（下）当中国成为第一的时候会发生什么？ [巴基斯坦媒体]

WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

当中国成为第一的时候会发生什么？


Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
When China becomes #1 ? #1 in what? Be specific. Anycase, i suppose if she reaches zenith, then life will continue to go on as it has. 
For Me: Wake up, eat breakfast, shower, get dressed, go to work, eat lunch, brush teeth, go back to work, go home. Shower, brush teeth, sit on sofa and watch tv (and go on PDF on my laptop), get dressed, make dinner. Go out for a run, come back home and half a snack. Massage time (lol), go to sleep.

当中国成为第一？哪方面的第一？请说具体一些。无论如何，我认为如果中国到达顶峰，那么生活还是会照常继续下去。
对我来说:起床，吃早餐，洗澡，穿衣服，上班，吃午饭，刷牙，回去工作，回家。洗澡，刷牙，坐在沙发上看电视(然后在我的笔记本上看巴防论坛)，穿衣，做晚餐。出去跑步，回家吃半份点心。按摩时间(笑)，睡觉。

Shotgunner51
INT'L MOD 中
China is already far bigger than any country in many economic indicators especially on industrial capacity or other production-related aspects, some even bigger than rest-of-the-world combined. However China save too much (again far bigger than any country) and consume too little, let's hope such habit will change.

在许多经济指标中，中国已经远远超过了任何一个国家，尤其是在工业能力或其他与生产相关的方面，有些甚至比世界上其他国家的总和还要大。然而，中国存钱太多(比任何国家都要多)，消费太少，希望这种习惯会改变。

Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
This habit is a righteous habit, my friend. This is something Chinese and Japanese have in common. In fact in Japanese we have a national saying : もったいない which means 'wary in being wasteful'. Its a reminder of not to be wasteful in our habits; do not spend frivolously and always care to save for a rainy day. Japanese tend to have a custom of saving at least 1/3 of their monthly earnings (if possible save 1/2).

存钱是个好习惯，老兄。这是中日两国人民的共同之处。事实上在日本我们有句话，もったいない 意思是“小心别浪费”。它提醒我们不要浪费；不要大手大脚地花钱，要想着存钱以备不时之需。日本人通常有一个习惯，即存至少1/3的月收入(如果可能的话，存1/2)。

Shotgunner51
INT'L MOD 中
Yes I personally think that's a merit. But Chinese save too much, a staggering 48.5% of GDP, #3 in the world only behind Qatar and Brunei! The total amount already exceeds $5 trillion per annum, far bigger than any economy in the world, I think people should save less, and consume more.

是的，我个人认为这是一个优点。但中国人存钱太多，令人震惊的占了GDP的48.5%，在世界上排第三，仅次于卡塔尔和文莱！总金额已经超过5万亿美元每年，远高于世界上任何国家，我认为人们应该少存些钱多消费。

Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
Truly this is part of the Confucian economic prudence nature of the Chinese people! Reminds me of my Chinese friends here in the 'states who are able to buy very pricey gadgets in cash. Cash. I'm not talking about groceries or a small hand bag or gamer controller like that, i'm talking about a $250,000 home (4 bedroom, 2.5 bathroom) --- in cash. That's what i admire about you Chinese.
Anyways, congratulations on your national success bro...definitely something every nation wishes they could have and could attain. Its part of the strengths of the Chinese Nation, and the Chinese people. 

这确实是中国人民儒家经济节俭本性的一部分! 这让我想起了我在美国的中国朋友们，他们可以用现金购买非常昂贵的产品。现金。我说的不是食品杂货，也不是一个小手袋或游戏手柄，我指的是一套25万美元的房子(4个卧室，2.5个卫生间)——用现金。这就是我佩服你们中国人的地方。

无论如何，祝贺你们国家的成就…这绝对是每个国家都希望他们能够拥有和实现的东西。它是中华民族和中国人民力量的一部分。

Atlanticore
FULL MEMBER 巴
I have very positive thoughts about China being a Super Power in near Future. US Global policing will come to an End. As China have no History of invasions i would say that no more countries will be turned into ruins for the sake of Democracy. Global prosperity and Stable Global Economy.

我对中国在不久的将来成为超级大国有着非常积极的想法。美国这个世界警察会很快终结。因为中国没有侵略的历史，我想说以后不会再有哪个国家因为民主而变成废墟。只有繁荣和稳定的全球经济。

Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
One thing I admire about the Chinese foreign policy is their non-interventionist mandate. This culture of 'boots on the ground' is not something they readily do unless China is attacked. Other than that , they utilize economic diplomacy as an agent to propagate their national interests.
I suppose economic diplomacy is a tool for Chinese foreign policy, whereas the United States utilizes her shear military might as political measure. That is the dichotomy between Chinese and American foreign policy mechanisms.
In that aspect I suppose having a multipolar world may not necessarily be a bad thing , as it allows the advances the national priorities without having to be too wary on abstractist political ideologies and notions of maintenance of a supposed world / global order.

我欣赏中国外交政策的一点是他们的不干涉政策。除非中国受到攻击，否则他们不会轻易采取这种“部署军队”的文化。除此之外，他们利用经济外交作为工具来宣传他们的国家利益。

我认为经济外交是中国外交政策的工具，而美国利用军事力量作为政治手段。这就是中美外交政策机制的巨大差别。
在这方面，我认为一个多极的世界不一定是件坏事，因为它能够发展国家的优先事项，而不必对抽象的政治意识形态和维护所谓的世界/全球秩序的观念过于警惕。

KingWest
FULL MEMBER 土 比
Whit a rising Chinese power, its most likely that they will abandon their non-interventionist policy in the future. The USA where once also non-interventionist, but with rising power more and more responsibilities will come. And more interests to safeguard.

随着中国实力的提高，他们很有可能在未来放弃不干涉政策。美国曾经也实行不干涉政策，但随着实力的不断增长，责任会越来越多，还有越来越多的利益需要维护。

scherz
FULL MEMBER 中 德
In the future when China become stronger and USA trying to sabotage chinese influence in Africa and South-America, surely China need to defend its interest. Supposedly proxy wars between USA and China will rise with the risa of Chinas part of the cake in the world which is taken from the USA.

在未来，当中国变得更加强大，美国试图破坏中国在非洲和南美的影响力时，中国肯定需要捍卫自己的利益。据推测，随着中国从美国那里拿走的蛋糕越多，中美之间发生代理人战争的可能性就越大。

Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
Naturally if there is a direct threat to core national interests, the Chinese State will react in proportion to the gravitas of such a threat. Any respectable nation would, irrespective of geopolitical and political ideology, would do the same. However, due to the size of China, she has the largest army, a growing naval power, and an economy that equals the United States, it would be unwise to do so openly. The United States will most probably do , as what you have said, resign to proxy conflicts , which has been the modus operandi the United States played with the Soviets during the Cold War. There will never be a direct war between Super Powers as the Cold War had shown in how the US and the USSR competed with each other.
The moment nuclear armed super powers start confronting each other directly, it is the moment one should head for the hills and build a nuclear-proof safe place with enough resources to last 5-6 months of nuclear winter.
IN other words, there will be no direct confrontation.

当然，如果国家核心利益受到直接威胁，中国政府将按照这种威胁的严重程度做出反应。任何一个受人尊敬的国家，不管地缘政治和政治意识形态如何，都会采取同样的行动。然而，由于中国的规模，她拥有最大的陆军，正在增强的海军，以及与美国相当的经济，公开这么做是不明智的。

正如你所说，美国很可能会选择代理人战争，这是冷战期间美国与苏联之间的惯用手法。超级大国之间永远不会进行直接的战争，因为冷战已经展示了美国和苏联是如何相互竞争的。

核超级大国之间开始直接对抗的时刻，就是人们应该远远躲开的时刻，并且建造一个足够安全的、能对抗核爆的地方，储存足够的物资，以度过5-6个月的核冬天。
换句话说，中美之间不会有直接的对抗。

ZeusMK
FULL MEMBER 巴
to be honest, the way i see it, china is already number 1.

老实说，我认为中国已经是第一了。

KingWest
FULL MEMBER 土 比
The time of Mao Zedong 's Five principles of Peaceful Co-existence may end in the future.The world in which China lived than is different than todays world. It was a mostly isolated country. Under threat by de Sovjet-Union in the 60's and under threat by the United States . It coudnt fight wars way behind their borders because it needed a strong military at home to defend itself. That however didnt stop the Chinese from defending their interest in Korea and Vietnam.
China's zone of influence is growing nowadays with a rising China in terms of military and economy. The Chinese zone of influence doesnt stops at vietnam but goes as far as Africa in terms of investment etc. China doesnt intervene in countries today because it doesnt want to alienate its relations with the West or Russia. But with growing investment and trade between China and for example key-allies in Africa, we cant expect the Chinese to keep quiet when their investments are jeopardized. (For example in Libya where lots of Chinese needed to evacuate because NATO decided to remove Khadaffi).
In the future, war between multiple great powers will of course not happen really fast. Country's like China wil fight indirectly with proxys and support friendly regimes accros the globe.

毛泽东时代和平共处五项原则可能会在未来终结。当时的世界和如今的世界已经不同了。那时候的中国基本上个是孤立的国家。60年代其处于苏联和美国的威胁之下。它不能在其边界以外进行战争，因为它需要一支强大的军队在国内保卫自己。然而，这并没有阻止中国人在朝鲜和越南捍卫自己的利益。

随着中国在军事和经济方面的增强，如今中国的影响力范围也在扩大。中国的影响力范围并没有停留在越南，而是随着投资等方面的进展一直延伸到了非洲。中国如今不干涉各国，是因为它不想疏远与西方或俄罗斯的关系。但随着中国在各国比如非洲的投资和贸易不断增长，我们无法指望中国人在他们的投资受到危害时还会保持沉默。(比如在利比亚，因为北约决定干掉卡扎菲，很多中国人需要撤离)。

在未来，多个大国之间的战争当然不会很快发生。像中国这样的国家将间接地通过代理人与支持全球的友好政权进行战争。

blackdragon
FULL MEMBER 美
Most of these assumptions about China being non-interventionist and having a self-defense foreign policy comes from China's past history of being a mostly agrarian nation.
The industrial revolution changes everything.
If China becomes No. 1, we will see a global Chinese empire by the middle of the 21st century. My reasoning is very simple. China will need a global empire to guarantee an uninterrupted flow of commodities and natural resources into China to power an economy that supports 1.5 billion people by midcentury. Don't forget that China has already removed the one-child policy in 2015 under nationalist hardliner Xi Jinping. President Xi Jinping is also the same guy that constantly talks about a 'Chinese Dream' and a new Chinese renaissance.
Here's the scary part. Right now China is arguably still a third world country on a per capita basis. But look at the jaw-dropping commodities consumption already.
What happens when China's GDP per capita reaches the level of Taiwan, or God forbid Singapore? How much commodities and natural resources will be needed to power a juggernaut economy like that? Where will it come from?
The answer: from the rest of the world.
You think the US Navy will keep the sea-lanes open so China can gobble up 100% of the world's natural resources? Of course not. In conclusion, WW3 is coming.

这些关于中国奉行不干涉和自卫外交政策的假设大多是由于中国过去基本上是个农业国家的历史。
工业革命改变了一切。

如果中国成为第一，我们将在21世纪中期看到一个全球性的中华帝国。我的推理很简单。中国需要一个全球性的帝国，以确保商品和自然资源源源不断地流入中国，以支持本世纪中期养活15亿人口的经济。别忘了，在民族主义强硬派习的领导下，中国已经在2015年取消了独生子女政策。习主席也是一个经常谈论“中国梦”和“中华复兴”的人。

这就是可怕的那部分。现在，按人均计算可以说中国仍然是第三世界国家。但看看这些令人瞠目的商品消费数量吧。

图1

当中国的人均GDP达到台湾的水平，或者新加坡水平（上帝保佑，希望不会这样）的时候，会发生什么? 这需要多少商品和自然资源来推动像这样强大的经济? 资源从哪里来?

答案是:来自世界其他国家。
你认为美国海军会保持海上航道的开放，这样中国就能鲸吞掉世界上100%的自然资源吗?怎么可能。总之，第三次世界大战即将到来。

KingWest
FULL MEMBER 土 比
And thats why China is investing massive amounts of money into railroads and the socalled new silk-road. It knows it cannot match the USA yet in terms of naval power, but it does not want to be entirely dependend on sea lanes.

这就是为什么中国将大量资金投入铁路和所谓的新丝绸之路的原因。它知道，在海军实力方面，它还无法与美国匹敌，但它不希望完全依赖海上航线。

Aepsilons
PDF THINK TANK: ANALYST 日 美
My friend, you must study China in and out. You see we Japanese have a very strong , in grained understanding of Chinese psyche / Chinese psychology because we think similarly with them , we know them very well. Throughout China's 5 millennial history , they have never been an expansionist or exterminationist civilization. China , as a civilization, is not draconian in nature, they are and were an agricultural - based civilization, and relatively peaceful. Chinese have a saying , which direclty influences their civili society from the grassroots level to the national entity level -- This is what they call Tian Xia Wei Gong -- "All is Equal Under Heaven", which is the paradigm of Harmony (which we Japanese also hold quite dear).
China is not a religious society, she has never been a expansionist power rather, they have been largely economical in nature. Even during the height of their most glorious Dynasty, the Ming Dynasty, the Chinese explored the world and mapped the seas under the leadership of their famed admiral Zheng He, but they were not interventionist, rather, they did so to have an understanding of the world in relation to their Middle Kingdom.
Trade, Political Stability, Harmony, ORDER --- this is a trait of Confucian Civilization. And that cultural trait reflects on China, in a greater philosophical schema.
The Great Silk Road will ultimately connect the untapped markets of Central, West Asia, with the market of China and , ASEAN, and to an extent the maritime silk road with Japan. This is economic-based political rapprochement , my friend.

老兄，你必须研究中国的内外。你看，我们日本人对中国精神和中国心理有很强的理解，因为我们和他们的想法相似，我们非常了解他们。纵观中国的五千年历史，他们从来都不是一个扩张主义的或灭绝的文明。中国作为一个文明，在本质上并不严酷，是一个以农业为基础的文明，并且相对的和平。

中国有句古话，它从基层到国家实体层面影响着他们的文明社会——这就是他们所谓的“天下为公”， 这是和谐的典范(我们日本人也很珍视这种典范)。

图2

中国不是个宗教社会，她从来都不是一个扩张主义的大国，他们在本质上是经济性的国家。即使在高度辉煌的王朝,明朝,在着名的郑和领导下探索了世界并绘制了海图，但他们并不是干涉主义者，相反，他们这样做是为了了解与他们的中央王国有关的世界。

贸易、政治稳定、和谐、秩序——这是儒家文明的特点。这一文化特征在更大的哲学纲要中反映在中国身上。
丝绸之路最终将连接中国和东盟到中、西亚的市场，并在一定程度上海上丝绸之路会与日本相连。这是基于经济的政治友好。

KingWest
FULL MEMBER 土 比
Off course it is. But it is mainly to bypass the US naval influence in the world and to not be dependent on the goodwill of the USA (in keeping open its sea lanes). In case of a war the US can completely block these sea lanes and China will be isolated. Thats why its investing in economic projects like the silk road etc.
And I believe you when you say China is a peacefull nation, I dont want to argue about that. But claiming a nation wont go to war because its peacefull is wrong. China has maritime disputes with allmost all nations in ASEAN.It has border disputes with lots of countires. Its interests are different than the interests of Japan, the USA etc. And in the future it may intervene in countries to safeguard their interests. And intevene can mean lots of things. Intervening to topple a hostile dictator, or intervene to help a country in order to keep its own interests safe. Remember that China is a member of the P5 and it has the obligation to help countries in need (R2P) . It wont just stay at the sidelines if its investments are threatened.
China is a rather rational nation. It doesnt act emotional on big issues. But one day will come, when it has the power to intervene and when it has benefits to it.
Quote: If you want peace, prepare for war
As an outsider I just simply give my opinion. Im not pro-China, Im not anti-China. This is a good thing because thats why I can analyse the situation as rational as possible. Asian members will still have somewhat emotions involved when talking about the "Future of China" . I try to watch and understand the Chinese actions from a rational point of view. I tried to do the same with Russia, but I caught myself analysing things more emotionally lately since the downing of the Russian jet.

丝绸之路当然是的。但这主要是为了绕过美国海军在世界上的影响力，以及不依赖美国的善意(保持海上航线的开放)。如果发生战争，美国可以完全封锁这些海上通道，中国将被孤立。这就是为什么他们要投资于丝绸之路等经济项目。

我相信你说中国是一个和平的国家，我不想为此争论。但是，声称一个国家因为和平而不会走向战争，这是错误的。中国与东盟几乎所有国家都存在海洋争端。它也与许多国家有边界纠纷。它的利益与日本、美国等国家的利益是不同的。在未来，它可能会干涉各国以维护他们的利益。干涉意味着很多事情。干涉推翻一个敌对的独裁者，或干涉帮助一个国家以保持其自身利益的安全。记住，中国是五常（P5）中的一员，有义务帮助有需要的国家(R2P)。如果它的投资受到威胁，它不会袖手旁观。

中国是一个相当理性的国家，不会在大问题上情绪化。但当它有实力去干涉，或这么做有益时，这一天终将到来。
引用：如果你想要和平，请准备战争。

作为一个局外人，我只是简单地给出我的意见。我不亲中也不反中。这是一件好事，因为这样我可以尽可能理性地分析形势。当谈到“中国的未来”时，论坛里的亚洲会员仍会带些感情。我试着从理性的角度去观察和理解中国的行为。我曾试着对俄罗斯做同样的事情，但自从俄罗斯战机被击落后，我发现自己对事情的分析更加情绪化了。

anon45
SENIOR MEMBER 美
Sorry Nihonjin, you don't reach China's size without expansion.
Also under the current standards today China is attempting to expand its territory, as it is trying to place areas that are not currently under its administration, under its administration, through both economic/military carrots and sticks.
This includes much of the South China Sea, disputes between it and India, Taiwan, and Japan.
the justification is essentially they used to be under their control. Which brings disturbing parallels to the sudetenland for us more western focused people.
So far both the US and China are attempting to manage their relations to a positive benefit, you can see this with the joint military exercises, but it is difficult for me to see how China's stated core interest of a South China sea essentially under its sovereign control and the US stated core interest of upholding its commitment to its allies and freedom of navigation under current international norms for its navy can reach a compromise.
There are Chinese on here who believe the US will not go to war over a guarantee, but the fact is that to not do so is simply not an option in our politics anymore than Taiwan's fully recognized independence is an option in Chinese politics. It would be fatal for whichever party did so.
To me, a conflict of some intensity looks all but inevitable without a concession from both sides. Nationalism just runs too high in both publics.

抱歉日本人，没有扩张的话中国无法达到现在的规模。
此外，在当前的标准下，中国正试图扩大其领土，因为它正在试图通过经济/军事胡萝卜和大棒，将目前不属于其政府的地区置于其管理之下。
这包括了南中国海的大部分地区，以及它与印度、台湾和日本之间的争端地区。
他们的理由是这些地区过去在他们的控制之下。这给我们大部分西方关注的人们带来了与苏台德地区相似的不安。

到目前为止，美中两国都在试图从积极的利益出发来处理两国关系，你可以从联合军事演习中看到这一点，但我很难看出，中国宣称的南海核心利益基本上在其主权控制之下，而美国则表示，其核心利益在于坚持其对盟友的承诺，以及在现行国际海军准则下的航行自由，这两者如何才能达成妥协。

这里的一些中国人认为，美国不会因为一项保证而开战，但事实是，在我们的政治中，不这样做根本不是一个选项，就好比完全承认台湾独立对中国政治来说不是一个选项一样。这么做这对任何一方来说都是致命的。

在我看来，若没有双方的让步，某种程度的冲突看起来不可避免。民族主义在两国公众中都太高了。

jhungary
MILITARY PROFESSIONAL 澳
Have to admire people's naiveties on the internet.
If China do become number 1, nothing would happen and US foreign policy will stay the same, and the only thing changes is Chinese will be richer than before, not a lot too.
People need to realise, US foreign policy goes on the US National Interest, not China, the only way China can remotely influence US Foreign Policy is by Militarily stronger than the US, and become world number 1 in the Militaries. The problem is, this is not going to happen soon, not in the next 50 years. or even I doubt would this be actually happening at all. But then even if China get to a point where their military strength is greater than US, or to some extend, NATO, that does not mean China will intervene on US Foreign Policy.
It's even funnier to see people saying China influence in South America will lead to Proxy war with the US, would any South American government, no matter how stupid they are, would actually start a war with the US and totally counting on China support? Look at the map, US can have a land invasion route to any South American country. While China have to cross a sea called the Pacific, and the Pacific is the playground for US military, and Hawaii is a choke point for most of the shipping East Bound thru the pacific... . It would be quite literally stupid for any South American leader to think they could start a war with the US with support coming in from China via an ocean that was controlled by the United States...
Economically, Trade and Politic are two separate entity, you can have trade partner with everybody, but you can only have one political affiliation, just because someone is trading with you does not mean they have to buy your political goal as well. In fact, if history are any sort of indication, the situation is almost always opposite. People would simply take your money, and run.
Another point being, even China beats US in term of GDP in any way or form, it would still be decades before China become prosper, do bear in mind even with China beating US GDP in number, China also beat US in population, by a very big margin, and what do you think Chinese would do? Go around the world and start making trouble? Or stay home and work on her other population? What do you think?

不得不佩服人们在互联网上的天真。
如果中国真的成为世界第一，那么什么都不会发生，美国的外交政策也会保持不变，唯一改变的是中国人比以前更富有，但也不是很多。

人们需要意识到，美国的外交政策是出于美国的国家利益，而不是中国，中国能够远程影响美国外交政策的唯一途径是军事上比美国强大，成为世界头号军事强国。问题是，这不会很快发生，不会在未来的50年之内。甚至我怀疑这是否真的会发生。但是，即使中国的军事实力超过了美国，或者在某种程度上超过了北约，这也并不意味着中国会干涉美国的外交政策。

更搞笑的是，看到有人说中国在南美的影响力将导致与美国之间的代理人战争，任何南美政府，无论他们多么愚蠢，实际上会完全指望中国的支持与美国开战吗? 看看地图，美国可以从陆地入侵线路到任何一个南美国家。而中国必须越过太平洋，而太平洋是美国军队的游乐场，夏威夷是太平洋大部分航运东行的一个咽喉。对于任何一个南美国家的领导人来说，如果他们认为可以通过由美国控制的海洋得到来自中国的支持，发动与美国的战争，那是相当愚蠢的。

在经济上，贸易和政治是两个独立的实体，你可以和每个国家成为贸易伙伴，但是你只能有一个政治阵营，仅仅因为有人和你贸易并不意味着他们也要接受你的政治目标。事实上，如果历史有过某种迹象，那情况也是相反的。人们只会接受你的钱，然后跑开。

另一点是，即使中国在GDP方面以任何方式或形式超过了美国，在中国繁荣发展之前还需要几十年的时间，记住，即使中国GDP在数字上超过美国，但中国也在人口方面超过美国，超过很多。你认为中国人到时候会做什么？环游世界，开始制造麻烦?还是留在家里致力于它的其他人口？你怎么认为?

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