随着贸易战迫近“中国制造2025战略”会有什么变化？ [联合国媒体]

What happens to ‘Made in China 2025’ as trade war fears grow

随着贸易战迫近“中国制造2025战略”会有什么变化？



The objective of China’s version of the Fourth Industrial Revolution is to make the country more self-sufficient in a range of technologies and activities

中国第四次工业革命的目标是使中国在一系列重要科学技术上取得突破实现自给自足。

Launched by Premier Li Keqiang in 2015, the “Made in China 2025" strategy aims to guide the country’s industrial modernisation, including the substitution of foreign technology with innovation developed on the mainland.

2015年由中国总理提出的“中国制造2025”战略意在引导中国实现工业现代化，并以本土创新研发取代外国技术引进。

This strategy, known as the Chinese version of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, had initially raised concerns in the United States and European Union because of the mainland’s goal to wean itself off importing a range of technologies from leading foreign suppliers.

这一被称为中国版第四次工业革命的发展战略一提出就引起了美国欧盟的关注，因为大陆此举目标就在于停止从外界引进技术。

“Instead of moving ahead with the progressive market-based reforms announced at the Third Plenum in 2013, state planners are unfortunately falling back on the old approach of top-down decision-making,” Jörg Wuttke, the president of the European Union Chamber of Commerce in China, said in a report.

欧盟在华商会主席约尔格乌特克在一份报告中表示：“国家规划者没有继续推进2013年三中全会上提出的以市场为基础的渐进式改革，转而不幸地回到了自上而下的决策方式。”

The Mercator Institute for China Studies, a German think tank, described the strategy as “a forceful and smart challenge to the leading economies of today”.

德国智库墨卡托中国研究所将这一战略称为“对当今领先经济体的强有力挑战”。

That initiative, however, has proved to be prescient as China faces a potential trade war with the United States after US President Donald Trump announced plans to impose tariffs worth US$60 billion against goods imported from the mainland.

但事实证明这一举措有先见之明，因为自从美国总统特朗普宣布对中国进口商品征收高达600亿美元的关税后中国就面临着与美国的贸易战。

White House trade adviser Peter Navarro said the tariffs will be levied on products in the 10 areas identified in the “Made in China 2025” initiative.
Here are some salient points about that strategy. 

白宫贸易顾问 彼得·纳瓦罗 称将对“中国制造2025”战略中确定的10个地区产品征收关税。
以下是这一战略的一些要点。

When did the initiative take effect? 

该战略何时会生效？

The plan became effective immediately after Li’s presentation. 
“We will implement the 'Made in China 2025' strategy, seek innovation-driven development, apply smart technologies, strengthen foundations, pursue green development and redouble our efforts to upgrade China from a manufacturer of quantity to one of quality,” Li said in his 2015 annual government work report. 

这一战略在新一届中国领导人上台后立马生效。
“我们将实施中国制造2025战略，寻求以创新驱动的崭新发展方式，应用智能技术夯实发展基础，追求绿色发展并将中国制造从数量驱动转为质量驱动。”中国总理在2015年政府工作报告中表示。

How will the Trump administration’s tariff plan impact the strategy?

特朗普政府的关税制裁法案会对这一战略造成什么影响？

Despite advances it has made in hi-tech industries, China still depends on foreign technology transfer to push forward its own innovation agenda and next-generation manufacturing goals. As such, analysts said US tariff measures could hurt the implementation of China’s 2025 goals.

中国尽管在高新技术产业取得了一些进展，但中国依旧依赖外来技术推动自主创新实现产业升级。因此分析师表示美国关税法案会对中国制造2025战略的实施产生伤害。

What are the 10 sectors covered by the strategy?

这一战略涵盖了哪十大领域？

1)Next-generation information technology, including cybersecurity. 

1.确保网络安全的下一代信息技术

2) High-end numerical control tools and robotics, which provide China with greater manufacturing efficiency as labour costs rise.  

2.随着劳动力成本上涨，高端数控机床和机器人技术将助拳中国生产力飞跃。

3) Aerospace equipment, which shows China’s determination to be a world leader in outer space exploration.

3.航天装备制造，显示了中国成为航空航天领域领头羊的雄心。

4) Ocean engineering equipment and hi-tech ships, signifying maritime security implications of China’s territorial claims in the South China Sea and the East China Sea.  

4.海洋工程设备和高科技船舶制造，标志着中国的南海东海领土主张得到确立。

5) Advanced railway equipment, which shows how advanced China’s high-speed railway systems have become.

5.高端铁路装备制造，展示中国高铁系统的先进性。

6) Energy-saving and new energy vehicles, which highlights China’s goal to replace traditional petrol vehicles with those that use alternative fuel.  

6.节能技术与新能源汽车，凸显了中国利用替代能源取代传统能源汽车的雄心。

7) Power equipment, which are part of China’s implementation of clean power. 

7.新兴能源装备制造，这也是中国清洁能源战略的一部分。

8) Agricultural machinery, which represents China’s advances in producing large tractors and high-performance combines.  

8.推进农业机械化，代表了中国在大型拖拉机和高性能联合收割机制造方面的进步。

9) New materials, which include materials like graphene and nano materials.

9.研发新材料，包括石墨烯和纳米材料。

10) Biomedicine and high-performance medical devices, which includes China’s development of advanced chemicals and medical equipment.

10.推进生物制药以及高性能医疗器械制造，推动中国化学仪器以及医疗设备发展。

How is China implementing the plan? 

中国会怎么实施这一战略？

The Chinese government is investing vast resources, including subsidies, loans and bonds, to support domestic hi-tech enterprises and encourage more Chinese firms to expand overseas and acquire foreign firms with cutting-edge technologies. 
The total “Made in China 2025” is likely to exceed US$1.5 billion. Besides central government funding, Chinese local authorities have committed more than US$1.6 billion between 2016 and 2020. 

中国政府正在利用补贴，贷款等方式投入资源支持国内高科技企业发展，鼓励更多中国企业走出国门进军国际市场并积极收购拥有尖端技术的外企。
中国为推进“中国制造2025”战略有望投入15亿美元。除了中央政府补贴外，地方政府也承诺将在2016-2020年间补贴16亿美元。

What has China achieved so far?  

中国取得了什么成就？

Initial positive results include advances in large aircraft manufacturing, semiconductor technologies, new material, aircraft engine and gas turbine, 5G mobile network equipment and new energy vehicles, according to Miao Wei, the Minister of Industry and Information Technology. 
The government has also established five national manufacturing innovation centres and 48 provincial manufacturing innovation centres. China aims to set up around 40 national manufacturing innovation centres by 2025. 

工业与信息技术部部长苗伟称初步取得的成果有：大型飞机制造，半导体技术，新材料，飞机发动机，燃气轮机，5G移动网络设备，新能源汽车。


Rantap1 week 12 hours ago
The total “Made in China 2025” is likely to exceed US$1.5 billion.
Shouldn't that be trillion? Billions are peanuts today

“中国制造2025”战略总投资有15亿美元。
不该最少有1万亿美元投资吗？十几亿美元有什么用。

[email protected]******1 week 1 day ago
The main reason why the US has a large trade deficit with China is that America refuses to sell any high tech goods to China since the latter joined the WTO in 2002. As gleaned from the recent US exports to China, they are still agricultural products, cars and Boeing planes. To achieve "Manufacture 2025", China needs to depend on its own R&D. Fortunately, during the past several decades, China has educated millions of Science, Mathematics, Engineering and Technology (SMET) graduates and there is high probability that the ambitious 2025 plan will be accomplished.

自从中国在2002年加入世贸组织后美国就拒绝向中国出售高科技产品，导致美国对华贸易逆差。从最近的美国对华出口数据来看，美国对华出口商品主要还是农产品，汽车和波音飞机。为实现“中国制造2025”战略，中国需要依靠自己研发技术。幸运的是，过去数十年来中国已经培育出数百万科学，数学，工程和技术毕业生，这才让这一雄心勃勃的计划有实现的可能。

ARTAKHSHATHRA1 week 1 day ago
The plan looks awesome! I really wish to the chinese good luck with it.
I hope that they will succeed!

这计划听起来真好。祝中国人一帆风顺。
我希望他们能成功！
中国万岁

[email protected]******1 week 1 day ago
It's quite obvious now US is using Trade-War to camouflage its (with the contrivance of it's western lackeys, UK, France, Germany) true motive to abort the realization of Xi Jinping's Chinese Dream. But the trouble is China's progress is unstoppable. The West would only appear funny with all their dirty street-smart tricks.

很明显美国在利用贸易战掩盖其真实动机——迫使中国放弃中国梦。但问题是中国的崛起势不可挡。西方只会用他们蹩脚的街头把戏戏弄别人。

Frankie Teo1 week 2 hours ago
While I agree with you on US posturing on this trade-war issue. I think China's progress might be a little too optimistic on this fourth industrial revolution. It 3 technologies CHinese are clearly behind: namely Quantum computing, Cyber-warfare technologies and SuperAI.
All 3 combo supremacy will dominate with so subtle stealth and brilliant manipulation, humans are incapable of detecting. China has the greatest risk of a SUperAI take over due to limited checks-and-balances and subdued secrecy of enforcement officials. China is not build with innovation but by copying and evolving with low cost output. Withiout a sustained and increasing R&D base, progress cannot accelerate but progress at single digit linear scale wih at most double digit profit levels. Inter-dependence on tech and trade need fine balances for both sides to succeed, they already know that.

尽管我同意你对美国发动贸易战的看法。我认为中国在推进第四次工业化上太乐观了。中国明显在3种技术上落后了：量子计算，网络战技术以及人工智能。
结合这三项技术的优势将能无声无息等操纵监视人类。由于有限制衡以及执法人员的保守，中国面临着被人工智能接管的危险。中国并非以创新驱动而是靠低成本的模仿抄袭。没有持续不断的研发支持，技术进步就不可能加速。利润最多也就只有两位数。中国也认识到双方需要取得技术与贸易的互相依赖。

djawa1 week 13 hours ago
Yes of course! DO you really think the USA will give up their number 1 position in the word to be number 2 to China? I dont think so. 
Tariffs are just the start, recognition of Taiwan, creating trouble in your provinces, spreading the evil panacea of democracy and religion! Its all about to get a lot more shaky in China,,,

当然了。你真的觉得美国会放弃世界第一的宝座甘心做老二？我不这么觉得。
关税只是个开始，承认台湾，在中国各省间制造摩擦，还要转播民主宗教的毒药。这么做都是为了摧毁中国的根基。

[email protected]******1 week 1 day ago
not contrivance but CONNIVANCE

不是阴谋而是阳谋

shawn19801 week 1 day ago
Trump can try but it is very certain that his plan will not reduce trade deficit. If the Chinese airlines call Boeing to cancel future orders and channel the orders to Airbus, the trade deficit would be widened. Of course, there is no winner here except the European countries would keep quite and take the orders from China and US.

特朗普可以这么尝试，但他绝对做不到削减贸易赤字。如果未来中国航空公司取消了波音订单转而选择空客，贸易赤字还会更严重。当然这么做没有赢家。欧盟只会保持沉默，默默地接受来自中美的订单。

djawa1 week 13 hours ago
Why dont you make your airlines buy your own planes? How can you have an airforce and not even make your own passenger planes? Makes me think your airforce is probaby more of a danger to itself than to anyone else!

你为什么不让你的航空公司购买国产飞机？有了空军后怎么可能连客机都造不出来？让我觉得你的飞机随时有坠落的危险。