公开申明被提及，不在CPEC（中巴经济走廊）官方网站上，没有在迄今为止举行的JCC（联合合作委员会）的会议记录中，没有在2016年12月份确定长期计划的第六次JCC（联合合作委员会）会议里，也没有在2017年3月时各省传阅的简短总结上。所以现在的问题在于当我们想到这个项目时，忍不住想象还有哪些将整个CPEC（中巴经济走廊）的合作框架远远超出公路和发电厂范畴的事情正在被商讨？

There is one fact that is becoming increasingly clear: CPEC involves a fundamental and profound reshaping of our economy and policy landscape in order to create the space for Chinese capital and enterprises to acquire stakes and participate in the economic life of the country. When this newspaper ran details from the LTP back in May, the minister planning referred to that document as a “live document”, meaning it was up for changes. Then, before the JCC meetings got going, he told us that the LTP under consideration is the same document. The time to come clean on all this has arrived. Let’s see the plan, as you promised, Mr Minister!

有一个事实越来越明显了：CPEC（中巴经济走廊）涉及从根本上深刻改造我们的经济和政策环境，以便给中国的资本和企业参与到我们国家的经济活动中获取利益创造空间，当这份报纸在5月份回顾了LTP的细节时，规划部部长将这个文件称为“临时文件”，意味着它是要改变的。然后，在 JCC （联合合作委员会）会议开始之前，他告诉我们 LTP （长期计划）在考虑之中同样是这个文件。是时候全盘托出了，让我们看下这个你批准的计划的真实内容，部长先生！


Nilesh ghanashyam sisode
Nov 23, 2017 08:54am
Very true questions which should be answered.

这是非常真实的问题，应该得到解答。

p premraj
Nov 23, 2017 08:55am
I see very early seeds of a CHINISTAN

我看到一个中国斯坦的早期种子。

Ashton
Nov 23, 2017 08:59am
CPEC is by China & for China. Pakistan is incidental in the whole scheme of things.

中巴经济走廊计划来自中国也是为了中国。巴基斯坦在整个计划中就是附带物。

alba
Nov 23, 2017 09:00am
He needs to be the interior minister! What's up with that?

作者他应该做内政部长！那怎么回事？

Jamil Soomro, New York City
Nov 23, 2017 09:04am
A blunt,realistic gripping article by Mr.Khurram Husain with crude facts on CPEC.

克鲁姆·侯赛因先生（作者）写了一篇直率、真实、扣人心弦的文章揭露了CPEC（中巴经济走廊）赤裸裸的事实。

Just when optimism on CPEC was being felt all around the country.

只是当全国各地都对中巴经济走廊项目感到乐观的时候。

Pakistan has been plunged into extreme pessimism due to lack of transparency on CPEC.

由于CPEC（中巴经济走廊）项目缺乏透明，巴基斯坦陷入极度悲观中。

The question arises is Pakistan squandering its monetary resources on CPEC with China?

现在的问题是为了支持中国，巴基斯坦在中巴经济走廊上浪费金钱了吗？

Shabbir Ahmed
Nov 23, 2017 09:05am
Well said Mr Khurram.

克鲁姆先生说的非常好！

Mr Ahsan Iqbal should come clean on matters of such importance for the future generations of Pakistan.

这件事情对于巴基斯坦未来的几代人是如此重要，艾山·伊克巴先生应该全盘托出。

After all, why is the secrecy.

究竟为什么要保密？

Hope, the handful of roads and some low quality power plants are not at the cost of national sovereignty.

希望这少数的几条公路和一些低劣的电厂不是以国家主权为代价换来的。

point of view
Nov 23, 2017 09:08am
Pakistan is going toward economic slavery and its sovereignty is at stake.

巴基斯坦正在走向奴隶制经济，我们的主权正在受到威胁。

Philosopher (from Japan)
Nov 23, 2017 11:46am
Wonderful article congrats writer you have courage to ask blunt questions.

作者的文章非常好，而且有着直率提问的勇气，祝贺作者。

I sense the CPEC is an en mass route to invade the country in a broader sense even if we take it narrowly then Pakistan’s limping economy cant bear the shockwave of Chinese products at extremely low prices that even Pakistani producers can’t compete.

从广泛意义来讲，我感觉中巴经济走廊就是一个国家侵略的大规模路线，即使我们勉强接受，巴基斯坦疲软的经济也无法承受中国产品的冲击，中国的产品价格极低甚至是巴基斯坦也无法竞争。