【以色列《耶路撒冷邮报》】7 年后：从阿拉伯之春中得出的结论 [以色列媒体]

SEVEN YEARS LATER: DRAWING CONCLUSIONS FROM THE ARAB SPRING

《耶路撒冷邮报》】7 年后：从阿拉伯之春中得出的结论

By Amotz Asa-El  作者：阿莫兹 · 阿萨埃尔



Seven years on, though the Arab Upheaval’s inferno is still raging, several conclusions must be drawn already now.

七年过去了, 尽管阿拉伯动乱的地狱仍在肆虐, 但现在必须得出一些结论。

Tanks had rolled into Alexandria and Cairo, and the day’s death toll had crossed two dozen when president Hosni Mubarak, taking a phone call from within his teetering throne hours after sacking his entire cabinet, now heard Barack Obama’s confident voice:

坦克驶入亚历山大和开罗，当天死亡人数已经超过了二十多人，埃及总统穆巴拉克在他的整个内阁被解职数小时后，在他摇摇欲坠的宝座上接听了一个电话，听到了巴拉克·奥巴马自信的声音：

“Violence will not address the grievances of the Egyptian people,” preached the American president, “and suppressing ideas never succeeds in making them go away.”

“暴力不会解决埃及人民的不满，”美国总统宣称，“压制思想永远也无法使他们消失。”

Delivered seven years ago next week, this sermon encapsulated the naiveté, ignorance, arrogance and recklessness with which Obama handled what he, and many others in the West, mistook for “the Arab Spring.” 

七年前的那次布道概括了奥巴马处理手段的天真、无知、傲慢和鲁莽，许多西方人误认为那是"阿拉伯之春"。

Obama really thought the lava erupting from Egypt’s bowels was democracy’s call, and that what Mubarak should do in its face is talk. 

奥巴马真的认为从埃及内部喷发出来的熔岩是民主的号召, 而穆巴拉克在其面前应该做的就是一场面对面的谈话。

Seven years on, though the Arab Upheaval’s inferno is still raging, several conclusions must be drawn already now. 

七年过去了, 虽然阿拉伯动乱的地狱仍在肆虐, 但现在必须得出一些结论。

The first is that the Arab world is politically ill. 

首先, 阿拉伯世界在政治上是病态的

THE VIOLENT downfalls of the leaders of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and Yemen, and the gruesome civil wars that erupted in Libya, Syria and Yemen not long after others in Lebanon, Algeria, Sudan and Iraq, all underscore the Arab elites’ failure to craft an Arab future on the debris of the Ottoman past.

突尼斯、埃及、利比亚和也门的领导人的暴力垮台，以及在黎巴嫩、阿尔及利亚、苏丹和伊拉克爆发的可怕内战, 都突显出阿拉伯精英们未能在奥斯曼帝国的残骸上创造出阿拉伯的未来。

Arab statesmen, politicians, tycoons, clergy, academics and literati had for this task a full century, as well as billions of petrodollars and enthusiastic foreign backing. 

阿拉伯领导人、政治家、商界大亨、神职人员、学者和文人在这一任务中拥有整整一个世纪的时间，以及数十亿美元的石油和热情的外国支持。

They squandered them all. The Arab elites never got down to the business of empowering the masses. 

他们把它们都挥霍掉了，阿拉伯的精英们从来没有着手于赋予大众权力的事业。

They treated social mobility as a menace and stifled it by cultivating dynasty, tribe and bribe. 

他们把社会流动性视为一种威胁, 通过培养王朝、部落和贿赂来遏制社会流动。

The second conclusion is that the outer world can’t afford ignoring what happens inside the Arab world. 

第二个结论是, 外部世界不能忽视阿拉伯世界内部发生的事情。

Arab leaders’ failure to look after their peoples’ needs not only spawned ignorance, poverty and bloodshed, but also fueled the fundamentalists who killed thousands of non-Arabs and unleashed the migratory pressures that have radicalized European voters, severed Britain from the European Union and driven a wedge between the EU’s liberal leadership and nationalist periphery. 

阿拉伯领导人未能照顾其人民的需求, 不仅造成了无知、贫穷和流血, 而且还助长了原教旨主义者, 他们杀害了数以千计的非阿拉伯人, 释放了激怒欧洲选民的移民压力, 将英国与欧盟隔离开来, 并在欧盟的自由派领导人和民族主义边缘派之间钉下了一个楔子。

Thirdly, the Arab masses must get prosperity and enlightenment before they get democracy. 

第三, 阿拉伯民众在获得民主之前必须获得繁荣和启蒙

The Western assumptions since the downfall of the Berlin Wall – that democracy’s victory is predestined and also imminent – have unfortunately proven unfounded. 

不幸的是，自柏林墙倒塌以来，西方的假设--民主的胜利是注定的，也是迫在眉睫的--被证明是没有根据的。

Democracy’s march has been halted between Russia, China and Turkey, and its resumption will not happen between Damascus, Cairo and Riyadh. The Facebook protesters who blinded Obama vanished because their message meant little to undereducated villagers enamored by Islamist demagoguery. 

俄罗斯、中国和土耳其之间的民主进程已经停止，大马士革、开罗和利雅得之间也不会恢复民主。蒙蔽奥巴马的Facebook抗议者消失了，因为他们的信息对那些被伊斯兰煽动者所迷恋的受教育程度较低的村民来说意义不大。

To change, the Arab world must first be carpeted with schools like Singapore’s, vocational centers like India’s, and factories like China’s. 

要改变现状，阿拉伯世界首先必须有新加坡那样的学校、印度那样的职业中心和中国那样的工厂。

Only then, with millions gainfully employed, will it be able to build parliaments like Britain’s. 

只有这样，有了数百万有报酬的就业机会，它才能建立像英国这样的议会。

The fourth and most important conclusion is that the nation-state that the West imposed on the Middle East has failed. 

第四个也是最重要的结论是, 西方强加给中东的“民族国家”已经失败了。



Smoke billows over Cairo following clashes between protesters and police January 28, 2011 (Reuters)Smoke billows over Cairo following clashes between protesters and police January 28, 2011 (Reuters) 

图： 路透开罗 2011 年 1 月 28 日 (路透社)——2011 年 1 月 28 日, 抗议者与警察发生冲突后, 开罗上空浓烟滚滚

COUNTRIES LIKE Syria, Iraq, Libya, Lebanon, Sudan and Yemen emerged in the wake of the Middle East’s encounter with the West following its defeat of the Ottoman Empire. 

叙利亚、伊拉克、利比亚、黎巴嫩、苏丹和也门等国, 是在中东战胜奥斯曼帝国之后与西方发生冲突之后出现的。

It now is clear that the consequent straightjacketing of ethnic, religious and tribal antagonists like Iraqi Kurds and Shi’ites, Syrian Alawites and Sunnis, Lebanese Shi’ites and Christians, or Yemeni Houthis and Sunnis has failed. 

现在很明显, 随之而来的种族、宗教和部落对抗者, 如伊拉克库尔德人和什叶派、叙利亚阿拉维派和逊尼派、黎巴嫩什叶派和基督教徒, 或也门胡塞和逊尼派也都失败了。

The urge to attribute this clumsy statecraft to a conspiracy – that Europeans consciously programmed Arab states to be divided from within and ruled from without – is tempting but probably unfounded. The Europeans who misshaped the Middle East were the same ones who created Yugoslavia, a bag full of cats whose aftermath was the same as Syria’s. 

欧洲人有意识地将阿拉伯国家从内部分裂出去, 从外部来统治, 这种笨拙的治国之道归咎于一种阴谋的冲动，很诱人，但可能毫无根据。那些错误塑造中东的欧洲人就是制造南斯拉夫乱局的那些欧洲人, 满满都是邪恶, 其后果与叙利亚一样。

Now the question is where opinion-makers and political leaders, both local and foreign, go from here. 

现在的问题是, 无论是当地还是外国的舆论制造者和政治领导人将走向何方。

Foreign opinion-makers should first concede that the Middle East’s political illness has nothing to with Israel. Arabs torched themselves seven years ago not because of what happened between Israelis and Palestinians, but because of what happened between Arab societies and their leaders. 

外国舆论制造者应该首先承认, 中东的政治疾病与以色列毫无关系。 阿拉伯人自焚不是因为以色列人和巴勒斯坦人之间发生了什么，而是因为阿拉伯社会和他们的领导人之间发生了什么。

The delusion that Israel is in any way related to the Arab world’s political illness has to be shed by anyone seeking its cure. Otherwise, the search will be misguided from the outset, and there will be more fratricide in the Middle East, more drownings in the Mediterranean and more angry streets in Europe. 

任何想要解决阿拉伯世界政治疾病的人都必须摈弃那种认为以色列与阿拉伯世界的政治疾病有任何关系的错觉。 否则, 从一开始就会被误导, 中东地区会出现更多的自相残杀, 地中海会有更多的人被淹, 欧洲的街道也会更加愤怒。

At the same time, Arab historians, authors, poets, playwrights, filmmakers and journalists will have to ask publicly why there is so much intra-Arab bloodshed, and why Arab leaders have failed to educate, employ and enrich the masses the way Turkey’s, China’s, and India’s leaders did. 

与此同时, 阿拉伯历史学家、作家、诗人、剧作家、电影制作人和记者将不得不公开询问为什么阿拉伯国家内部会发生如此多的流血事件, 为什么阿拉伯领导人没有像土耳其、中国和印度领导人那样教育、雇佣和丰富大众。

Only such public soul-searching will produce formulas for a new Arab mind-set, one that will understand the promise of creation and the destructiveness of the hatreds with which millions of Arabs are awash.

只有这种公开的自我反省才能产生新的阿拉伯思维模式, 只有这种思维模式才能让人理解创造的希望和让数百万阿拉伯人沉浸其中的仇恨带来的破坏性。

Arab leaders, for their part, will have to produce formulas for workable states. 

就阿拉伯领导人而言, 他们将不得不为国家提出可行的政策。

The saddest political aspect of the bloodbaths in Syria, Yemen and Libya is that the Arab League has had nothing insightful to say about them. Someday, some such Arab forum will reconstitute Arab states and the borders between them so they reflect millions of Arabs’ preference of tribe over state. 

叙利亚、也门和利比亚的血腥屠杀在政治方面最可悲的是，阿拉伯联盟对此没有什么深刻的见解。 总有一天, 这样的阿拉伯联盟将重组阿拉伯国家之间的边界, 从而反映出数百万阿拉伯人对部落偏爱而非国家。

Foreigners will not be able to play a role in this re-navigation. 

外国人将无法在这种重置中发挥作用。

Yes, non-Arabs can help reinvent Arab economies. Any foreign- funded hospital, highway, library, shoe factory, canned-food plant or Lego-brick production line’s emergence between Basra and Fez will help the arrival of the real Arab Spring. 
However, the Arab political tragedy will not be solved by any foreigner. 

是, 非阿拉伯人可以帮助重塑阿拉伯经济。 任何外资医院、高速公路、图书馆、鞋厂、罐头食品工厂或乐高(Lego-brick)生产线在巴士拉和 Fez 之间兴起, 都将有助于真正的阿拉伯之春的到来，然而, 阿拉伯的政治悲剧不会被任何外国人解决。


It’s an Arab problem that begs an Arab solution.

阿拉伯问题需要阿拉伯国家的解决
 
“Who are you to tell us how to run our countries?” asked a scornful Mubarak while dismissing Shimon Peres’s New Middle East vision, during a conversation with then-prime minister Ehud Barak. 

"你凭什么告诉我们如何管理我们的国家?" 穆巴拉克在与时任总理埃胡德 · 巴拉克的对话中, 轻蔑的驳斥了西蒙佩雷斯(Shimon Peres)的新中东愿景。

“He told us he stopped reading Peres’s book on page 2, where it said it was printed in Jerusalem,” recalled recently former Foreign Ministry director-general Alon Liel. "

”他告诉我们, 佩雷斯的书，他读到第二页就不读了, 说这本书是在耶路撒冷印刷的。" 最近, 前外交部长阿隆利尔(Alon Liel)回忆道。

Mubarak knew that Barak loathed Peres, and so said what his guest would appreciate, but he didn’t know that the people would ultimately depose and jail him.

穆巴拉克知道巴拉克讨厌佩雷斯, 所以他说他的客人会感激他, 但他不知道这些人最终会罢黜并监禁他。

One wonders whether the 90-year-old Mubarak now realizes that had he followed Peres’s advice back in 1993, to jointly modernize the Middle Eastern economy, the Arab Spring would have long been here, and Mubarak would have been its hero. 

人们不禁要问, 现在已经90岁的穆巴拉克是否意识到，如果他在1993年听从佩雷斯的建议, 共同实现中东经济的现代化, 阿拉伯之春早就出现了, 而穆巴拉克将会是英雄。



BlueSeas：
Good write up 
obama was horrible 
True comments that this an internal problem for Arab states to solve from within 
Like the Palestinians - you can’t help anyone who does not want to be helped

写得好。
奥巴马太可怕了。
这是阿拉伯国家需要从内部解决的一个内部问题。
就像巴勒斯坦人一样--你不能帮助那些不想得到帮助的人

Olive Teepee：
You never hesitate to say how bad Obama was. But he was good for the United States, which is what he was supposed to be. US Presidents are supposed to be good for the USA, not for other countries.

你当然会毫不犹豫地说奥巴马有多坏。但对美国来说，他很好，这正是他应该做的。美国总统应该服务于美国的利益，而不是对其他国家。

Penny Maggo：
This all stems from the day that oil was discovered in the Middle East and the Arabs were cursed with their new found wealth that was a company to their arrogance.
The Arabs have been dominated by the West,since the discovery of Oil.

这一切都源于石油在中东被发现的那一天，而阿拉伯人则被他们的新发现的财富所诅咒，这是他们的自大的原因。自从发现石油以来，阿拉伯人一直被西方控制着。

BlueSeas：
They get free market prices for every barrel of oil taken from the ground 
The real issue is what have these Arab countries, including Iran (Persian) done with that new found wealth 
The answer is they squandered it
Oil consumption is on the decline because of battery powered cars and trucks, and new technological advances to find cheaper, cleaner burning, new materials in abundance 
Someday soon - oil will be like salt
The Saudi’s see that, and are planning ahead 
What are the other Arab countries, Iran, Venezuela going to do
Lastly, America is about to become the largest supplier of oil in the world

他们每从地下取出一桶石油，就能得到自由市场相应的回报。
真正的问题是，这些阿拉伯国家，包括伊朗(波斯人)对这些新发现的财富做了什么？
答案是他们挥霍掉了。
由于电池驱动的汽车和卡车，以及新技术的进步，更便宜、更清洁的燃烧和大量的新材料，石油消耗正在下降。
总有一天，石油会像盐一样。
沙特人看到了这一点，并提前开始做出计划。
其他阿拉伯国家，伊朗，委内瑞拉打算做什么？
最后，美国即将成为世界上最大的石油供应国。

Joe：
Certainly i can not disagree that America will become the largest supplier of petrolium, But i do not see any evidence of electric power stations to supply electricity to electric vehicles. In New York City, there is not a single such electric stations available as yet. Because, i looked into it and i came up with a zero such places.

当然，我不能不同意你的说法，美国将成为最大的石油供应国，但我也没有看到任何电力发电站向电动汽车供电的证据。在纽约，目前还没有一个这样的电站可供使用，因为我曾调查过，我想这样的充电站还完全不存在。

Orange Bee:
The article implies that Obama caused the Arab Spring and could have stopped the downfall of a brutal military dictator.  Neither is true.

这篇文章暗示，奥巴马引发了阿拉伯之春，并可能阻止了残暴的军事独裁者的垮台——都不是真的。

Frank5555:
You are totally right: overpopulation is one of the cause of the civil war in Syria. The population is 22M but their economy can only sustain 7M

你完全正确：人口过剩是叙利亚内战的原因之一，叙利亚人口2200万，但他们的经济只能维持700万。

Scotland4Israel:
The main conclusion from the "Arab Spring" is that if given a chance (through"democracy") most Mohammedans will opt for the oppression of minorities, the destruction and killing of Christians and a hateful anti-Semitic policy against Israel and all Jews. Enlightened they are not.

“阿拉伯之春”的主要结论是，如果(通过“民主”)给予大多数穆斯林机会，大多数穆斯林将选择压迫少数群体，摧毁和杀害基督徒，以及对以色列和所有犹太人实行可恨的反犹太主义政策，他们并没有开悟。

Purple Seahore:
The main problem is that they have ignored much of their own Holy book and have used it instead to promote hatred of others. Dysfunctional people and a society in need of a major overhaul.

主要的问题是他们忽视了大部分他们自己的圣贤之书，反而用它来煽动对他人的仇恨。民众功能性失调，社会需要大修。

PSdd:
Not just politically ill but seriously MENTALLY ill. They need to take a generation of children and reprogram them from kindergarten while removing all the bigotry they have instilled within for their fellow man.

不仅仅是政治上的疾病，还有严重的精神疾病。他们需要培养下一代的孩子，并从幼儿园开始重新教育他们，同时消除他们为自己的同胞灌输的所有偏见。

JOE：
The younger Arab generation can start cultivating the start of new industrial parks , in order to generate the employment needed, for graduated college students. The democracy eventually will follow, sooner than many believe might come. The Rome was not built, in one day.

阿拉伯的年轻一代可以从培养新的工业园区的开始，以便创造必要的就业机会。民主最终会随之而来，比许多人认为的来得更快。罗马不是一天建成的。

Blue Bullhorn:
It was hoped that Israel as a country that shares Western values of individualism, capitalism, democracy and human rights would anchor these values in the midst of the Arab world and together with a prosperous Palestinian state living in peace side by side with it would be an inspiration for the Arab world. Sadly, backward elements in Israel have betrayed these values and undermined the prospects for the creation of a viable Palestinian state by populating the occupied territories. Instead of becoming a beacon of hope in the Middle East, Israel has become just another regime that represses millions of people.

人们希望以色列作为一个拥有西方个人主义、资本主义价值观的国家。希望民主和人权这些价值观扎根于阿拉伯世界之中，并与一个繁荣的巴勒斯坦国和平相处，这将是对阿拉伯世界的一种鼓舞。可悲的是，以色列的落后分子背叛了这些价值观，破坏了建立一个有生存能力的巴勒斯坦国的前景，因为他们在被占领土上居住。以色列不但没有成为中东希望的灯塔，反而成为另一个压迫数百万人民的政权。