中国的老龄化问题由于出生率与结婚率双双下落愈演愈烈 [联合国媒体]

China’s ageingpopulation problem worsens as birth and marriage rates fall

中国的老龄化问题由于出生率与结婚率双双下落愈演愈烈

Demographer puts lower birth rate downto a drop in the number of women at childbearing age

人口统计学家将出生率降低归结于育龄女性数量的降低。

 

China’s ageing society problem appears to beworsening, with the latest official statistics revealing that both its birthand marriage rates have dropped significantly.

中国的社会老龄化问题愈演愈烈，根据最新的官方统计显示，出生率与结婚率均严重下滑。

Thecountry is facing huge challenges with its new births in decline and a quarterof the population expected to be aged over 60 by 2030, according to a cabinetplan.

该国正面临着巨大挑战，其新生儿数量显着下降，到了2030年，预计将有1/4的人年龄超过60岁

Its rapidly ageing population pushed Beijing to end thenotorious one-child policy – introduced in 1979 to control population growth –in 2016, and couples can now have two children.

人口迅速老龄化迫使北京结束了臭名昭着的独生子女政策。这一政策从1979年开始执行，旨在控制人口增长，到了2016年，一对夫妇可以生育2个孩子

But despite the new policy, some 17.58 million babies were bornin mainland China last year, compared to the 241 million people aged over 60,Xinhua reported on Sunday, citing the latest National Health Commissionfigures.

新华社援引国家卫生委员会的最新数据称，尽管实施了新的政策，去年中国大陆有1758万婴儿降生，但年龄超过60岁的人达到2.41亿。

The birth rate fell to 12.43 births perthousand people last year – down from a record high of 12.95 in 2016. Fifty-oneper cent of those newborns were not the first child in their families, thereport said.

据报道，去年的出生率降至12.43‰人，低于2016年创纪录的12.95‰人，且这些新生儿中有51％不是家中的第一个孩子。



DemographerChen Youhua from Nanjing University said the lower birth rate was mainly to dowith a drop in the number of women at childbearing age – a population structureresulting from the low birth rate in the 1990s.

南京大学人口统计学家Chen Youhua表示，出生率降低主要是因为育龄妇女数量下降。20世纪90年代开始的低出生率，导致了现今的人口结构。

He said other factors such as delaying marriage and a reluctanceto have children also played a role, but would have a limited impact for now,though more obvious change would be seen in a decade.

其还称，其他因素诸如晚婚与不愿生娃也有一定影响，但是现在影响比较有限。不过十年内会有更明显的变化。

 

There have been calls for Beijing to allowcouples to have as many children as they want, a move Chen said would respectbasic human rights but would not encourage people to have bigger families.

有人呼吁北京应允许夫妇想生多少就生多少，CHEN表示尊重基本人权，但不会鼓励人们拥有更大的家庭。

He also doubted whetherproposed tax incentives to boost the birth rate would work either.

他也对有些人提议的、提高出生率的税收激励措施是否有效持怀疑态度。

“TheChinese focus on education means the costs involved in helping parents to raisemore children would be too much for the state, and for society. These sort ofmeasures are more about showing the government’s attitude towards encouragingpeople to have children – they won’t help much to improve the populationstructure,” Chen said.

CHEN还表示：“中国人重教育，这意味着帮助家长养育更多孩子的花费，对国家、社会来说都太过沉重。这些措施更多的是表明政府鼓励人们生孩子的态度，而这些措施对改善人口结构无济于事”



Meanwhile, across thecountry, 3 million couples registered their marriages with the Ministry ofCivil Affairs in the first quarter, down from nearly 4.3 million in the sameperiod of 2013 – a substantial decline of 30 per cent.

与此同时，全国第一季度有300万对夫妇在民政部门登记结婚，数量低于2013年同期的430万，大幅下降了30%。

Thedeclining marriage rate was most acute in Ningxia, one of China’s poorestregions, last year, where it fell by almost 13 per cent from 2016. Shanghai sawthe second biggest drop, at 12 per cent.

宁夏--中国最贫困的地区之一，其结婚率下降最为严重，去年相比于2016年下降了13%。上海排名第二，下降了12%



Measures that have beenfloated to address the low birth rate include introducing a child allowance aspart of the country’s tax reforms.

为了解决低出生率，政府采取的措施包括将儿童津贴作为国家税收改革的一部分。

Beijinghas proposed raising the minimum threshold for personal income tax from 3,500yuan (US$520) per month to 5,000 yuan (US$750) to boost domestic consumption,and many demographers say a child allowance should also be introduced.

北京提议将缴纳个税的最低门槛从每月3500元（520美元）提高到5000元（750美元），以提刺激国内消费，而许多人口统计学家表示还应当引入子女津贴。

“Irecently suggested to the National People’s Congress that as part of ournationwide tax reform, parents should be eligible for a tax reduction of 1,000yuan for every child,” said Huang Kuangshi, a researcher at the ChinaPopulation and Development Research Centre, during a question-and-answersession on Thepaper.cn.

中国人口与发展研究中心研究员黄匡时在澎湃新闻的问答环节中表示道：“我最近向全国人大建议，作为全国税制改革的一部分，父母应当有资格为每一个孩子减税1000元。

China’s ageing problemis particularly severe in the traditional heavy industrial areas in thenortheast – Liaoning, Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces – according to earlierstatistics bureau data.

据早先的统计局数据显示，在中国东北传统重工业区--黑吉辽三省，人口老龄化问题尤为严重，

In Liaoning, more than20 per cent of the population was aged over 60 last year, and the localgovernment last week introduced a long-term plan to encourage young couples tohave a second child and older workers to put off retirement or start their ownbusiness.

在辽宁，去年有超过20％的人口年龄超过60岁，当地政府上周推出了一项长期计划，鼓励年轻夫妇生育第二个孩子，并鼓励年长的工人延迟退休或自己创业。

Huangalso suggested the birth rate could be boosted by bringing in three years ofmaternity leave for all new mothers, which he said would also help withchildren’s early education.

黄匡时还表示，可通过允许所有新晋妈妈休3年产假来提高出生率，他说这也有助于儿童的早期教育。

“Ibelieve maternity leave and other related benefits are the most pressingproblems around this issue that [the authorities] need to address,” he said.

黄匡时同时也表示：“我相信产假和其他相关福利，是围绕这件事情的最紧迫的问题，（当局）需要解决才行”

dolce.w@******
16 hours 16 min ago
Increase the immigration rate, and start wideningthe tax base, all these elderly people have to be cared for.

可以提高移民率啊，并且开始扩大税基，所有的这些老年人都必须得到照顾才行。

Shadowshade13
17 hours 25 min ago
Well they always have good supply of south EastAsian Vietnamese forced wifes.
WE CALL FOR HUMAN RIGHTS

好吧，他们通常都有比较多的东南亚妻子供应来源，如被强迫的越南妻子。
我们呼吁人权。

winstons1984@******
23 hours 17 min ago
Watch the movie called "It's a Girl".Well over 100 million baby girls aborted or unconscionably brutally murdered bytheir own parent(s) in China after birth for simply being a girl!
Forced sterilization. Forced abortions. Murders after birthof innocent little baby girls.

去看一部名为《是个女孩》的电影吧。 有超过1亿的女婴在出生后被流产或不合情理地惨遭自己父母的杀害，仅仅因为是一个女孩！
强制绝育、 强制堕胎、无辜的女婴出生后遭谋杀。

Da JiBa
4 hours 2 min ago
There positive side to make 100m non existent.Both environmentally and in China's case competitively.

也有积极的一面啊，少生了1亿人，环境负担降低了，中国更有竞争力了。

smallbedbug@******
20 hours 22 min ago
that why there so many mamma boys...

这就是出现那么多妈宝男孩的原因。

Hammer
1 day 2 hours ago
If 20 million babies are born each year in China, thatmeans that in 2031 there will be 300 million new Chinese. And if the PCCfulfills its work and instead of 20 million the baby population increases to 30million, the Chinese population will increase in 2031 by 450 million Chinese.

如果中国每年有2000万婴儿出生，那么这意味着到2031年，中国将多出3亿人。而如果使劲生的话，比如一年3000万而不是2000万，那么到2031年，中国将增加4.5亿人口。

Da JiBa
4 hours 42 sec ago
@hammer - and all the wealthy and rich will beexporting cash to get their family out to the west.

@Hammer - 所有的富人，都将把现金转移，并把家眷都送到西方国家去。

Clive Stepanek
1 day 1 hour ago
@hammer - thanks, all clear now. You're axenophobic lunatic. Cheers

@hammer - 谢谢，现在我明白了，你就是一个排外的疯子，干杯。

liben
1 day 7 hours ago
Quote
“The birth rate fell to 12.43 births per thousand people lastyear – down from a record high of 12.95 in 2016.”
What is there to worry about. Such a small small margin fromthe record high.
Half a person less out of a thousand.

引用
“去年的出生率降至12.43‰人，低于2016年创纪录的12.95‰人”
这有什么好担心的呢。从最高纪录下降了这么一点点而已。
也就是1000个人里少了半个人而已。

liben
1 day 6 hours ago
clivy .
Singapore's been having this problem for five decades and itsstill doing very fine. China has gone through a lot more worse situation thanthis demographic issue. In fact it could even be a blessing in disguise.
Stop being a sour indian.

新加坡的人口老龄化问题已经存在50年了，但人家现在还是很好啊。中国曾经历了比人口问题更糟糕的情况，事实上，这可能是一种潜在的好事呢
印度人不要酸了好吧。

Clive Stepanek
1 day 6 hours ago
Like I said - nothing to worry about lad. 
Cheers :-)

小伙子，就像我说的完全无须担心
干杯。

Clive Stepanek
1 day 7 hours ago
Careful you don't choke on the sand you've buried yourhead in. 
12.95 to 12.43 represents a 4% decrease whilst at the same time, the amount ofwomen of childbearing age is still decreasing.
Marriages down by 30% in 5 years.
Over 60s (retirees in China) due to be at 25% of total population by 2030 andthat's before China even has a proper welfare system and healthcareinfrastructure to look after them.
But sure, nothing to worry about. Obviously the CCP aren't worried which is whythey've relaxed the one child policy, are considering tax breaks and stillrunning around like headless chickens trying to figure out what to do. 
Nothing to worry about though, eh lad? 
Cheers.

小心点，不要因为把脑壳埋在沙子里而呛死了。
从12.95‰到12.43‰意味着下降了4%啊，而同时育龄妇女的数量仍在下降。
结婚人数在5年内下降了30%。
到2030年，60岁以上（中国的退休人员）人口占总人口的25％，而那时候中国甚至还没有适当的福利制度和医疗基础设施来照顾他们。
当然了，没什么好担心的。 显然TG并不担心，这就是他们放宽了独生子女政策的原因么？这就是TG正在考虑减税的原因么？这也是TG像无头鸡一样四处乱窜、试图弄明白该做什么的原因？

karmicc108@******
1 day 9 hours ago
Mates, let nature takes its course. No need tocry for China. China is doing very well.

小伙伴们，让大自然走上正轨吧，没必要为中国而哭泣，中国做得非常好。

Clive Stepanek
1 day 8 hours ago
Nature is taking it course and it's not going onthe direction XJP would like !!! 
Cheers lad.

大自然正在走向正轨，并没有朝着TG领导层的方向前进！
干杯小伙子。

winstons1984@******
1 day 9 hours ago
The evil one child policy of the CCP has hadnothing but negative affects. From forced abortions, to the heartless, soullessbarbaric post birth killings of female babies, to the biggest unnaturalmale:female ratio of any society in the history of mankind (also leading to theevil abduction of women from neighboring countries to try to remedy thisimbalance) etc. Not to mention the intrusive and sick controlling of womensbodies (the ultimate control). And now there isn't enough young people to takecare of the aging population.

邪恶的独生子女政策只有负面影响，从强迫堕胎，到无情、无灵魂野蛮杀害女婴，到人类历史上所有社会中最不自然的男女比例（还导致从邻国绑架妇女、试图弥补这种不平衡的邪恶行为）等。更别提对女性身体的侵犯以及病态的控制行为了（终极控制）。而现在没有足够的年轻人来照顾年老的人口了。