（上）当中国成为第一的时候会发生什么？ [巴基斯坦媒体]

WHEN CHINA BECOMES NO.1, WHAT HAPPENS THEN?

当中国成为第一的时候会发生什么？




Let me begin with three incontrovertible facts. First, China will become the No. 1 economic power in the world.
Second, most Americans, like most Westerners, view China's rise with great foreboding.
Third, the role that China will play as the No. 1 economic power has not been cast in stone.
How the world, especially America, reacts to China's rise will help to influence China's behaviour in the future.
If we make the right decisions now, China could well emerge as a benign great power (even though most Americans find this virtually inconceivable).
At the same time, many Americans are not aware that some recent American actions have set bad precedents for China to follow when it becomes No. 1.
The first such American action was to launch quantitative easing (QE).
Until the onset of the crisis, Chinese leaders were happy that the United States and China had settled into a comfortable pattern of mutual dependence. China relied on the US markets to generate exports and jobs. The US relied on China to buy US Treasury bills to fund US deficit spending.
This Chinese confidence of mutual interdependence was shattered when the US Fed announced the first round of QE measures in November 2008. The Fed's actions demonstrated that the US did not have to rely on China to buy US Treasury bills.
The second American action was to engage in extraterrestrial application of domestic laws. It did this when it prosecuted several banks, including HSBC, RBS, UBS, Credit Suisse and Standard Chartered.
In 2012, the US fined Standard Chartered US$340 million (about S$450 million) for making payments to Iran. Most Americans reacted with equanimity to the bank being fined for dealing with the "evil" Iranian regime.
But Standard Chartered, domiciled in the United Kingdom, had broken no British laws. Nor had it violated any mandatory sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council.
However, many in the West will not rest easy till China transforms itself into a liberal democracy.
They assume that if China's system is changed and a Western-style democracy emerges in China, this will be an unmitigated good. This is a dangerous assumption to make.
A more democratic China is likely to be a more nationalist China. A more nationalist China could well be a more assertive and aggressive China. In this sense, the Chinese Communist Party is delivering a major global public good by restraining nationalist forces and voices in China.
Present calm is a miracle
SO FAR, as we know well, China has emerged peacefully. This is a result of wise Chinese leadership. However, it is also a result of wise American policies towards China.
This explains the unusual calm we see in Sino-American relations. Normally, when the world's largest emerging power is about to pass the world's greatest power, we should be seeing a rising level of tensions between the two. It would therefore be perfectly normal to see rising tensions between the US and China today.
Instead, we see the exact opposite: perfectly normal and calm relations.
The US began engaging China seriously during the Cold War when China became a valuable ally against the Soviet Union.
The US helped China to gain membership to the World Trade Organisation.
And the US has also helped China by being sensitive to the issues in Taiwan - indeed, coming down very hard on the leaders of Taiwan when they tried to push for independence.
The US has also been extraordinarily generous to open the doors of its prestigious educational institutions to students from China.
In the 2013-2014 academic year, 275,000 Chinese students were enrolled at American universities. Future historians will be puzzled by this massive act of generosity as many of these students then return to China to propel China forward in areas ranging from space exploration to defence.
All these wise American actions have resulted in a miracle: a calm US-China relationship.
However, miracles are by definition historical aberrations. They don't last.
Soon, we will revert to the historical norm and see rising competition between the world's two greatest powers.
To avoid rising competition, both sides need to learn from the mistakes they have made. China needs to learn lessons from its assertiveness vis-a-vis Japan and its Asean neighbours. America needs to ask whether its recent actions have served as a good role model for China.
This is why I began with the three stories on QE, extra-territorial application of domestic laws and denying access to Swift.
They illustrate why America should study its own recent deeds through a simple lens: Would it like China to replicate these deeds when China becomes No. 1? The reason for using this lens is that when China clearly becomes No. 1, it is likely to replicate America's deeds, not its words.
America was able to and could threaten to act unilaterally in the three cases I cited because it is clear that America is still the reigning Emperor of the global financial system.
It unilaterally controls the global reserve currency, the US dollar. In theory, the US dollar is a global public good but, in practice, it is an instrument of American domestic and foreign policies.
There is therefore the big danger of the US using global public goods, like the US dollar, international banking transactions, and the Swift system, for unilateral purposes and ends.
It will encourage the world, especially China, to work towards creating an alternative global order. If that happens, the world will become a far messier place.
One reason why the world has been remarkably stable and peaceful over the past few decades is that the rest of the world, especially Asians, had agreed to accept and work with the Western-created family of global institutions, including the UN, International Monetary Fund and the World Bank.
They agreed to do so because they believed that these institutions were serving global interests, not Western interests. However, the US has on several occasions made unwise moves to undermine these global institutions. And every action that the US makes to undermine these institutions could now be replicated by China.
If America seeks to strengthen a global order that serves global interests, China will do the same.
If this happens, nothing will change fundamentally when China becomes No. 1. We will continue to live in a safe and predictable world. In other words, China could emerge as a stakeholder that is as responsible as the US.
Since America is still the No. 1 power in the world, the big question that America should ask itself is a simple one: Would it feel comfortable living in a world where China behaves just as America did when it was the sole superpower?
The writer is dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, National University of Singapore. This essay is based on the Albert H. Gordon lecture he delivered at Harvard University's Kennedy School of Government on April 8.

让我从三个无可争议的事实开始。
首先，中国将成为世界第一经济强国。
第二，像大多数西方人一样，大多数美国人对中国的崛起充满了不祥的预感。
第三，中国将扮演世界第一经济大国角色的事情还没有完全确定。

世界，尤其是美国，如何应对中国的崛起，将会影响中国未来的行为。
如果我们现在做出正确的决定，中国很可能会成为一个良性的大国(尽管大多数美国人认为这是难以想象的)。
与此同时，许多美国人没有意识到，美国最近的一些行为已经为中国在成为第一之后，树立了不良的先例。

美国采取的第一个行动是实施量化宽松(QE)。
在危机爆发之前，中国领导人很高兴美国和中国已经达成了一种相互依赖的舒适模式。中国依靠美国市场来创造出口和就业。美国依赖中国购买美国国债，为美国的赤字支出提供资金。

当美联储在2008年11月宣布第一轮量化宽松政策时，中国对相互依赖的信心被打破。美联储的行动表明，美国不必依赖中国购买美国国债。
美国的第二项行动是使国内法律在外部适用。当它起诉数家银行，包括汇丰银行、苏格兰皇家银行、瑞银、瑞士信贷和渣打银行时，它就这么做了。

2012年，美国向渣打银行罚款3.4亿美元，用于支付给伊朗。大多数美国人对银行因处理“邪恶的”伊朗政权而被罚款的行为感到平静。但在英国注册的渣打银行没有违反任何英国法律。它也没有违反联合国安全理事会施加的任何强制性制裁。

然而，由于几乎所有国际支付都必须通过美国支付机制，渣打银行因违反美国法律而被罚款。简而言之，美国正将美国法律适用于非美国公民和在美国以外运营的非美国公司。

美国的第三个行动是通过拒绝他们进入环球同业银行金融电讯协会（SWIFT）系统来威胁各国。由于所有国际支付都必须通过SWIFT系统，任何被拒绝使用SWIFT的国家都会被抛入黑洞，无法进行任何类型的国际贸易和投资。

中国的复兴梦
我先讲这三个故事，因为当美国人在思考中国应该如何作为第一大国的时候，他们也应该思考美国是否是世界第一强国的典范。这是我在结论中提出的一个大问题。

为了得出结论，让我来回答第一个关键问题:当中国成为第一的时候，中国领导人的目标和追求是什么?
与前苏联领导人不同，中国领导人无意证明苏联共产主义制度的优越性。所以，如果不是共产主义，那他们试图促进的，是什么? 答案很简单，他们想要复兴中华文明。

如果说有什么能激励中国领导人的话，那就是他们对中国在过去150年遭受的许多屈辱的记忆。如果有一种信念驱使着他们，那就是简单的: “不再屈辱”。 这就是为什么他们想让中国再次成为一个伟大而强大的国家。

然而，在中国将自己变成一个自由民主国家之前，西方的许多国家不会轻易罢休。
他们认为，如果中国的体制发生改变，而西方的民主制度在中国出现，这将是一件好事。这是一个危险的假设。

一个更加民主的中国可能会是一个更加民族主义的中国。一个更具民族主义色彩的中国很可能是一个更加武断和好斗的中国。从这个意义上讲，TG通过遏制中国的民族主义力量和声音，传递了一个重要的全球公共利益。

现在的平静是一个奇迹
到目前为止，众所周知，中国已经和平崛起。这是中国明智领导的结果。然而，这也是美国对华政策明智的结果。这解释了我们在中美关系中看到的异乎寻常的平静。通常，当世界上最大的新兴力量即将超过世界上最强大的国家时，我们应该看到两国之间的紧张局势正在升级。因此，如果美国和中国之间的关系日益紧张是完全正常的。

然而，我们看到的恰恰相反:完全正常和平静的关系。
冷战期间，美国开始与中国进行认真接触，当时中国已成为对抗苏联的宝贵盟友。
美国帮助中国加入世界贸易组织。
美国也在敏感的台湾问题上帮助中国——事实上，当台湾领导人试图争取独立时，他们对台湾领导人的态度非常强硬。
美国也非常慷慨地向来自中国的学生敞开了其享有盛誉的教育机构的大门。

2013-2014学年，美国大学录取了275000名中国学生。未来的历史学家将会对这一巨大的慷慨行为感到困惑，因为这些学生中的许多人会回到中国，推动中国在从太空探索到国防等领域的发展。
所有这些明智的美国行动都带来了一个奇迹:一种平静的美中关系。

然而，奇迹是由历史的偏差所决定的。他们不持久。
很快，我们将恢复到历史常态，看到世界上两个大国之间的竞争日益激烈。

为了避免竞争加剧，双方都需要从他们所犯的错误中吸取教训。中国需要从其对日本及其东盟邻国的武断中吸取教训。美国需要问问，它最近的行为是否为中国树立了良好的榜样。这就是为什么我从量化宽松、国外适用国内法和拒绝获得SWIFT三个故事开始讲的原因。

他们解释了为什么美国应该通过一个简单的镜头来研究自己最近的行为: 当中国成为世界第一的时候，它是否会像美国一样复制这些行为? 使用这一镜头的原因是，当中国明显会成为第一，它很可能复制美国的行为，而不是它的话。

在我提到的三种情况中，美国能够并且可能威胁采取单方面行动，因为很明显，美国仍然是全球金融体系的霸主。

它单方面控制全球储备货币——美元。从理论上讲，美元是全球公共产品，但实际上，美元是美国国内外政策的工具。因此，美国利用全球公共产品(如美元、国际银行交易和Swift系统)的巨大危险，是出于单方面目的和结果的。

它将鼓励世界，尤其是中国，努力创造一种可替代的全球秩序。如果这种情况发生，世界将变得更加混乱。在过去几十年里，世界变得非常稳定和和平的一个原因是，世界其他国家，尤其是亚洲，已经同意接受并与西方创建的全球机构大家庭合作，包括联合国、国际货币基金组织和世界银行。

他们同意这样做，是因为他们相信这些机构是在为全球利益服务，而不是为西方利益服务。然而，美国曾多次做出不明智的举动，破坏这些全球性机构。而美国为破坏这些机构所采取的每一项行动，现在都可能被中国复制。

如果美国寻求加强一个服务于全球利益的全球秩序，中国也会这么做。
如果这种情况发生，当中国成为世界第一的时候，一切都不会发生根本性的改变。我们将继续生活在一个安全、可预测的世界。换句话说，中国可能会成为像美国一样负责任的利益相关者。

由于美国仍然是世界头号强国，美国应该简单的问自己一个问题:生活在中国成为唯一的超级大国的世界中，中国的行为和美国一样，美国会感到舒服吗？

本文作者是新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长。这篇文章是基于他于4月8日在哈佛大学肯尼迪政府学院发表的艾伯特•h•戈登的演讲。

KingWest
FULL MEMBER 土 比
No world power will give their power to another country for free. Sparta vs Athens, Germany vs UK (ww1) etc etc. China knows this and thats why they are trying to become #1 under the radar, without pushing the Americans too much. So I dont think the question is if China will behave, but rather if the US will behave if China becomes #1. Will the US use military options (which I doubt) or more economic options and perhaps try to weaken China from the inside?
Secondly and more important. The USA is a great country because its a melting pot of different cultures. There are blacks, whites, Asians , Hispanics etc etc. And this is the reason the USA cant claim to be racial superior to any other country. China is a homogenic country, and that can indeed bring problems if the Chinese decide to look down on other nationalities.
One thing is for sure, the rise of China is bad for Russia. Thats why the Russians are afraid that one day, China will dominate the Russian far east.

没有哪个世界强国会随意的将权利交给其他国家。就像斯巴达VS雅典，德国VS英国(一战)等等。中国知道得很清楚，这就是为什么他们想要低调的成为第一，别把美国人逼得太急。所以我认为问题不是中国是否会采取行动，而是如果中国成为了第一美国是否会采取行动。美国是否会使用军事手段(我对此表示怀疑)或更多的使用经济手段，或者试图从内部削弱中国?

第二，这点更重要。美国是个伟大的国家，因为它是个不同文化的熔炉。美国有黑人、白人、亚洲人和拉美人等等。这就是为什么美国不会宣称自己比其他国家种族优越的原因。中国是个同种国家，如果中国决定轻视其他民族，这确实会带来问题。

有一件事是肯定的，中国的崛起对俄罗斯不利。这就是为什么俄罗斯人害怕有一天中国会主宰俄罗斯远东地区。

CAPRICORN-88
FULL MEMBER 新加 马来
In fact the opposite is true. Russia is looking forward to China becoming the No.1 economy of the World.
China may dominate Russia Far East or perhaps the world but look who is more concern.
IMO Turkey is naturally worried because she has just offend Russia and Russia is a strategic military partner of China e.g. both nations conducted their naval exercise in the Mediterranean Sea. Incidentally during the exercise it was revealed by RT that the Chinese naval warships can detected the Russian Kilo submarines. And the million dollar question i: Will the Christian NATO rescue the Islamic Turkey?
Hence IMO when Vietnam deployed their new Kilo submarine in the shallow SCS, the Sunda Shelf it is suicidal as the Chinese Navy can easily destroyed them with her ASROC since they can detect them. Maybe that is why China never complained or attempted to stop Russia from supplying either the SU-30 or Kilo submarine to Vietnam.

事实正好相反。俄罗斯期待着中国成为世界第一大经济体。
中国可能会主导俄罗斯远东地区，或者可能主导世界，但看看谁更担心。
在我看来土耳其当然要担心，因为她刚得罪了俄罗斯，而俄罗斯和中国是战略军事伙伴，例如他们两国在地中海举行了军事演习。顺便说一下，在演习中，中国海军军舰可以探测到俄罗斯的基洛级潜艇。我的问题是: 基督教的北约会拯救伊斯兰的土耳其吗?

因此在我看来，当越南在浅浅的南中国海部署他们的新基洛级潜艇时，他们这是在自杀，因为中国海军可以探测到它们，然后可以用反潜火箭轻易的摧毁它们。也许这就是为什么中国从未抗议或试图阻止俄罗斯向越南提供苏-30或基洛级潜艇的原因。

seven7seven
FULL MEMBER
I think you have it backwards with what you regard as what is being good and what is bad. It is the very fact that USA is racially divided is what will cause social disorder, when an inevitable civil crisis erupts in the US. USA is a racial time-bomb waiting to go off. When all those welfare takers don't get their money because USA can no longer afford it, because their Dollar racket is over, it's riot time!
China being mostly homogeneously Han is a real glue that strengthens national unity and may it remain that way. China should never follow the West and allow in immigrants so easily. Only take the brightest and best from abroad.
You're right in saying that China is trying to become number one, under the radar. Anybody who has any economic nous knows China has been the biggest economy in real terms (not phony, inflated Dollar-denominated nominal GDP estimates) for a long time now. China will remain low-key but won't be pushed around by US or its lapdogs (Vietnam, Pinoys, Japan, etc.). China already has enough teeth to give anybody a good bite, if they get out of line.
China's goal isn't to be just number one or better than US. It's to be strong and prosperous as the Chinese people can be, without having to worry about foreigners meddling in their domestic affairs. That's the Chinese dream!

我认为你把什么是好的什么是坏的弄颠倒了。事实上，当美国不可避免地爆发一场国内危机时，种族分裂就是导致社会混乱的原因。美国是个将要爆炸的种族定时炸弹。当那些白享福利的人拿不到钱、美国再也负担不起时，就到了暴动的时候！

中国基本上都是同种的汉人，这是真正的粘合力，加强了民族的团结。中国绝不应该学习西方如此轻易地接纳移民。只应该从国外接纳最聪明的和最好的人才。

你说的没错，中国正试图低调的成为世界第一。任何有经济常识的人都知道，中国已经成为真正意义上最大的经济体很长一段时间了(不是以虚假的、膨胀的美元计价的名义GDP)。中国仍会保持低调，但不会被美国或它的走狗(越南、菲律宾、日本等)摆布。如果他们越线，中国已经有了足够的牙齿给他们好看。

中国的目标不仅仅是成为第一或比美国好。中国会变得强大而繁荣，无须担心外国干涉内政。这就是中国梦。

PAKISTANFOREVER
SENIOR MEMBER 巴
For all the negativity towards us since the creation of Pakistan some 69 years ago, China has been our ONLY TRUE ally and friend. Sorry I made a mistake, China is not Pakistan's friend but Pakistan's Brother. China is now family to us. China becoming no.1 world power will be absolutely fabulous for us. When China's becomes no.1, us Pakistanis will celebrate and party all night long. As a ultra patriotic Pakistani, I have the same feelings for our brother China as I do for Pakistan.

自从69年前巴基斯坦建国以来，所有国家对我们都是消极的，只有中国一直是我们唯一真正的盟友和朋友。抱歉我犯了个错误，不应该说是朋友，而应是兄弟。中国现在是我们的大家庭。中国成为世界第一大国对我们确实是极好的。当中国成为第一，我们巴基斯坦人会彻夜狂欢庆祝。作为一个极端爱国的巴基斯坦人，我对我们兄弟中国的感情和我对巴基斯坦的感情是一样的。

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